Leprechaun economics: Difference between revisions

{{shortShort description|DistortionTerm used to describe a distortion of Ireland's GDP by Apple Inc restructuring}}

{{Use British Hiberno-English|date=SeptemberDecember 20182021}}

[[File:Paul Krugman-press conference Dec 07th, 2008-2.jpg|thumb|Nobel Prize-winning American economist [[Paul Krugman]], whose responsetweeton the 12 July 2016 christenedused the Irishterm, Leprechaun Economics affair.<ref name=Reuters/><ref name="bbgquint"/>]]

'''Leprechaun economics''' was a term coined by economist [[Paul Krugman]] to describe the 26.3 per cent rise in Irish 2015 [[Gross domestic product|GDP]], later revised to 34.4 per cent,{{efn|name=upgrade|The Central Statistics Office (Ireland) further restated Irish 2015 data several times in 2017–18; by September 2018, Irish 2015 GDP was a further 6.4% above the 12 July 2016 restatement, as listed in [[Modified gross national income#Irish GDP versus Modified GNI (2009–2017)|Irish GDP versus Modified GNI (2009–2017)]]. This was the highest post-war[[World War II]] annual GDP apparent growth of an OECD country.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg|title=The World Bank Database: Real GDP Data|publisher=[[The World Bank]]|date=2018|access-date=30 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830210157/https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg|archive-date=30 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>}} in a 12 July 2016 publication by the [[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)|Irish Central Statistics Office]] (CSO), restating 2015 Irish national accounts.<ref name="CSO1"/><ref name=X1/><ref name=X2/><ref name=X3/> TheAt termthat was coined by [[Nobel Prize]]–winning economist [[Paul Krugman]] to markpoint, the fact that the long-term distortion of Irish economic data by tax-driven accounting flows had reached a climax;.<ref name=Reuters/><ref name="bbgquint"/><ref name="Financial Times"/> byIn 2020, Krugman said the term was a feature of all [[tax havens]].<ref name=NYT7/>

While the event that caused the artificial Irish GDP growth occurred in Q1 2015, the Irish CSO had to delay its GDP revision, and redact the release of its regular economic data in 2016–2017 to protect the source's identity, as required by Irish law.<ref name="csoo"/> Only in Q1 2018 could economists confirm [[Apple Inc.|Apple]] as the source, <ref name="co1"/><ref name="patrick.smyth"/><ref name=IT9/> and that leprechaun economicsthis was the largest ever [[base erosion and profit shifting]] (BEPS) action,<ref name=FORTUNE/> as well asand the largest hybrid–[[tax inversion]] of a U.S. corporation.<ref name="cofr"/><ref name=IT10/>

LeprechaunThe economicsevent marked the replacement of Ireland's prohibited BEPS tool, the [[Double Irish]], with the more powerful [[Double Irish arrangement#CAIA|Capital Allowances for Intangible Assets]] (CAIA) tool, or "[[Ireland as a tax haven#Green Jersey|Green Jersey]]".<ref name="patrick.smyth"/><ref name=IT9/> Apple used the CAIA BEPS tool to restructure out of its hybrid–Double Irish BEPS tool, on which the [[EU illegal State aid case against Apple in Ireland|EU Commission would levy a €13 billion fine in August 2016]] for illegal avoidance of Irish taxes.{{efn|name=findings|From a 9 January 2015 meeting with the EU Commission which was documented when the EU Commission published their full decision (S.A 38373), page 42 section 2.5.7 ''Apple's new corporate structure in Ireland as of 2015''.<ref name="eu1"/>}}<ref name="patrick.smyth"/><ref name=IT9/> As a result of Leprechaunthe action by economicsApple, a range of academics calculated that Ireland, already qualifiedheld asby asome "[[Taxto haven#Topbe 10a tax havens|major tax haven]]", was estimated by academics as the world's largest tax haven.<ref name="gbz"/><ref name="zuc10"/><ref name="zux"/><ref name="WPaidan.regan"/>

