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Predicting the attack on Pearl Harbor
2010-03-08
One day before the attack on Pearl Harbor, on Saturday, December 6,
1941, US Naval Intelligence in Pearl Harbor was aware of facts which
could have suggested an attack was coming, if someone had recognized
their combined implications:
(一)Japan had a practice of starting wars with surprise
attacks on Sunday morning.
(二)A Japanese fleet was headed for a probable attack in Southeast
Asia, perhaps as early as the following morning--which in Southeast
Asia was going to be Monday, December 8.
There was a suspicion that the fleet would attack the Malay Peninsula,
which in fact it did. This put Japan at war with Britain.
(These facts come from the book ``And I Was There'', by Admiral Layton.)
Why attack on Monday? Perhaps just for variety, but there was
one possible reason why this attack had to be made on a Monday:
if it was timed to accompany another attack in the Eastern Pacific
where that same morning would be Sunday.
If there were two synchronized attacks, either of the two could have
been scheduled for Sunday. It would be natural to use the extra
Sunday factor for whichever attack was more important or needed
surprise more. The only attack in the Eastern Pacific that would have
been more important than starting a war with Britain would have been
an attack on the US. Other possible targets were weakly defended; it
would have made more sense to attack them on Saturday so as to save
the Sunday factor for the Malay Peninsula.
The target did not have to be Pearl Harbor, but that was one of the most
likely places. Of the major US military bases in the Eastern Pacific,
Pearl Harbor was closest to Japan and most vulnerable.
None of this was proof, but it could have focused suspicion on the
next morning.