Main belts asteroids can have perihelia (closest approach to the Sun) as low as 1.7 AU.[4] The 22 March 2022 impact scenario was 87,000 times lower than the background threat generated by unknown asteroids.[c] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 15 April 2021 when JPL transitioned to planetary ephemerisDE441.
It was discovered on 24 June 2014, when the asteroid was estimated to be 1.1 ± 0.84 AU (165 ± 126 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 161 degrees.
The 22 March 2018 and 3 April 2019 virtual impactors did not occur.[3] The uncertainty region of ±10 billionkm wraps around the entire orbit so the asteroid could be anywhere on any of the numerous orbit fits. It could be near aphelion (in the asteroid belt) ~3 AU from the Sun.[d] The asteroid was not expected to be near Earth anytime during 2019.[5]
With an almost meaningless 1-day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table showed an estimated 1 in 3 billion chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 22 March 2022,[3] which was 87,000 times lower than the background threat.[c] The nominal JPL Horizons 22 March 2022 Earth distance is 2.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ±3 billion km.[6]NEODyS also lists the nominal 22 March 2022 Earth distance as 2.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi).[7] And again it is not expected to be near Earth anytime during 2022.[7]
^With such short arcs uncertainties can not really be described with formal error bars. In this case non-NEO orbits are definitely possible, perhaps even more likely than NEO ones.
^ abGo to JPL Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas". RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 2019-Dec-18 generates RNG_3sigma = 5.39E9 for 2022-Mar-22.)