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Published: January 19, 2010
Results and Analysis
Results from each township in the Democrats stunning loss in the Massachusetts special election to fill the Senate seat once held by Edward M. Kennedy. Many expected Martha Coakley, the Democratic candidate, to win easily, but over the past month, Scott Brown, the Republican candidate, galvanized the state’s independent voters, seizing on dissatisfaction with the economy, taxes and governmental spending.
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Where the Democrats Lost Ground
An analysis of the factors which led to the Democrats’ defeat.
Where the Democratic share of the vote dropped the most
Towns where Democratic share of the vote dropped by more than 15 percent
Compared with the vote for President Obama in 2008, Ms. Coakley lost the most ground in the central and southeastern parts of the state. These more sparsely populated areas have traditionally been the most favorable
to Republican candidates. Mr. Brown’s campaign resonated with independents who were anxious about the economy, an important factor in these places, which have the state's highest unemployment
rates. These towns have also seen their unemployment rates rise the fastest in the last year.
Where the Democratic share of the vote dropped the least
Towns where Democratic share of the vote dropped by less than 10 percent
In every town across the state, the Democratic share of the vote was down from the 2008 presidential election. Ms. Coakley received 45 percent fewer votes in Boston than Mr. Obama did in 2008, giving her a much
smaller lead — 59,000 votes — in the city. The towns where President Obama made the strongest showing did not shift as much to the right as the rest of the state. On average, these areas have
lower unemployment rates.
Turnout was down, particularly in Democratic areas
As expected, turnout was depressed for this special election compared with last year’s general election. About 54 percent of registered voters turned out, compared with 73 percent in November 2008. In
President Obama’s strongest areas — towns where he received more than 60 percent of the vote — the number of voters was about 30 percent below 2008 levels. In the rest of the state,
the number of voters was down just 25 percent. In Boston — one of the strongest areas for Democrats — the number voting fell 35 percent.
Comparing Brown’s win with the last Republican victory
Towns where more than 60 percent of registered voters have no party affiliation
Former Gov. Mitt Romney — the last Republican, before Mr. Brown, to win a major statewide election in Massachusetts — succeeded in the 2002 governor’s race by making gains in traditionally
Democratic areas while carrying independent voters in the suburbs. Mr. Brown received fewer votes than Mr. Romney in Democratic strongholds in the western part of the state and in urban areas surrounding
Boston. But he commanded a larger share of the vote than Mr. Romney in most of the state, especially in areas with a lot of independents.
By MATTHEW BLOCH, AMANDA COX, MATTHEW ERICSON, FARHANA HOSSAIN and ARCHIE TSE
|
Sources: Results data from The Associated Press; historical results from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections; demographic data from Andrew Beveridge, Queens College Sociology Department
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