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Climate change could pose disadvantageous risks to the islands in the Caribbean[1]. The environmental changes expected to affect the Caribbean are a rise in sea level, stronger hurricanes, longer dry seasons and shorter wet seasons[1][2]. As a result, climate change is expected to lead to changes in the economy, environment and population of the Caribbean[3][4][5][6][7].
The Caribbean is composed of an archipelago of islands between North and South America. These islands are Antigua, Aruba, Barbados, Bonaire, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Curacao, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Grenada, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Saba, Saint Croix, Saint Eustatius, Saint John, Saint Kitts, Saint Lucia, Saint Thomas, Saint Vincent, the Bahamas, Tortola, and Trinidad and Tobago.The climate average annual temperature of the Caribbean is 81° F[8].
Rising sea levels are expected to cause coastal erosion due to climate change. According to NASA, the sea level is expected to increase by 0.3–1 metre (1–4 ft) by 2100[2]. Rise in sea level could impact coastal communities of the Caribbean if they are less than 3 metres (10 ft) above the sea. In Latin American and the Caribbean, it is expected that 29 – 32 million people may be affected by the sea level rise because they live below this threshold. The Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago are expected to be the most affected because at least 80% of the total land is below the sea level[9][10]. Coastal loses range between US$ 940 million to $1.2 billion in the 22 largest coastal cities in Latin America and the Caribbean[6]. Main sources of income, such as tourism, will also be affected because many of the main touristic attractions such as beaches and hotels are near the coast. In 2004, a study reported that 12 million tourists had visited the Caribbean.
An increase in air and sea surface temperature is predicted to promote the development of stronger tropical cyclone (also known as hurricanes). Key factors that lead to the development of hurricanes are the warm temperatures of the air and sea surface. The higher temperatures increase the probability of the storm to become a hurricane. This provides the energy for the hurricane to intensify.[11][12]
In September 2017, the United States National Hurricane Center reported that the North Atlantic basin was highly active because four tropical storms formed and they all became hurricanes. They report a higher than average record on the number of tropical storms that developed into hurricanes this year[13]. Two of these four hurricanes, Irma and Maria, hit the islands in the Caribbean. Once at the Caribbean, both Irma and Maria became Category 5 hurricanes[14]. NASA reported that the temperature of the sea surface in the Caribbean when Irma became a hurricane was 30 °C (86 °F)[13]. The required temperature for the development of a major storm is suggested to be higher than 27 °C (80 °F)[12].
Hurricanes of category 5 have wind speeds greater than 157 mph [11]. In addition to strong, Hurricanes Irma and Maria also carried more rainfall than previous storms. The warmer the air temperature the more water can be held by air leading to more precipitation. Multiple sources suggest that this increase in strengthening and precipitation in recent hurricanes is due to climate change[15][14][16][17]. Hurricane Irma and Maria had a total of 510 millimetres (20 in) of rainfall. In Cuba, Hurricane Irma sustained precipitation was at 270 millimetres (10.8 in) per hour. In Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria had a sustained precipitation of 164 millimetres (6.44 in) per hour.[14]
An increase in surface temperature has also been suggested to affect the coral reefs. In 2005 in the Caribbean, a rise in the sea surface temperature is thought to have caused widespread coral bleaching. In this study, they evaluate if this increase in sea surface temperature was due to natural climate variability or human activity. They concluded that it would be very unlikely that natural climate variability alone could account for this event. Their model suggests that this event would occur once every 1000 years if human activity is not taken into consideration in the model.[18]
The Caribbean is in a particularly difficult position to address climate change. This region generates negligible emissions of greenhouse gases but are already experiencing the effects of climate change. The long history of colonialism for the extraction of goods, such as sugar, in the Caribbean has left them dependent on colonial entities. This has created a disadvantage to the Caribbean as they lack the ability to compete with the current global economy and be self-sufficient. Centuries of colonialism has generated a feedback loop of the dependence of the Caribbean’s economy on global powers.[3] The damages expected from climate change will weaken the economy of the Caribbean as it will target some of the major sources of income, like tourism. A study by Reyer et al., 2017[6] predicts the impacts that hurricanes will have per year on the economy of the Caribbean in the next century. They suggest that the Caribbean by 2100 will spend between US$350 to $550 million dollars or about 11% to 17% of the current GDP for hurricane damages annually. They expect that the Bahamas, Haiti, and Jamaica are the islands that will suffer the most from climate change. In addition, they suggest that agricultural and rural areas are among the sectors that will be most affected by hurricanes in the Caribbean. They estimate that damages to these areas could cost about US$3 million per year by 2050 and US$12 – $15 million by 2100.[6]
The same study estimated that 25% to 35% of the Caribbean’s economy relies on tourism.[9]
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