NBD Program

Predicting Purchase Rates in Stationary Markets.

NBD Program
Predicting purchase rates in stationary markets

(b): 0.2
(w): 2.1
(t): 12 weeks

Penetration (b)
 1 day 1 week 4 weeks 12 weeks 24 weeks 48 weeks 365 days
 0.005  0.032     0.1      0.2    0.277    0.355    0.364

Purchase frequency (w)
 1 day 1 week 4 weeks 12 weeks 24 weeks 48 weeks 365 days
 1.015  1.106   1.401      2.1    3.036    4.729    5.007

Repat purchase (%)
 1 day 1 week 4 weeks 12 weeks 24 weeks 48 weeks 365 days
 2.966  16.82   40.99   61.646   71.615   78.885   79.597

Purchase frequency of buyers
 1 day 1 week 4 weeks 12 weeks 24 weeks 48 weeks 365 days
 1.028  1.184   1.634    2.548    3.666    5.596    5.908

Purchase frequency of new buyers
 1 day 1 week 4 weeks 12 weeks 24 weeks 48 weeks 365 days
 0.005  0.032   0.113    0.304    0.581    1.128    1.222

Proportion -

            1 day 1 week 4 weeks 12 weeks 24 weeks 48 weeks 365 days
not buying  0.995  0.968   0.900    0.800    0.723    0.645    0.636
buying once 0.005  0.029   0.073    0.106    0.114    0.112    0.111
twice       0.000  0.003   0.018    0.043    0.055    0.060    0.060
3 times     0.000  0.000   0.006    0.022    0.033    0.039    0.040
4 times     0.000  0.000   0.002    0.012    0.021    0.028    0.029
5 times     0.000  0.000   0.001    0.007    0.014    0.021    0.022

Proportion of sales due to those buying -

            1 day 1 week 4 weeks 12 weeks 24 weeks 48 weeks 365 days
buying once 0.970  0.820   0.522    0.252    0.135    0.067    0.061
twice       0.029  0.150   0.262    0.206    0.131    0.071    0.066
3 times     0.001  0.025   0.121    0.155    0.117    0.070    0.065
4 times     0.000  0.004   0.054    0.113    0.101    0.067    0.063
5 times     0.000  0.001   0.024    0.081    0.086    0.063    0.059

References

• East, R. and Wright, M. and Vanhuele, M. (2013). Consumer Behaviour: Applications in Marketing. SAGE Publications, pp. 72-85.

• Repeat-Buying: Facts,Theory and Applications, 2nd edn. A.S.C. Ehrenberg, 1988, London, Charles Griffin, ISBN 0 85264 287 3 Book Review: Repeat-Buying:Facts,Theory and Applications by A.S.C. Ehrenberg. Norman Pigden. The Statistician, Vol. 40, No. 3, Special Issue (1991), pp. 349-350.

• Brasini, S., Tassinari, F., & Tassinari, G. (1999). Marketing e pubblicità: metodi di analisi statistica. Il mulino, pp. 207-215.