→In Northern Ireland: poll added
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m fixed dashes using User:Ohconfucius/dashes.js
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!Notes |
!Notes |
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|- |
|- |
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|9–12 February 2024 |
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|LucidTalk<ref name=":10">{{Cite news |date=2024-02-18 |title=More people in NI would vote to stay part of UK if border poll was called |url=https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/more-people-in-ni-would-vote-to-stay-part-of-uk-if-border-poll-was-called/a1750577562.html |access-date=2024-02-18 |language=en-GB |issn=0307-1235}}</ref> |
|LucidTalk<ref name=":10">{{Cite news |date=2024-02-18 |title=More people in NI would vote to stay part of UK if border poll was called |url=https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/more-people-in-ni-would-vote-to-stay-part-of-uk-if-border-poll-was-called/a1750577562.html |access-date=2024-02-18 |language=en-GB |issn=0307-1235}}</ref> |
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|3,207 |
|3,207 |
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Line 54: | Line 54: | ||
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|- |
|- |
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|26 October |
|26 October – 3 November 2023 |
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|The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research<ref>{{Cite web |title=Restoring the Assembly? |url=https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/humanitiesampsocialsciences/documents/Restoring,The,Assembly,Survey,November,2023.pdf}}</ref> |
|The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research<ref>{{Cite web |title=Restoring the Assembly? |url=https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/humanitiesampsocialsciences/documents/Restoring,The,Assembly,Survey,November,2023.pdf}}</ref> |
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|1,074||31%||{{no|49%}}||9%|| N/A||{{no|18%}} |
|1,074||31%||{{no|49%}}||9%|| N/A||{{no|18%}} |
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Line 60: | Line 60: | ||
|{{Small|"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"}} |
|{{Small|"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"}} |
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|- |
|- |
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|17–30 June 2023 |
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|The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research<ref name=":3">{{Cite web |title=Voting, Identity, Trust and Media |url=https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/humanitiesampsocialsciences/documents/Voting,,Identity,,Trust,and,Media,full,survey,results.pdf}}</ref> |
|The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research<ref name=":3">{{Cite web |title=Voting, Identity, Trust and Media |url=https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/humanitiesampsocialsciences/documents/Voting,,Identity,,Trust,and,Media,full,survey,results.pdf}}</ref> |
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|1,017 |
|1,017 |
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Line 71: | Line 71: | ||
|{{Small|"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"}} |
|{{Small|"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"}} |
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|- |
|- |
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|14 January |
|14 January – 7 September 2023 |
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|Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey<ref>{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: 2023 |url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2023/ |access-date=2024-05-15 |website=www.ark.ac.uk}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: 2023 |url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2023/Political_Attitudes/REFUNIFY.html |access-date=2024-05-15 |website=www.ark.ac.uk}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2023 Technical Notes |url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2023/tech23.pdf}}</ref> |
|Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey<ref>{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: 2023 |url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2023/ |access-date=2024-05-15 |website=www.ark.ac.uk}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: 2023 |url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2023/Political_Attitudes/REFUNIFY.html |access-date=2024-05-15 |website=www.ark.ac.uk}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2023 Technical Notes |url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2023/tech23.pdf}}</ref> |
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|1,200 |
|1,200 |
||
Line 104: | Line 104: | ||
|{{Small|"If there was a referendum (i.e. a 'Border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.."}} |
|{{Small|"If there was a referendum (i.e. a 'Border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.."}} |
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|- |
|- |
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| |
|11–26 March 2022 |
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|University of Liverpool/The Irish News<ref name=":6">{{cite web |title=The Institute of Irish Studies, University of Liverpool |