The "Leprechaun economics" incident had follow-on consequenceseffects. In September 2016, Ireland became the first of the major tax havens to be "blacklisted" by a [[G20]] economy, Brazil.<ref name=BRAZ/> In February 2017, Ireland replaced GDP with "[[Modified gross national income|Modified GNI (or GNI*)]]" (2017 Irish GDP was [[Modified gross national income#Irish GDP versus Modified GNI (2009–2017)|162%]] of 2017 Irish GNI*, where aswhereas EU–28 2017 GDP was 100% of GNI).<ref name=RTÉ5/><ref name="eurostat2">{{cite web|url=https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/-/sdg_08_10|title=Real GDP per capita|publisher=[[Eurostat]]|access-date=26 November 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181126221404/https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/-/sdg_08_10|archive-date=26 November 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> In December 2017, the U.S and the EU introduced [[Ireland as a tax haven#Countermeasures|countermeasures]]to the Irish BEPS tools.<ref name=R1/><ref name=R2/><ref name=R3/> In October 2018, Ireland introduced a "reverse Leprechaun tax", to discourage IP from leaving Ireland.<ref name="reverse"/> In 2018, the [[OECD]] showed that Ireland's public "[[Modified gross national income#2018 Debt metrics|debt metrics]]" differ dramatically depending on whether Debt-to-GDP, Debt-to-GNI* or Debt-per-Capita is used;<ref name="oecd"/><ref name="it1"/><ref name="irip"/> and in 2019, the [[IMF]] estimated 60 per cent of Irish [[foreign direct investment]] was "phantom".<ref name=IMF4/><ref name=CLIFF4/><ref name=IMF5/>

On the 12 July 2016, at 11am GMT, the [[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)|Central Statistics Office]] posted a data revision showing that 2015 Irish GDP data rose by 26.3 per cent{{efn|name=upgrade}} and 2015 Irish GNP rose by 18.7 per cent.<ref name="CSO1">{{cite web|url=http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/nie/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults2015/|title=National Income and Expenditure Annual Results 2015|author=CSO Statistical Release|publisher=[[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)]]|date=12 July 2016|access-date=19 January 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171122004553/http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/nie/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults2015/|archive-date=22 November 2017|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> Twenty four minutes later, at 11.24am GMT, [[Nobel Prize]]-winning economist [[Paul Krugman]] responded to the data- release by posting:

Over the 12 to 13 July 2016, the term ''leprechaun economics'' was used widely by the Irish and international media when discussing Ireland's revised 26.3% 2015 GDP growth rate.<ref name=X1>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-irelands-26pc-growth-spurt-laughed-off-as-farcical-34879232.html|title='Leprechaun economics' - Ireland's 26pc growth spurt laughed off as 'farcical'|newspaper=[[Irish Independent]]|date=13 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|author=Colm Kelpie|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180614021337/https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-irelands-26pc-growth-spurt-laughed-off-as-farcical-34879232.html|archive-date=14 June 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name=X2>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/concern-as-irish-growth-rate-dubbed-leprechaun-economics-1.2719676?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fconcern-as-irish-growth-rate-dubbed-leprechaun-economics-1.2719676|title=Concern as Irish growth rate dubbed 'leprechaun economics'|newspaper=[[Irish Times]]|date=13 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|author1=Eoin Burke Kennedy|author2=Ciarán Hancock|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319213828/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/concern-as-irish-growth-rate-dubbed-leprechaun-economics-1.2719676?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fconcern-as-irish-growth-rate-dubbed-leprechaun-economics-1.2719676|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name=X3>{{cite web|url=https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0723/804214-blog-story-behind-leprechaun-economics-fiasco/|title=Blog: The real story behind Ireland's 'Leprechaun' economics fiasco|publisher=[[RTÉ News]]|date=25 July 2017|access-date=29 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180320043640/https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0723/804214-blog-story-behind-leprechaun-economics-fiasco/|archive-date=20 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="Financial Times">{{cite news|url=https://www.ft.com/content/8a1ebc9c-4846-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab|title=Irish tell a tale of 26.3% growth spurt|newspaper=[[Financial Times]]|date=12 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|quote=Rate attributed to multinational inversions — or "leprechaun economics"|author=Vincent Boland|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319213733/https://www.ft.com/content/8a1ebc9c-4846-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.thejournal.ie/gdp-growth-leprechaun-economics-2876138-Jul2016/|title="Leprechaun economics" - experts aren't impressed with Ireland's GDP figures|newspaper=[[TheJournal.ie]]|date=13 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|author=Paul Hosford|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180413234859/http://www.thejournal.ie/gdp-growth-leprechaun-economics-2876138-Jul2016/|archive-date=13 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name=Reuters>{{cite web|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-economy/leprechaun-economics-leaves-irish-growth-story-in-limbo-idUSKCN0ZT21K|title='Leprechaun economics' leaves Irish growth story in limbo|publisher=[[Reuters News]]|author=Padraic Halpin|date=13 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180330012532/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-economy/leprechaun-economics-leaves-irish-growth-story-in-limbo-idUSKCN0ZT21K|archive-date=30 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="bbgquint"/> ''Leprechaun economics'' became a label for the Irish 2015 GDP 26.3% growth rate, and has been as such by a diverse range of sources.<ref name="lancet">{{cite journal|url=https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(18)30461-6.pdf|title=Putting Ireland's health spending into perspective|journal=[[The Lancet]]|date=March 2018|volume=391|issue=10123|pages=833–834|quote=Similarly, health spending as a percentage of GDP declined sharply in 2015, despite an increase in health spending, as Irish GDP increased by 26% (a figure that spawned the phrase leprechaun economics)|doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30461-6|pmid=29508738|last1=Turner|first1=B.|s2cid=3741394|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/everything-you-need-to-know-about-ireland-s-economy/ | title= Everything you need to know about Ireland's economy | author=Douglas Broom | website=[[World Economic Forum]] | date=19 March 2019 | access-date=30 January 2020 | quote='Leprechaun economics'}}</ref> In December 2019, the ''[[Irish Times]]'' named "Leprechaun Economics", as one of its "Top 10 business stories of the decade".<ref name=IT10>{{cite news | url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/top-10-business-stories-of-the-decade-1.4119566 | title=Top 10 business stories of the decade | author=Eoin Burke-Kennedy | date=27 December 2019 | access-date=28 January 2020 | newspaper=[[Irish Times]]}}</ref>

