AAPT Distinguished Service Citation (1970) Thomas Jefferson Award (1972) Robert L. Stearns Award (1974) Robert A. Millikan Award (1981) AAPT Melba Newell Phillips Award (1990) M. King Hubbert Award for Excellence in Energy Education (2005) Lifetime Achievement Pacesetter Award (2006) Global Media Award for Excellence in Population Reporting (2008)
Albert Allen Bartlett (March 21, 1923 – September 7, 2013)[2] was an American professor of physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder. As of July 2001[update] Professor Bartlett had lectured over 1,742 times since September, 1969 on Arithmetic, Population, and Energy.[3][4] Bartlett regarded the word combination "sustainable growth" as an oxymoron, and argued that modest annual percentage population increases could lead to exponential growth. He therefore regarded human overpopulation as "The Greatest Challenge" facing humanity.
[edit]Graph showing human population growthChart showing change in oil prices since the 19th century. The top curve is inflation-adjusted.World population from 1800 to 2100, based on UN 2004 projections[6] (red, orange, green) and US Census Bureau historical estimates[7] (black)
Bartlett viewed sustainable growth as a contradiction. His view was that modest percentage growth will equate to huge escalations over relatively short periods of time.[8]
Over time, Bartlett argued, compound growth can yield enormous increases. For example, an investor earning a constant annual 7% return on their investment would find his or her capital doubling within 10 years. He applied the same exponential power to human population, and argued this would have calamitous results. He argued that a population of 10,000 individuals, if it were to grow at a constant rate of 7% per annum, would reach a population size of 10 million after 100 years.[9]
J. B. Calvert (1999) has proposed that Bartlett's law[11] will result in the exhaustion of petrochemical resources caused by exponential growth of the world population (in line with the Malthusian Growth Model).
Bartlett made statements relating to sustainability:
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
and his Great Challenge:
"Can you think of any problem in any area of human endeavor on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted, or advanced by further increases in population, locally, nationally, or globally?"
In August 2013, a month before Bartlett's death, the Environmental Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder offered training on giving his presentation; the team "came together because they believe so strongly in Dr. Bartlett's message and want to ensure it continues to be delivered well into the future".[13]
Professor Bartlett's website contains background, articles, book "The Essential Exponential", and links to his talk, "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy". Retrieved July 2011