|University of Liverpool/The Irish News<ref name=":6">{{cite web |title=The Institute of Irish Studies, University of Liverpool – The Irish News Opinion Poll April 2022 |url=https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/humanitiesampsocialsciences/documents/Institute,of,Irish,Studies,Irish,News,Poll,March,2022.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230415020227/https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/media/livacuk/humanitiesampsocialsciences/documents/Institute,of,Irish,Studies,Irish,News,Poll,March,2022.pdf |archive-date=15 April 2023 |access-date=28 May 2023}}</ref> |
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|1,000 |
|1,000 |
||
||30.0%||{{no|45.3%}}||*18.7% |
||30.0%||{{no|45.3%}}||*18.7% |
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Line 112: | Line 112: | ||
|{{Small|"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"}}{{Small|*Neither Agree/Disagree}} |
|{{Small|"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"}}{{Small|*Neither Agree/Disagree}} |
||
|- |
|- |
||
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|15–18 November 2021 |
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|Lord Ashcroft<ref>{{Cite web |title=Ulster and the Union: the view from the North |url=https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Ulster-and-the-Union-1.pdf}}</ref> |
|Lord Ashcroft<ref>{{Cite web |title=Ulster and the Union: the view from the North |url=https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Ulster-and-the-Union-1.pdf}}</ref> |
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|3,301 |
|3,301 |
||
Line 119: | Line 119: | ||
|{{Small|"If there was a referendum (i.e a 'border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland tomorrow, how would you vote?"}} |
|{{Small|"If there was a referendum (i.e a 'border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland tomorrow, how would you vote?"}} |
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|- |
|- |
||
| |
|October–December 2021 |
||
| Life & Times<ref>{{Cite web |title=Political Attitudes in Northern Ireland after Brexit and under the Protocol |url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/ARK/sites/default/files/2022-05/update147_0.pdf}}</ref> |
| Life & Times<ref>{{Cite web |title=Political Attitudes in Northern Ireland after Brexit and under the Protocol |url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/ARK/sites/default/files/2022-05/update147_0.pdf}}</ref> |
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|1,397||34%||{{no|48%}}||11%||4%||{{no|14%}} |
|1,397||34%||{{no|48%}}||11%||4%||{{no|14%}} |
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Line 131: | Line 131: | ||
|{{Small|"If there was a border poll tomorrow, would you vote for Northern Ireland to stay as part of the United Kingdom or for a United Ireland?"}} |
|{{Small|"If there was a border poll tomorrow, would you vote for Northern Ireland to stay as part of the United Kingdom or for a United Ireland?"}} |
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|- |
|- |
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|20–23 August 2021 |
||
|LucidTalk<ref>{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland (NI) Tracker Poll Results: August 2021 POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS – MAIN REPORT |url=https://024943a0-ce9e-4fe5-85a2-d9f4d3bc845d.usrfiles.com/ugd/024943_2ff8b79e9ace4ecf8b0af35157d49a46.pdf}}</ref> |
|LucidTalk<ref>{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland (NI) Tracker Poll Results: August 2021 POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS – MAIN REPORT |url=https://024943a0-ce9e-4fe5-85a2-d9f4d3bc845d.usrfiles.com/ugd/024943_2ff8b79e9ace4ecf8b0af35157d49a46.pdf}}</ref> |
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| 2,403||42%||{{no|49%}}||9% |
| 2,403||42%||{{no|49%}}||9% |
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Line 139: | Line 139: | ||
|- |
|- |
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|June 2021 |
|June 2021 |
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|Life & Times<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2020/Political_Attitudes/REFUNIFY.html|title = NI Life and Times Survey |
|Life & Times<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2020/Political_Attitudes/REFUNIFY.html|title = NI Life and Times Survey – 2020 : REFUNIFY}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/29/majority-of-northern-irish-voters-want-vote-on-staying-in-uk|title = Majority of Northern Irish voters want vote on staying in UK|website = [[TheGuardian.com]]|date = 29 August 2021}}</ref> |
||
| ||30%||{{no|53%}}||9% |
| ||30%||{{no|53%}}||9% |
||
|5%||{{no|23%}} |
|5%||{{no|23%}} |
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Line 157: | Line 157: | ||
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|- |
|- |
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||February 2021|| Savanta ComRes/ITV News<ref>{{Cite web |title=ITN |
||February 2021|| Savanta ComRes/ITV News<ref>{{Cite web |title=ITN – State of the Union –NI– Feb 2021 |url=https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Final_p011076_NI.pdf |access-date=2023-10-24 |archive-date=2022-09-02 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220902112819/https://2sjjwunnql41ia7ki31qqub1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Final_p011076_NI.pdf |url-status=dead }}</ref> |
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| ||36%||{{no|49%}}|| colspan="2" |15%||{{no|13%}} |
| ||36%||{{no|49%}}|| colspan="2" |15%||{{no|13%}} |