In March 2018, the first paper was published in an established international economic journal - in this case, the ''[[New Political Economy (journal)|New Political Economy]]'', - with ''leprechaun economics'' in its title: "Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics? The Politics of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe".<ref>{{cite journal|title=Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics? The Politics of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe|date=March 2018|author1=Aidan Regan|author2=Samuel Brazys|volume=23|issue=2|pages=223–238|journal=[[New Political Economy (journal)|New Political Economy]]|doi=10.1080/13563467.2017.1370447|s2cid=157109256|url=http://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201701.pdf}}</ref> By September 2018, the term ''leprechaun economics'' had been used 83 times during debates in the Irish [[Dáil Éireann]].<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/find/|title=Dail Eireann Oireachtas Debates: Search|access-date=26 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826052922/https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/find/|archive-date=26 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

Since July 2016, ''leprechaun economics'' has also been used many times (andincluding by Krugman himself), to refer to distorted or unsound economic data outsideof Ireland, including by:

The use of an ethnically charged term to describe a tax system has been criticized. In June 2021, the Irish Ambassador to the US, [[Daniel Mulhall]], wrote a letter to the ''New York Times'' saying, "This is not the first time your columnist has used the word 'leprechaun' when referring to Ireland, and I see it as my duty to point out that this represents an unacceptable slur." <ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0612/1227743-columnist-leprechaun-us-ireland/ | author=Brian O'Donovan | author-link=Brian O'Donovan | title=NYT columnist's 'leprechaun' reference criticised | website=[[RTÉ News]] | date=12 June 2021 | publisher=Raidió Teilifís Éireann | access-date=12 June 2021}}</ref>

While the Double Irish iswas a widely used Irish BEPS tool, Apple's Irish subsidiary, ASI, used a hybrid version approved by the Irish [[Revenue Commissioners|Revenue]], which the EU Commission argued was Statestate aid. In September 2016, the Central Statistics Office again refuteddenied this claim and repeated its assertion that the growth was from a range of sources including aircraft leasing.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-not-all-down-to-apple-move-insists-cso-35034545.html|title='Leprechaun Economics' not all down to Apple move, insists CSO|quote=Last night, CSO statistician Andrew McManus insisted that the earlier guidance had been correct. "There were a number of factors involved. That was the situation then and now," he said.|newspaper=Irish Independent|date=9 September 2016|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319214126/https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-not-all-down-to-apple-move-insists-cso-35034545.html|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

