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byaccount_deleted ( 4530225 ) writes:
Comment removed based on user account deletion
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bydrnb ( 2434720 ) writes:
If the reality is that China is producing more cars than they can sell, that does not lead to a crash. It leads to them exporting more cars. EV's are a growing market in the world that will eventually have a demand for all that production capacity.
You are assuming these cars are exportable. Things designed for the domestic market can have safety, IP infringement, and other problems if one tries to export them.
You will find these cars at Chinese run worksites around the globe. But that'll just be gov't policy, not some sort of actual demand at these sites.
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bytimeOday ( 582209 ) writes:
By the same token, I was reading for years how China's construction market was the biggest bubble in history and was going to pop so hard the nation would be an economic black hole. Is that still going to happen or what?
bylinuxrocks123 ( 905424 ) writes:
Their property sector bubble popped in 2020: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/... [wikipedia.org]
They haven't recovered and have been going full Baghdad Bob with their GDP numbers in an attempt to hide the problem: https://www.atlanticcouncil.or... [atlanticcouncil.org]
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byRust Reducer ( 7979256 ) writes:
Not sure about the economic black hole and I can't be bothered to look up the hyperbole of the time, but it has been legitimate news for a long time and it doesn't look to be over yet: Evergrande collapse [bbc.com].
Often the truth lies between the argument someone is trying to make that is embellished and the reaction against that argument.
byblue trane ( 110704 ) writes:
Did they just print money to avoid a 2008-style panic?
If the Fed had bailed out Lehman would 2008 even have escalated to a panic?
bypackrat0x ( 798359 ) writes:
Lehman was a related, but separate problem from the housing bubble. It goes back to the Russian Ruble and Mexican Peso bailouts. The CEO wanted the same deal (privatized gains, socialized losses). Except this time he was a solo loser, not a group of banks with backing of the government. The CEO refused to change his demands, so the Federal Reserve had no choice but to let Lehman fail.
The housing bubble was popping with or without Lehman.
bythsths ( 31372 ) writes:
Exactly. I would expect better from the Atlantic, but here we are.
This is part of the plan. China has built up a huge EV industry in 18 years, a vast, diverse, vibrant, and innovate ecosystem and supply chain.
Now it needs to be trimmed down. The government has said repeatedly that there are too many EV companies, and they want only the best to survive.
So there will be a market concentration. Mergers, acquisitions, and bankruptcies are to be expected. The result will be a stronger industry with better qualit
byshilly ( 142940 ) writes:
Not merely "one of". The preeminent EV producing region. Europe is doing OK, Korea is doing well, Japan is way behind, and the US is going into a mad tailspin. China is ahead and will stay that way.
byRoccamOccam ( 953524 ) writes:
Far from the death nail in the industry...
Understandable phrasing (like "nail in the coffin"), but I think you were going for "death knell".
Death knell - the tolling of a bell to mark someone's death.
byshilly ( 142940 ) writes:
This is absolutely spot on. It's a shitty take from the Atlantic on a story that has been around for at least five years: the aggressive competition of the Chinese EV market, which is going to see some company failures in the years ahead. As opposed to the American way of bail outs. The notion that there is falling demand for Chinese EVs is absolutely a little lullaby that complacent US rich guys like to sing to themselves, but it bears no resemblance to the truth.
byblue trane ( 110704 ) writes:
"As opposed to the American way of bail outs."
Did China print money and give it to local governments to buy up empty Evergrande properties to prevent a crash on the scale everyone was predicting?
byshilly ( 142940 ) writes:
I should have been more specific and said “bail outs for the auto industry”
byAmiMoJo ( 196126 ) writes:
Indeed, lack of production has been a limiting factor in their exports so far.
Also the practice of pre-registering cars is commonplace in Europe. The dealer buys the car from themselves, registers it to themselves, and sells it "second hand" to the customer with only delivery miles on the clock. My current car was supposed to be like that, but they just registered it to me so it was brand new, but for the pre-registered price.
byParker Lewis ( 999165 ) writes:
Not, it's not: the first to talk about this oversupply was the Chinese GWM manufacturer, talking explicitly about a crash of several makers on Chinese market, like the building sector.
bydysonlu ( 907935 ) writes:
Western anti-China elites have been wishful thinking for the last two decades. China is always on the verge of collapse, according to their narrative.
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