||
| |
| |
||
| |
| |
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|- |
|- |
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||January 2021|| Lucid Talk/The Sunday Times<ref>{{Cite web |last=White |first=Bill |date=2021-01-26 |title=LT NI SUNDAY TIMES January 2021 |
||January 2021|| Lucid Talk/The Sunday Times<ref>{{Cite web |last=White |first=Bill |date=2021-01-26 |title=LT NI SUNDAY TIMES January 2021 – NI-Wide Poll |url=https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/lt-ni-sunday-times-january-2021-state-of-the-uk-union-poll |access-date=2023-10-25 |website=LucidTalk |language=en}}</ref> |
||
| ||42.3%||{{no|46.8%}}|| colspan="2" |10.7%||{{no|4.5%}} |
| ||42.3%||{{no|46.8%}}|| colspan="2" |10.7%||{{no|4.5%}} |
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Line 200: | Line 200: | ||
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|- |
|- |
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||May 2018||LucidTalk/YouGov/BBC<ref name="LucidTalk 2018-06-08">{{cite web |url=https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/06/29/A-BBC-LT-NI-Tracker-Poll-on-Identity-and-Nationality |title=A BBC LT NI Tracker Poll on Identity and Nationality |publisher=LucidTalk |date=8 June 2018 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190314232614/https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/06/29/A-BBC-LT-NI-Tracker-Poll-on-Identity-and-Nationality |archive-date=14 March 2019 |access-date=14 March 2019 }}</ref><ref name="LucidTalk 2018-06-06 PDF">{{cite web |url=https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_d536561565de48c7a893fb22fec0ce50.pdf |title=LucidTalk Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland |
||May 2018||LucidTalk/YouGov/BBC<ref name="LucidTalk 2018-06-08">{{cite web |url=https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/06/29/A-BBC-LT-NI-Tracker-Poll-on-Identity-and-Nationality |title=A BBC LT NI Tracker Poll on Identity and Nationality |publisher=LucidTalk |date=8 June 2018 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190314232614/https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2018/06/29/A-BBC-LT-NI-Tracker-Poll-on-Identity-and-Nationality |archive-date=14 March 2019 |access-date=14 March 2019 }}</ref><ref name="LucidTalk 2018-06-06 PDF">{{cite web |url=https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_d536561565de48c7a893fb22fec0ce50.pdf |title=LucidTalk Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland –NI) Results Report |publisher=LucidTalk |date=6 June 2018 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190314232406/https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_d536561565de48c7a893fb22fec0ce50.pdf |archive-date=14 March 2019 |access-date=14 March 2019 |page=133 }}</ref><ref name="The Independent 2018-06-08">{{cite news |last=Stone |first=Jon |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html |title=Brexit causes surge in support for united Ireland, poll finds |work=[[The Independent]] |date=8 June 2018 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180612170642/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html |archive-date=12 June 2018 |access-date=14 March 2019 |quote=Over a quarter of people in the six counties say they have changed their mind since the Brexit vote and now support a united Ireland – bringing polling for a referendum to 45 per cent staying in the UK and 42 per cent leaving it, with 13 per cent undecided. }}</ref> |
||
| ||42%||{{no|45%}}||12.7% |
| ||42%||{{no|45%}}||12.7% |
||
|0.2%||{{no|3%}} |
|0.2%||{{no|3%}} |
||
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|- |
|- |
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||October 2017||LucidTalk<ref name="LucidTalk 2017-11-02">{{cite web |url=https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2017/11/02/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll-October-2017---Results-Report |title=LT NI Tracker Poll (October 2017) |
||October 2017||LucidTalk<ref name="LucidTalk 2017-11-02">{{cite web |url=https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2017/11/02/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll-October-2017---Results-Report |title=LT NI Tracker Poll (October 2017) – Results Report |publisher=LucidTalk |date=2 November 2017 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190314230301/https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2017/11/02/LT-NI-Tracker-Poll-October-2017---Results-Report |archive-date=14 March 2019 |access-date=14 March 2019 }}</ref><ref name="LucidTalk 2017-11-01 PDF">{{cite web |url=https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_a284eb0a48094ee2b8f9de9661b7b1a3.pdf |title=LucidTalk Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland) Results Report |publisher=LucidTalk |date=1 November 2017 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190314230332/https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_a284eb0a48094ee2b8f9de9661b7b1a3.pdf |archive-date=14 March 2019 |access-date=14 March 2019 }}</ref> |
||
| ||34%||{{no|55%}}||9.8% |
| ||34%||{{no|55%}}||9.8% |
||
|1.1%||{{no|21%}} |
|1.1%||{{no|21%}} |
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Line 250: | Line 250: | ||
|- |
|- |
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|November 2003 |
|November 2003 |
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|Millward Brown Ulster<ref name=":2">{{Cite web |date=2007-02-08 |title=Millward Brown Ulster |