The use by Ireland of complex data protection and data privacy laws, such as contained in the 1993 Statistics Act, to protect Irish BEPS tools and Irish corporate tax avoidance schemes is documented by ''tax justice'' groups. (see [[Ireland as a tax haven#Captured state|captured state]]). The Irish Central Statistics Office was accused of "[[putting on the green jersey]]" to hide Apple's tax planning schemes, by some Irish political opposition groups.<ref>{{cite book|title='Leprechaun economics' has damaged the reputation of Ireland's economic data|author=Pearse Doherty|publisher=[[Sinn Féin]]|date=November 2016|author-link=Pearse Doherty}}</ref> The Central Statistics Office (Ireland) did not list [[Modified gross national income|Modified GNI]] (discussed later) in their ''Key Summary Economic Indicitors'' for September 2018, but only quote GDP, GNP and Debt-to-GDP.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.cso.ie/indicators/Maintable.aspx|title=Key Economic Indicators|publisher=[[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)]]|date=2018|access-date=1 September 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826220045/https://www.cso.ie/indicators/Maintable.aspx|archive-date=26 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

In 2010, as part of Ireland's ECB bailout, Eurostat began tracking the distortion of Ireland's national accounts by BEPS flows. By 2011, [[Eurostat]] showed that Ireland's ratio of [[Gross national income|GNI]] to [[GDP]], had fallen to 80% (i.e. Irish GDP was 125% of Irish GNI, or artificially inflated by 25%). Only Luxembourg, who ranked 1st on Hines' 2010 list of global tax havens,<ref name="h1"/> was lower at 73% (i.e. Luxembourg GDP was 137% of Luxembourg GNI). Eurostat's GNI/GDP table (see graphic) showed EU GDP is equal to EU GNI for almost every EU country, and for the ''aggregate'' EU–27 average.<ref name="gnx1">{{cite web |author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]] |date=29 April 2013 |title=International GNI to GDP Comparisons |url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2013/04/gdp-and-international-comparisons.html |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319213831/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2013/04/gdp-and-international-comparisons.html |archive-date=19 March 2018 |access-date=19 March 2018 |publisher=Economic Incentives |df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="ber">{{cite web|url=https://www.socialeurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/p_imk_wp_175_2017.pdf|author=Heike Joebges|title=Crisis Recovery in a Country With a High Presence of Foreign-Owned Companies: The Case of Ireland|publisher=IMK Macroeconomic Policy Institute, [[Hans-Böckler-Stiftung]]|date=January 2017|access-date=30 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190412082814/https://www.socialeurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/p_imk_wp_175_2017.pdf|archive-date=12 April 2019|url-status=dead|df=dmy-all}}</ref> A 2015 Eurostat report showed that from 2010 to 2015, almost 23% of Ireland's GDP was now represented by untaxed multinational net royalty payments, thus implying that Irish GDP was now circa 130% of Irish GNI (e.g. artificially inflated by 30%).<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe-points-finger-at-ireland-over-tax-avoidance-1.3417948|title=Europe points finger at Ireland over tax avoidance|newspaper=Irish Times|date=7 March 2018|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180307095256/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe-points-finger-at-ireland-over-tax-avoidance-1.3417948|archive-date=7 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

InApriApril 2018, Eurostat welcomed GNI*, but showed it could not eliminate all BEPS effects (e.g. as the distortion in OECD [[Modified gross national income#2018 Debt metrics|Irish debt metrics]] showed).<ref name="eurostat1">{{cite web|url=https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cros/system/files/euronaissue2-2016-art2.pdf|title=Globalisation at work in statistics — Questions arising from the 'Irish case'|publisher=[[EuroStat]]|author1=Silke Stapel-Weber|author2=John Verrinder|quote=Nevertheless the rise in [Irish] GNI is still very substantial because the additional income flows of the companies (interest and dividends) concerned are considerably smaller than the value added of their activities|page=31|date=December 2017|access-date=24 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180428205432/https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cros/system/files/euronaissue2-2016-art2.pdf|archive-date=28 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:leftright"

|+ style="text-align: left;" | Table 1: EstimateEstimates of profits shifted through Apple's Irish subsidiary, Apple Sales International ("ASI") from 2004 to 2014.<ref name="co1"/>

!style="width:95px;text-align:leftcenter"|Year<br />

!style="background:#cfc;width:95px;text-align:leftcenter"|ASI Profit<br />Shifted <br>(USD m)

!style="width:120px;text-align:leftcenter"|Average<br />€/$ rate

!style="background:#cfc;width:120px;text-align:leftcenter"|ASI Profit<br />Shifted <br>(EUR m)

!style="width:120px;text-align:leftcenter"|Irish Corp.<br />Tax Rate

!style="background:#cfc;width:120px;text-align:leftcenter"|Irish Corp. Tax<br />Avoided <br>(EUR m)

