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The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
byregistrations_suck ( 1075251 ) writes:
It took eight years to go from 1% to 2% (by April 2021), then just 2.2 years to reach 3% (June 2023), and a mere 0.7 years to hit 4% (February 2024)," notes the report. "Now, here we are, at over 5% in the USA! This exponential growth suggests that we're on a promising upward trend."
That is not exponential growth.
It isn't even close.
bygardyloo ( 512791 ) writes:
It's far faster than exponential (assuming that's 1% of a constant-size market, then 2% of the same market, etc.). The first doubling time was 8 years; an exponential growth process would keep the same doubling time, but it took another 2.9 years to double again.
So your "not even close" is correct, in that exponential growth is far slower than whatever this is.
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byJimBowen ( 885772 ) writes:
I suspect, much of this is driven by Microsoft, who are aggressively pushing features that absolutely nobody wants e.g. ads in the Start menu, Recall, and forced use of a MS-cloud account.
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byOrffen ( 1994222 ) writes:
The last straw for me was CoPilot in Notepad. What's next? CoPilot in Terminal, so you can "prompt engineer" your CLI commands?
byKangburra ( 911213 ) writes:
OMG don't give them ideas :-(
byomnichad ( 1198475 ) writes:
Well I'm sure not ever going to actually remember PowerShell syntax. It's so verbose I'm surprised they didn't just use XML.
●rrent threshold.
byWizard Drongo ( 712526 ) writes:
I suspect itâ(TM)s more the collapse in sales of desktop pcâ(TM)s. The actual number of installs isnâ(TM)t much higher but there are far fewer windows boxes being sold etc.
byeclectro ( 227083 ) writes:
People can get everything done on their phones now. Why boot up a clunky old desktop all the time??
byShaitan ( 22585 ) writes:
A clunky old desktop? You must be crazy.
A phone is convenient the UI is dogshit compared to a desktop with a full blown keyboard, 10 key, mouse, and two or three monitors. Mobiles win on portability and the fact social media has addicted people to the platform they definitely are not a better or less clunky UI. Even a laptop keyboard and touchpad is far more clunky to work with than a desktop or docked laptop which is effectively a desktop when discussing UI.
I think Meta is moving toward the future. AR glasses and a phone-sized computing pod. You can have virtual keyboards, hand gestures, and LLM interpreted voice directives not to mention interaction in three dimensional space. That amounts to a superior interface vs the desktop except for fatigue. It's really hard to beat relaxing in an ergonomic chair and tiny little finger and wrist flicks on the fatigue side for a 14hr coding session.
I think this will be addressed with changes to workflows and applications to align with the new UIs and reduce fatigue and repetition. Code is itself an interface built in the desktop world. There is nothing stopping us from producing other paradigms for designing and producing logic.
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bydaniel23 ( 605413 ) writes:
insightful
byShaitan ( 22585 ) writes:
I think there is some truth to that even though theoretically visual interaction is faster than perception of touch.
But have you ever played table tennis in VR? You feel the contact with the ball, you even feel it appropriately for how hard the impact was and where on the paddle, etc. That is replicating a real physical interaction and the kind of haptics we have in VR controllers is has some limitations for doing that. I'm sure the brain is filling in some of the blanks.
But for NEW media and interfaces tim
● current threshold.
byomnichad ( 1198475 ) writes:
or docked laptop which is effectively a desktop when discussing UI.
Or docked smartphone at this point, or at least we're getting there. The average user doesn't need more computing power than a smartphone, just better ergonomics.
● current threshold.
byjjbenz ( 581536 ) writes:
It's painful doing most things on a phone, I treat mine as a device of last resort.
bywhitroth ( 9367 ) writes:
We'll wait until you need glasses, or stronger prescriptions for your glasses - you know, when you're over 30, and less concerned about "being cool", and see how you feel about doing things on that tiny screen.
Oh, and getting carpal tunnel from the virtual keyboard.
byomnichad ( 1198475 ) writes:
I'm over 40, but very nearsighted due to years of working in tech - swipe typing is not too bad on the fingers for moderate amounts of typing. I do have an ergonomic split keyboard and dual 27" monitors for "big jobs" but I don't need it much for routine messaging and work tasks. My phone is my portable office when I'm out of the house. I just wish for more brightness when in bright sunlight conditions, but OLED runs too warm as it is on a hot summer day.
byregistrations_suck ( 1075251 ) writes:
I'm pretty blind and I have glaucoma on top of that.
But I have to tell you, it's hard to beat a phone when I am sitting in bed looking at web pages and email, playing some poker or watching a movie or tv show (so far today, I've done all of those things). And since nobody is looking at me, you can rest assured that it has nothing to do with "being cool". But on that note, how does being on a phone equate to being cool? My impression is that most of the time, it just makes one look like a dipshit. Am I in th
● current threshold.
byking*jojo ( 9276931 ) writes:
and forced use of a MS-cloud account.
This is exactly why my nieces (ages 9 and 6) are currently linux users. My sister discovered the 9-year-old took a photo of the 6-year-old au naturel which was automatically uploaded to the cloud, and she bugged
I know that apple is sticking to their story that some 1337 haxOrs combed through millions and millions of accounts to find a couple hundred titty-pics of celebs (with many of the celebs swearing they deleted said pics), but no one is really buying it.
byXenx ( 2211586 ) writes:
Growth from 4% to 5% slowed down in comparison to 3% to 4%. Overall, it may fit the colloquial use of exponential growth. However, it does not fit the mathematical.
byomnichad ( 1198475 ) writes:
Some exponents are > 0 and 1.
byomnichad ( 1198475 ) writes:
OK, I get it. > is needed here. Some exponents are > 0 and < 1.
byXenx ( 2211586 ) writes:
Sure, but that would be entirely irrelevant to the definition of exponential growth.
byregistrations_suck ( 1075251 ) writes:
Sure. But that's not "exponential growth", by any standard sense of the term.
bymesterha ( 110796 ) writes:
It's far faster than exponential (assuming that's 1% of a constant-size market, then 2% of the same market, etc.). The first doubling time was 8 years; an exponential growth process would keep the same doubling time, but it took another 2.9 years to double again.
So your "not even close" is correct, in that exponential growth is far slower than whatever this is.
Four data points, it must be a cubic polynomial...
bygardyloo ( 512791 ) writes:
:) Of course you're right, which means extrapolation is gonna be a /real/ shit-show.
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