|Millward Brown Ulster<ref name=":2">{{Cite web |date=2007-02-08 |title=Millward Brown Ulster – Reports – Opinion Poll, May 2003 : Slides |url=http://www.ums-research.com/reports/2003/opinion_nov03/slides.html |access-date=2023-10-24 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070208062831/http://www.ums-research.com/reports/2003/opinion_nov03/slides.html |archive-date=2007-02-08 }}</ref> |
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|1058 |
|1058 |
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|26% |
|26% |
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Line 260: | Line 260: | ||
|- |
|- |
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|October-mid January 2002 |
|October-mid January 2002 |
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|NI Life and Times Survey<ref>{{Cite web |title=NI Life and Times Survey |
|NI Life and Times Survey<ref>{{Cite web |title=NI Life and Times Survey – 2002: REFUNIFY |url=https://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2002/Political_Attitudes/REFUNIFY.html |access-date=2023-10-24 |website=www.ark.ac.uk}}</ref> |
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|1800 |
|1800 |
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|27% |
|27% |
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Line 304: | Line 304: | ||
!Non standard question |
!Non standard question |
||
|- |
|- |
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| |
|9–12 February 2024 |
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|LucidTalk<ref name=":10" /><ref name=":11">{{Cite web |date=2024-02-19 |title=Majority in North under 45 would vote for united Ireland |url=https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/majority-in-north-under-45-would-vote-for-united-ireland/a1263231964.html |access-date=2024-02-19 |website=Independent.ie |language=en}}</ref> |
|LucidTalk<ref name=":10" /><ref name=":11">{{Cite web |date=2024-02-19 |title=Majority in North under 45 would vote for united Ireland |url=https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/majority-in-north-under-45-would-vote-for-united-ireland/a1263231964.html |access-date=2024-02-19 |website=Independent.ie |language=en}}</ref> |
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| 3,207 |
| 3,207 |
||
|{{yes|52%}} |
|{{yes|52%}} |
||
|44% |
|44% |
||
| |
| – |
||
| |
| – |
||
|{{yes|8%}} |
|{{yes|8%}} |
||
|At some point in the future |
|At some point in the future |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| |
|17–30 June 2023 |
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|The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research<ref name=":3" /> |
|The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research<ref name=":3" /> |
||
| |
| – |
||
|{{yes|40%}} |
|{{yes|40%}} |
||
|36% |
|36% |
||
| |
| – |
||
| |
| – |
||
|{{yes|4%}} |
|{{yes|4%}} |
||
|In |
|In 15–20 years |
||
|- |
|- |
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|August 2022 |
|August 2022 |
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Line 330: | Line 330: | ||
|44% |
|44% |
||
|4% |
|4% |
||
| |
| – |
||
|{{yes|8%}} |
|{{yes|8%}} |
||
|If a referendum was held in 15–20 years time. |
|If a referendum was held in 15–20 years time. |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| |
|11–26 March 2022 |
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|University of Liverpool/The Irish News<ref name=":6" /> |
|University of Liverpool/The Irish News<ref name=":6" /> |
||
|1,000 |
|1,000 |
||
Line 342: | Line 342: | ||
|7.6% |
|7.6% |
||
|{{no|8.1%}} |
|{{no|8.1%}} |
||
|In |
|In 15–20 years |
||
<nowiki>*</nowiki>"Neither Agree/Disagree" |
<nowiki>*</nowiki>"Neither Agree/Disagree" |
||
|- |
|- |
||
Line 351: | Line 351: | ||
|{{no|43%}} |
|{{no|43%}} |
||
|27% |
|27% |
||
| |
| – |
||
|{{no|13%}} |
|{{no|13%}} |
||
|"...in your lifetime?" |
|"...in your lifetime?" |
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Line 383: | Line 383: | ||
!18–24 |
!18–24 |
||
!25–34 |
!25–34 |
||
!35–44 |
|||
!35-44 |
|||
!45–54 |
!45–54 |
||
!55–64 |
|||
!55-64 |
|||
!65+ |
!65+ |
||
|- |
|- |
||
Line 429: | Line 429: | ||
!18–24 |
!18–24 |
||
!25–34 |
!25–34 |
||
!35–44 |
|||
!35-44 |
|||
!45–54 |
!45–54 |
||
!55–64 |
|||
!55-64 |
|||
!65+ |
!65+ |
||
!No religion |
!No religion |
||
Line 646: | Line 646: | ||
!Non standard question |
!Non standard question |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| |
|October–November 2018 |
||
|LucidTalk<ref name=":4">{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland (NI) Tracker Poll Results Report: Winter (December) 2018 |url=https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_b89b42d32364461298ba5fe7867d82e1.pdf}}</ref> |
|LucidTalk<ref name=":4">{{Cite web |title=Northern Ireland (NI) Tracker Poll Results Report: Winter (December) 2018 |url=https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_b89b42d32364461298ba5fe7867d82e1.pdf}}</ref> |
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|1,334 |
|1,334 |
||
Line 652: | Line 652: | ||
|48% |
|48% |
||
|4% |
|4% |
||
| |
| – |
||
|Even |
|Even |
||
|If Northern Ireland left the EU on terms negotiated between the UK government and the EU |
|If Northern Ireland left the EU on terms negotiated between the UK government and the EU |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| |
|October–November 2018 |
||
|LucidTalk<ref name=":4" /> |
|LucidTalk<ref name=":4" /> |
||
|1,334 |
|1,334 |
||
Line 662: | Line 662: | ||
|42% |
|42% |
||
|3% |
|3% |
||
| |
| – |
||
|{{yes|13%}} |
|{{yes|13%}} |
||