By April 2018, economists confirmed Coffey's analysis, and estimated Apple ''onshored'' USD 300 billion of IP from Jersey in Q1 2015 in the largest recorded BEPS action in history.<ref name=FORTUNE>{{cite magazine | url=https://fortune.com/2020/01/08/corporate-tax-haven-laws-loopholes/ | title=New Laws Meant to Close Down Tax Havens and Shut Loopholes Could Have the Opposite Effect | date=8 January 2020 | access-date=7 February 2020 | author=Erik Sherman | magazine=[[Fortune (magazine)|Fortune]] | quote=By April 2018, economists estimated Apple had onshored [to Ireland] $300 billion of intellectual property from Jersey in Q1 2015, appartently the largest recorded BEPS action in history. This was equivalent to over 20% of Irish GDP"}}</ref><ref name="cofr"/><ref name="brads">{{Cite web|title=Apple's Exports Aren't Missing: They Are in Ireland|url=https://www.cfr.org/blog/apples-exports-arent-missing-they-are-ireland|publisher=[[Council on Foreign Relations]]|author=Brad Setser|date=30 October 2017|access-date=30 April 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180429025322/https://www.cfr.org/blog/apples-exports-arent-missing-they-are-ireland|archive-date=29 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author-link=Brad Setser}}</ref><ref name="patrick.smyth"/> In June 2018, the [[European United Left–Nordic Green Left|GUE-NGL]] EU Parliament group published an analysis of Apple's new Irish CAIA BEPS tool, they labeled "[[Ireland as a tax haven#Green Jersey|the Green Jersey]]".<ref name="emmaclancy">{{cite web|url=https://www.taxjustice.net/2018/06/25/new-report-is-apple-paying-less-than-1-tax-in-the-eu/|title=New Report on Apple's New Irish Tax Structure|publisher=[[Tax Justice Network]]|author=Naomi Fowler|date=25 June 2018|access-date=4 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180702064405/https://www.taxjustice.net/2018/06/25/new-report-is-apple-paying-less-than-1-tax-in-the-eu/|archive-date=2 July 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="emma">{{cite web|url=http://src.bna.com/zNy|title=Apple's Irish Tax Deals|publisher=[[European United Left–Nordic Green Left]] EU Parliament|author1=Martin Brehm Christensen|author2=Emma Clancy|date=21 June 2018|access-date=4 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180714041128/http://src.bna.com/zNy|archive-date=14 July 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="patrick.smyth">{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/explainer-apple-s-13bn-tax-appeal-has-huge-implications-1.4017044|title=Explainer: Apple's €13bn tax appeal has huge implications|author=Patrick Syth, European Editor|newspaper=[[Irish Times]]|date=13 September 2019|access-date=15 October 2019|quote=Apple has changed its own corporate structure, restructured a new Irish Beps tool called Capital Allowances for Intangible Assets (CAIA), also nicknamed the “Green Jersey”. The bookkeeping change was so significant that it contributed to the extraordinary one-off revision in Irish GDP for 2015 by 26 per cent (later revised to 34.4 per cent).}}</ref>

Seamus Coffey posted several articles in 2018 on the rise in Irish "intangible allowances", which hit €35.7 billion in 2016, or €4.5 billion of Irish corporate tax avoided at the 12.5% rate.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/capital-allowances-and-companies-with.html|title=Capital Allowances and companies with Net Trading Income that is negative or nil|date=17 July 2018|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|publisher=Economic Incentives, [[University College Cork]]|quote=And we see that after the application of losses, and most importantly, capital allowances, the resulting net trading income of these companies with almost €50 billion of Gross Trading Profits in 2016 was zero|access-date=25 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180825212601/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/capital-allowances-and-companies-with.html|archive-date=25 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> This is consistent with 2018 research showing that the "[[Ireland as a tax haven#Green Jersey|Green Jersey]]" is the largest BEPS tool in the world. However, in the absence of confirming data, Coffey is reluctant to draw a parallel between the dramatic 2015 rise in Irish corporation tax receipts, which has carried into 2016, and any potential change of tax strategy by Apple from the additional EU scrutiny into Apple's Q1 2015 restructure.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-2016-aggregate-corporation-tax.html|title=The 2016 Aggregate Corporation Tax Calculation|date=17 July 2018|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|publisher=Economic Incentives, [[University College Cork]]|quote=And, again it highlights, that although the surge in CT receipts may have happened in the same year as the jump in GDP, they are not necessarily directly related. As with lots of things lately, capital allowances play a central role in this and it is to them that we will turn next|access-date=25 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180825212559/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-2016-aggregate-corporation-tax.html|archive-date=25 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

