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The Division of Braddon (Tas) in the House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 73,670 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 90.38%  3.71 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Braddon took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent LaborMPJustine Keay.[1]
In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate.[2]
The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.
Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Keay and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:
A redistribution of the Tasmanian federal electoral divisions was completed in 2017, however by-elections are conducted under existing boundaries, as redistributed boundaries do not come into effect until the subsequent federal election.[5][6]
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]
| Candidates (8) in ballot paper order[8] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
| Greens | Jarrod Edwards | Indigenous land management supervisor.[9] | |
| SFF | Brett Neal | Farmer.[10] | |
| Independent | Donna Gibbons | Registered nurse and small business owner.[8] | |
| Liberal Democrats | Joshua Boag | Sheetmetal fabricator. Contested Braddon at the 2016 federal election.[8] | |
| Liberal | Brett Whiteley | One-term MP for Braddon elected at the 2013 federal election.[11] | |
| Independent | Craig Garland | Fisherman. Contested Braddon at the 2018 state election.[12] | |
| People | Bruno Strangio | Has managed numerous real estate and construction enterprises.[8] | |
| Labor | Justine Keay | Previous MP for Braddon elected at the 2016 federal election.[13] | |
| Date | Firm | Commissioned by | Sample | MoE | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | GRN | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||||
| 24−26 July 2018 | Newspoll | The Australian[14] | 1002 | ±3.1% | 40% | 43% | 5% | 12% | 51% | 49% | |
| 19 July 2018 | ReachTEL | Aus. Forest Products Assoc.[15][16] | 810 | ±3.4% | 36.0% | 42.7% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 52% | 48% | |
| 2 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Sky News[17] | >800 | ±3.4% | 33% | 47% | 6% | 14% | 46% | 54% | |
| 2016 election | 40.0% | 41.5% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 52.2% | 47.8% | |||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Brett Whiteley | 24,645 | 39.26 | −2.24 | |
| Labor | Justine Keay | 23,218 | 36.98 | −3.07 | |
| Independent | Craig Garland | 6,633 | 10.57 | +10.57 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Brett Neal | 2,984 | 4.75 | +4.75 | |
| Greens | Jarrod Edwards | 2,518 | 4.01 | −2.73 | |
| Independent | Donna Gibbons | 1,533 | 2.44 | +2.44 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Joshua Boag | 828 | 1.32 | −0.81 | |
| People's Party | Bruno Strangio | 421 | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Total formal votes | 62,780 | 94.29 | −0.48 | ||
| Informal votes | 3,804 | 5.71 | +0.48 | ||
| Turnout | 66,584 | 90.38 | −3.71 | ||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| Labor | Justine Keay | 32,842 | 52.31 | +0.11 | |
| Liberal | Brett Whiteley | 29,938 | 47.69 | −0.11 | |
| Labor hold | Swing | +0.11 | |||
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