|No deal scenario |
|No deal scenario |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| |
|October–November 2018 |
||
|LucidTalk<ref name=":4" /> |
|LucidTalk<ref name=":4" /> |
||
|1,334 |
|1,334 |
||
Line 672: | Line 672: | ||
|{{no|60%}} |
|{{no|60%}} |
||
|11% |
|11% |
||
| |
| – |
||
|{{no|31%}} |
|{{no|31%}} |
||
|If the UK remained an EU member state |
|If the UK remained an EU member state |
||
Line 684: | Line 684: | ||
|- |
|- |
||
|December 2017 |
|December 2017 |
||
|LucidTalk<ref name="LucidTalk 2017-12-08">{{cite news |date=8 December 2017 |title=GUE/NGL Sponsored |
|LucidTalk<ref name="LucidTalk 2017-12-08">{{cite news |date=8 December 2017 |title=GUE/NGL Sponsored – NI OPINION PANEL 'TRACKER' POLL |newspaper=LucidTalk |url=https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2017/12/08/GUENGL-Sponsored---NI-OPINION-PANEL-TRACKER-POLL |url-status=live |access-date=14 March 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190314180238/https://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/single-post/2017/12/08/GUENGL-Sponsored---NI-OPINION-PANEL-TRACKER-POLL |archive-date=14 March 2019}}</ref><ref name="LucidTalk 2017-12-08 PDF">{{cite web |date=8 December 2017 |title=LucidTalk Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland –NI) Results Report |url=https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_7629d17b71d540c195e5e009390dae33.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181011124911/https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/024943_7629d17b71d540c195e5e009390dae33.pdf |archive-date=11 October 2018 |access-date=14 March 2019 |publisher=LucidTalk |page=35}}</ref> |
||
| ||{{yes|48%}} |
| ||{{yes|48%}} |
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|45% |
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|RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research<ref>{{Cite web |last=Archer |first=Bimpe |date=2021-03-23 |title=Small majority of people in the Republic are in favour of a united Ireland |
|RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research<ref>{{Cite web |last=Archer |first=Bimpe |date=2021-03-23 |title=Small majority of people in the Republic are in favour of a united Ireland – poll |url=http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/03/23/news/small-majority-of-people-in-the-republic-are-in-favour-of-a-united-ireland---poll-2264153/ |access-date=2023-10-31 |website=The Irish News |language=en}}</ref> |
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|"Is it time to have a united Ireland" |
|"Is it time to have a united Ireland" |
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54% aged |
54% aged 25–34 said yes |
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A 2019 poll by [[Ipsos MORI|Ipsos Mori]] and [[King's College London]] asked people in Great Britain ([[England]], [[Scotland]], and [[Wales]]): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |title=One in three Britons would mind if Northern Ireland voted to leave the UK, poll finds |url=https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/one-three-britons-would-mind-if-northern-ireland-voted-leave-uk-poll-finds |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190403235522/https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/one-three-britons-would-mind-if-northern-ireland-voted-leave-uk-poll-finds |archive-date=3 April 2019 |access-date=2019-04-03 |website=Ipsos MORI |language=en-uk}}</ref> It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters.<ref name=":0" /> |
A 2019 poll by [[Ipsos MORI|Ipsos Mori]] and [[King's College London]] asked people in Great Britain ([[England]], [[Scotland]], and [[Wales]]): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |title=One in three Britons would mind if Northern Ireland voted to leave the UK, poll finds |url=https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/one-three-britons-would-mind-if-northern-ireland-voted-leave-uk-poll-finds |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190403235522/https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/one-three-britons-would-mind-if-northern-ireland-voted-leave-uk-poll-finds |archive-date=3 April 2019 |access-date=2019-04-03 |website=Ipsos MORI |language=en-uk}}</ref> It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters.<ref name=":0" /> |
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A 2023 state of the union poll asking if Ireland should unite showed that respondents from Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England all had net positive views on the unification. On a scale between |
A 2023 state of the union poll asking if Ireland should unite showed that respondents from Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England all had net positive views on the unification. On a scale between −10 to definitely remain in the UK to +10 to definitely unite Ireland; the people of Scotland had a net score of +1.9, England at +0.9, Wales at +0.6, and those in Northern Ireland at +0.6 also.<ref>{{Cite news |title=England, Wales and Scotland all now in favour of Irish unification, research shows |url=https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2024/03/21/england-wales-and-scotland-all-now-in-favour-of-irish-unification-research-shows/ |access-date=2024-04-08 |newspaper=The Irish Times |language=en}}</ref> |
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== See also == |
== See also == |
This page lists opinion polling for a United Ireland also known as a New Ireland.