In May 2019, ''[[The Times]]'' reported that IMF experts, including Erik De Vrijer, Director of the IMF's European department, expressed concern about the lack of official understanding about the driver in the dramatic rise in Irish corporation tax receipts since 2014, and the implications for long-term State spending.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/risky-to-count-too-much-on-corporation-tax-imf-warns-ttpvlbkfl|title=Risky to count too much on corporation tax, IMF warns|newspaper=[[The Times]]|author=Paul O'Donoghue|date=1 May 2019|access-date=1 May 2019|quote=[Irish] Corporation tax receipts have surged in recent years, doubling from €5.2 billion in 2014 to €10.4 billion last year [2018]. Experts are unsure about what has caused this spike.|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190501063855/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/risky-to-count-too-much-on-corporation-tax-imf-warns-ttpvlbkfl|archive-date=1 May 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>{{efn|As discussed in [[Ireland as a tax haven#Captured state|Ireland as a tax haven]], Section 815A of the ''1997 Tax Acts'' prevents disclosure of Irish taxation data, even to other officers of the Irish State, outside of the Irish [[Revenue Commissioners]].<ref name="apple.largest.factcheck">{{cite news|url=http://www.thejournal.ie/apple-biggest-taxpayer-ireland-facts-tim-cook-michael-noonan-2960327-Sep2016/|title=FactCheck: Is Apple really the "largest taxpayer in Ireland"?|quote=Revenue said: "Interactions between Revenue and individual taxpayers are subject to the taxpayer confidentiality provisions of Section 851A".|newspaper=[[TheJournal.ie]]|date=4 September 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|author=Dan MacGuill|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190427220418/https://www.thejournal.ie/apple-biggest-taxpayer-ireland-facts-tim-cook-michael-noonan-2960327-Sep2016/|archive-date=27 April 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>}}

In July 2018, it was reported that Microsoft was preparing to execute a "Green Jersey" BEPS transaction.<ref name="em">{{cite web|url=https://www.businesspost.ie/news/irish-microsoft-firm-worth-100bn-ahead-merger-419721|title=Irish Microsoft firm worth $100bn ahead of merger|publisher=[[The Sunday Business Post]]|author=Ian Guider|date=24 June 2018|access-date=4 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180716111632/https://www.businesspost.ie/news/irish-microsoft-firm-worth-100bn-ahead-merger-419721|archive-date=16 July 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> which, due to [[Ireland as a tax haven#Technical issues with TCJA|technical issues with the TCJA]], makes the CAIA BEPS tool attractive to U.S. multinationals. In July 2018, Coffey posted that Ireland could see a "boom" in the ''onshoring'' of U.S. IP between now and 2020.<ref name="seamus coffey green jersey">{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/when-can-we-expect-next-wave-of-ip.html|title=When can we expect the next wave of IP onshoring?|quote=IP onshoring is something we should be expecting to see much more of as we move towards the end of the decade. Buckle up!|publisher=Economics Incentives, [[University College Cork]]|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|date=18 July 2018|access-date=24 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180804140642/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/when-can-we-expect-next-wave-of-ip.html|archive-date=4 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> In May 2019, it was reported Microsoft moved $52.8bn of IP assets to Ireland.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/microsoft-moves-52-8bn-of-assets-and-its-asian-trading-operation-to-ireland-1.3903630 | title=Microsoft moves $52.8bn of assets and its Asian trading operation to Ireland | author=Mark Paul | date=25 May 2019 | access-date=29 January 2020 | newspaper=Irish Times}}</ref> In January 2020, the ''Irish Times'' speculated that [[Google Inc.]], was also considering using the CAIA BEPS tool, and noting that the CAIA had helped "trigger the Leprechaun Economics affair".<ref name=IT9>{{cite news | url=https://www.independent.ie/business/why-google-might-still-benefit-from-irish-tax-breaks-38830700.html | title=Why Google might still benefit from Irish tax breaks| author=David Chance | date=3 January 2020 | access-date=30 January 2020 |newspaper=[[Irish Times]] | quote=Apple restructured its tax operations in 2015 using the State's capital allowance for intangible assets (CAIA), helping trigger the so-called Leprechaun Economics effect that year when the Irish economy suddenly surged by 26pc}}</ref>