The Good Friday Agreement states that "the Secretary of State" should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."[1]
Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Excluding don't know | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk[2] | 3,207 | 39% | 49% | 11% | 1% | 10% | 44% to 56% | "If there was a referendum on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week, how would you vote?" |
November 2023 | ARINS/ The Irish Times[3][4] | 1,019 | 30% | 51% | 15% | 5% | 21% | 37% to 63% | |
26 October – 3 November 2023 | The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[5] | 1,074 | 31% | 49% | 9% | N/A | 18% | 38% to 62% | "I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow" |
17–30 June 2023 | The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[6] | 1,017 | 36.1% | 47.0% | 10% | 6.2% | 10.9% | 43% to 57% | "I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow" |
14 January – 7 September 2023 | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey[7][8][9] | 1,200 | 35% | 47% | 10% | 5% | 12% | 43% to 57% | "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?" |
5 September – 20 November 2022 | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey[10][11] | 1,405 | 35% | 47% | 10% | 4% | 12% | 43% to 57% | "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?" |
17 August 2022 – 15 October 2022 | ARINS/The Irish Times[12][13] | 1,009 | 27% | 50% | 23% | 23% | 35% to 65% | "If there was a referendum asking people whether they want Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or unify with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in that referendum?" | |
August 2022 | LucidTalk[14] | 3,384 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | 46% to 54% | "If there was a referendum (i.e. a 'Border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.." | |
11–26 March 2022 | University of Liverpool/The Irish News[15] | 1,000 | 30.0% | 45.3% | *18.7% | 6% | 15.3% | 40% to 60% | "I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"*Neither Agree/Disagree |
15–18 November 2021 | Lord Ashcroft[16] | 3,301 | 41% | 49% | 8% | 8% | 46% to 54% | "If there was a referendum (i.e a 'border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland tomorrow, how would you vote?" | |
October–December 2021 | Life & Times[17] | 1,397 | 34% | 48% | 11% | 4% | 14% | 41% to 59% | "If there was a referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?" |
October 2021 | University of Liverpool[18] | 1,002 | 29.8% | 58.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 28.8% | 33% to 67% | "If there was a border poll tomorrow, would you vote for Northern Ireland to stay as part of the United Kingdom or for a United Ireland?" |
20–23 August 2021 | LucidTalk[19] | 2,403 | 42% | 49% | 9% | 0% | 7% | 46% to 54% | "If there was a referendum (i.e. a ‘Border poll’) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.." |
June 2021 | Life & Times[20][21] | 30% | 53% | 9% | 5% | 23% | |||
May 2021 | Belfast Telegraph/Kantar[22] | 35% | 44% | 21% | 9% | ||||
April 2021 | LucidTalk[23] | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | ||||
February 2021 | Savanta ComRes/ITV News[24] | 36% | 49% | 15% | 13% | ||||
January 2021 | Lucid Talk/The Sunday Times[25] | 42.3% | 46.8% | 10.7% | 4.5% | ||||
Brexit transition period ends and UK leaves the European Union, 31 December 2020 | |||||||||
February 2020 | LucidTalk[26] | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | ||||
February 2020 | Liverpool University[27] | 29% | 52% | 19% | 23% | ||||
September 2019 | Lord Ashcroft[28] | 1,542 | 46% | 45% | 9% | 1% | "If there was a "border poll" tomorrow, how would you vote?" | ||
March 2019 | Irish Times/Ipsos Mori[29] | 32% | 45% | 23% | 13% | ||||
June 2018 | Lord Ashcroft[30] | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | ||||
June 2018 | NILT[31][32] | 22% | 55% | 10% | 12% | 33% | |||
May 2018 | LucidTalk/YouGov/BBC[33][34][35] | 42% | 45% | 12.7% | 0.2% | 3% | |||
May 2018 | ICM | 21% | 50% | 18.9% | 9.7% | 29% | |||
October 2017 | LucidTalk[36][37] | 34% | 55% | 9.8% | 1.1% | 21% | |||
July 2017 | ESRC[38] | 27% | 52% | 21% | 25% | ||||
August 2016 | Ipsos Mori[39] | 22% | 63% | 13% | 2% | 41% | Voters aged 18+ | ||
Brexit referendum, 23 June 2016 | |||||||||
Scottish independence referendum, 18 September 2014 | |||||||||
January 2013 | Spotlight[40] | 17% | 65% | 5% | 12% | 48% | Voters aged 18+ | ||
November 2003 | Millward Brown Ulster[41] | 1058 | 26% | 61% | 13% | 35% | "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+) | ||
October-mid January 2002 | NI Life and Times Survey[42] | 1800 | 27% | 54% | 10% | 6% | 27% | "Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?" | |
May 2001 | Millward Brown Ulster[41] | 27% | 58% | 15% | 31% | "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+) | |||
June 1998 | Millward Brown Ulster[41] | 25% | 63% | 12% | 38% | "Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+) | |||
Belfast Good Friday Agreement is signed, 10 April 1998 |
Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Non standard question |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9–12 February 2024 | LucidTalk[2][43] | 3,207 | 52% | 44% | – | – | 8% | At some point in the future |
17–30 June 2023 | The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research[6] | – | 40% | 36% | – | – | 4% | In 15–20 years |
August 2022 | LucidTalk[14] | 3,384 | 52% | 44% | 4% | – | 8% | If a referendum was held in 15–20 years time. |
11–26 March 2022 | University of Liverpool/The Irish News[15] | 1,000 | 33.4% | 41.5% | *17.9%* | 7.6% | 8.1% | In 15–20 years
*"Neither Agree/Disagree" |
October 2015 | RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI[44] | 1,407 | 30% | 43% | 27% | – | 13% | "...in your lifetime?" |
Date | Polling organisation/client | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Non standard question |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
October 2020 | LucidTalk[45] | 35% | 34% | 26% | 1% | Reference to healthcare provision |
Answer[2] | Age band | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | 65+ | |
Yes (to a United Ireland) | 48% | 45% | 44% | 42% | 28% | 36% |
No | 43% | 41% | 42% | 54% | 64% | 48% |
Don't know | 9% | 14% | 13% | 4% | 8% | 13% |
Lead | 5% | 4% | 2% | 12% | 36% | 12% |
Answer[11] | Age band | Religion | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | 65+ | No religion | Catholic | Protestant | |
Yes (to a United Ireland) | 43% | 45% | 36% | 34% | 33% | 26% | 36% | 67% | 8% |
No | 24% | 37% | 38% | 51% | 51% | 60% | 42% | 14% | 81% |
Don't know | 22% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 7% |
In 2016 an Ipsos MORI poll asked "If there was a referendum on the border tomorrow would you:" and the answers for different regions of Northern Ireland were as follows,[46]
Belfast
City |
Greater
Belfast |
Down | Armagh | Tyrone/
Fermanagh |
Derry | Antrim | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom | 65% | 77% | 57% | 50% | 51% | 53% | 72% |
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom | 17% | 10% | 27% | 41% | 28% | 28% | 17% |
Don't know | 17% | 10% | 13% | 7% | 19% | 16% | 6% |
Would not vote | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
The same poll recorded answers from people in different age groups as follows,[47]
Age band | 18–24 | 25–34 | 35–44 | 45–54 | 55–64 | 65+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom | 67% | 63% | 51% | 57% | 60% | 77% |
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom | 19% | 19% | 30% | 28% | 22% | 14% |
Don't know | 12% | 15% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 7% |
Answers from people of different religious backgrounds were as follows,[46]
Answer | Community background | ||
---|---|---|---|
Protestant | Catholic | Neither | |
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom | 88% | 37% | 51% |
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom | 5% | 43% | 15% |
Don't know | 5% | 17% | 30% |
An opinion poll of 1,089 people conducted by LucidTalk in 2014 around the time of the Scottish referendum posed several questions. On the question of whether or not there should be a border poll, 47% said "yes", 37% "no" and 16% "don't know".[48] On the question, "If a referendum on Irish Unity was called under the Good Friday Agreement would you vote: Yes for unity as soon as possible, Yes for unity in 20 years, or No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is", the results were as follows.[48][49]
Answer | All
persons |
Religion | Age band | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Protestant | Catholic | 18–24 | 25–44 | 45–64 | 65+ | ||
Yes, for unity as soon as possible | 5.7% | 1.8% | 9.8% | 12.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% |
Yes, for unity in 20 years | 24.0% | 9.6% | 39.5% | 27.8% | 26.6% | 23.0% | 19.7% |
No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is | 44.1% | 57.8% | 20.7% | 36.6% | 38.0% | 45.6% | 53.9% |
No opinion/would not vote | 26.3% | 30.8% | 30.1% | 23.4% | 29.9% | 27.6% | 23.0% |
Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Non standard question |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
October–November 2018 | LucidTalk[50] | 1,334 | 48% | 48% | 4% | – | Even | If Northern Ireland left the EU on terms negotiated between the UK government and the EU |
October–November 2018 | LucidTalk[50] | 1,334 | 55% | 42% | 3% | – | 13% | No deal scenario |
October–November 2018 | LucidTalk[50] | 1,334 | 29% | 60% | 11% | – | 31% | If the UK remained an EU member state |
September 2018 | OFOC/Deltapoll[51] | 52% | 39% | 9% | 13% | "Imagine now that the UK decided to LEAVE the EU..." | ||
December 2017 | LucidTalk[52][53] | 48% | 45% | 6% | 0.7% | 3% | In the context of a hard Brexit |
Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Will not vote |
Lead | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
November 2023 | ARINS/ The Irish Times[3][4] | >1,000 | 64% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 48% | |
August & September 2022 | The Irish Times/Arins Project[54] | 1,000 voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic | 66% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 50% | |
December 2021 | Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI[55] | 1,200[56] | 62% | 16% | 13% | 8% | 46% | |
November 2021 | Business Post/Red C[57] | 1,001 | 60% | 25% | 15% | 35% | ||
March 2021 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[58] | 1,000 | 53% | 19% | 28% | 34% | "Is it time for a united Ireland?" | |
May 2019 | RTÉ/REDC[59] | Randomly selected sample of 3,016 eligible voters outside 156 polling stations | 65% | 19% | 15% | 46% | ||
January 2019 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[60] | 1,000 | 54% | 21% | 25% | 33% | "Are you in favour of a united Ireland" | |
March 2017 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[61] | 1,200 | 49% | 29% | 22% | 20% | ||
December 2016 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[62][63] | 46% | 32% | 22% | 14% | "Is it time to have a united Ireland"
54% aged 25–34 said yes | ||
October 2010 | Red C/Sunday Times[64] | 1,005 | 57% | 22% | 21% | 35% |
"In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should..." (October 2015)[65] | Proportion |
---|---|
Remain part of the UK, with direct rule from Westminster | 9% |
Remain part of the UK, with a devolved assembly and Executive in Northern Ireland (the current situation) | 35% |
Unify with the rest of Ireland | 36% |
Other | 1% |
None of these | 2% |
Don't know | 17% |
Date | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
February 2019 | RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[66] | 1,000 | 63% | 18% | 19% | 45% | "in their lifetime" |
October 2015 | RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI[44] | 1,407 | 66% | 14% | 20% | 42% | "in your lifetime?" |
"Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ..." (October 2015)[67] | You would have to pay less tax | There would be no change in the amount of tax you pay | You would have to pay more tax |
---|---|---|---|
In favour of a united Ireland | 73% | 63% | 31% |
Against a united Ireland | 8% | 14% | 44% |
Don't know | 18% | 24% | 25% |
A 2019 poll by Ipsos Mori and King's College London asked people in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided.[68] It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters.[68]
A 2023 state of the union poll asking if Ireland should unite showed that respondents from Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England all had net positive views on the unification. On a scale between −10 to definitely remain in the UK to +10 to definitely unite Ireland; the people of Scotland had a net score of +1.9, England at +0.9, Wales at +0.6, and those in Northern Ireland at +0.6 also.[69]
Over a quarter of people in the six counties say they have changed their mind since the Brexit vote and now support a united Ireland – bringing polling for a referendum to 45 per cent staying in the UK and 42 per cent leaving it, with 13 per cent undecided.
If Brexit led to a border poll, 52% would vote for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK and 27% for a united Ireland.
It says 52% of those surveyed backed a united Ireland with 39% showing support for Northern Ireland staying in the UK.
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