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Division of Eden-Monaro (NSW) in the House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 114,244 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 89.08%  4.23% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 The Division of Eden-Monaro in New South Wales | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2020 Eden-Monaro by-election was held on 4 July 2020 to elect the next Member of the Australian Parliament for the division of Eden-Monaro in the House of Representatives. The by-election was triggered following the resignation of incumbent LaborMPMike Kelly. Kelly resigned on 30 April 2020, citing ill health.[1]
The poll occurred amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, and was the first by-election of the 46th Parliament of Australia. On the morning after the by-election, ABC News psephologist Antony Green called the election for the Labor candidate Kristy McBain.[2]
The electorate of Eden-Monaro has long been regarded as a bellwether seat. From the 1972 federal election to the 2013 federal election, the seat was won by a member of the same political party that also formed government following the election. At the 2016 election, the seat was won by Mike Kelly, who defeated incumbent LiberalMPPeter Hendy. Kelly, a veteran of the Australian Army, had previously represented the electorate in the House of Representatives between 2007 and 2013, and retained his seat at the 2019 election despite a 2% swing against him. At the time, Eden-Monaro was Labor's fourth-most marginal seat, held by a margin of only 0.85%.[3]
| Election | 1996 | 1998 | 2001 | 2004 | 2007 | 2010 | 2013 | 2016 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor | 45.24% | 49.82% | 48.31% | 47.86% | 53.40% | 54.24% | 49.39% | 52.93% | 50.85% | |
| Liberal | 54.76% | 50.18% | 51.69% | 52.14% | 46.60% | 45.76% | 50.61% | 47.07% | 49.15% | |
| Government | LNP | LNP | LNP | LNP | ALP | ALP | LNP | LNP | LNP | |
Prime Minister and Leader of the Liberal Party Scott Morrison confirmed that the party would contest a by-election in Eden-Monaro were it to occur.[4] Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the National Party Michael McCormack also declared his party would contest the by-election.[5]
After speculation that he would retire from politics, Kelly announced his resignation on 30 April, citing personal health issues relating to his time in the Australian Army.[1][6][7]
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[8]
Kristy McBain, Mayor of Bega Valley Shire, nominated for Labor preselection on 1 May 2020. Anthony Albanese, the federal Labor leader, endorsed McBain as his preferred candidate later that day.[9] On 4 May, McBain was preselected as Labor's candidate, against Yass Valley branch president Michael Pilbrow.[10]
On 5 May, Andrew Constance, New South Wales Minister for Transport and Roads and state MP for Bega confirmed that he would seek Liberal Party preselection, before announcing the following day he would not run for the seat.[11][12] Jerry Nockles, a former Navy seaman, and Pru Gordon, the general manager for economics and trade at the National Farmers' Federation, were also named as potential candidates.[13][14]
Preselection for the Liberal Party was held on 22–23 May, and was contested by two candidates:[15]
Following the preselection, Kotvojs was endorsed as the Liberal Party candidate.[16][17]
John Barilaro, the Deputy Premier of New South Wales and state MP for Monaro, had publicly expressed interest in running for Nationals preselection,[18] though on 4 May he announced that he would not stand for the seat.[19]
Preselection for the National Party was held on 6 June, and was contested by four candidates:[20]
Following the preselection, Hicks was endorsed as the National Party candidate.[21]
| Candidates (14) in ballot paper order | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Background | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Matthew Stadtmiller | Hilltops councillor. Contested Cootamundraat2017 state by-election and 2019 state election.[22] | |
| Science | James Jansson | Software developer, epidemiologist and party founder. Contested Kingsford Smith at the 2019 federal election.[23] | |
| HEMP | Michael Balderstone | Party leader and perennial candidate. Cannabis legalisation activist and president of the Nimbin Hemp Embassy.[24] | |
| Independent | James Holgate | Recruitment consultant.[25] | |
| National | Trevor Hicks | Former Queanbeyan–Palerang deputy mayor.[26] | |
| Liberal Democrats | Dean McCrae | Chef and party branch coordinator. Contested Goulburn and Lyne at the 2019 state and federal elections, respectively.[27] | |
| Sustainable Australia | Joy Angel | Office manager. Contested ACT Senate seat at the 2019 federal election.[28] | |
| Labor | Kristy McBain | Mayor of Bega Valley Shire.[10] | |
| Independent | Riccardo Bosi | Businessman, veteran and founder of unregistered Australia One party.[29] | |
| Independent | Karen Porter | Small business owner, member of unregistered New Liberals party.[30] | |
| Greens | Cathy Griff | Bega Valley Shire councillor.[31] | |
| Christian Democrats | Narelle Storey | Carer, founder of not-for-profit platform ReStore Australia. Contested Werriwa at the 2019 federal election.[32] | |
| Australian Federation | Jason Potter | Business consultant.[33] | |
| Liberal | Fiona Kotvojs | Former teacher, scientist and small business operator. Contested Eden-Monaro at the 2019 federal election.[17] | |
| Date | Firm | Commissioned by | Sample | Primary vote | TPP vote | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | GRN | NAT | SFF | OTH | ALP | LIB | NAT | |||||
| 30 June 2020 | uComms | Australia Institute[34] | 643 | 38.1% | 37.5% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 7.9% | 52% | 48% | – | |
| 16 June 2020 | uComms | Australian Forest Products Association[35] | 816 | – | – | 6.3% | 6.7% | 3.6% | – | 52% | 48% | – | |
| 15 June 2020 | uComms | Australia Institute[35] | 643 | 36.5% | 29.9% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 53% | 47% | – | |
| c. 12 June 2020 | Internal polling | Unconfirmed[36] | 600 | 31% | 38% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 14%^ | – | – | – | |
| 12 May 2020 | uComms | Australia Institute[37][38] | 978 | 39.8% | 34.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | – | 11.9%^ | 51.1% | 48.9% | – | |
| 1 May 2020 | Internal polling | National Party[39] | 1296 | 35% | 21% | 8% | 30% | – | 6% | 48% | – | 52% | |
| 30 April 2020 | Mike Kelly announces retirement | ||||||||||||
| 18 May 2019 election | 39.2% | 37.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | – | 8.1% | 50.8% | 49.2% | – | ||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Fiona Kotvojs | 36,388 | 38.33 | +1.33 | |
| Labor | Kristy McBain | 34,073 | 35.89 | −3.28 | |
| National | Trevor Hicks | 6,052 | 6.38 | −0.57 | |
| Greens | Cathy Griff | 5,385 | 5.67 | −3.11 | |
| Shooters, Fishers, Farmers | Matthew Stadtmiller | 5,066 | 5.34 | +5.34 | |
| HEMP | Michael Balderstone | 2,154 | 2.27 | +2.27 | |
| Independent New Liberals | Karen Porter | 1,218 | 1.28 | +1.28 | |
| Science | James Jansson | 1,071 | 1.13 | +1.13 | |
| Sustainable Australia | Joy Angel | 944 | 0.99 | +0.99 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Dean McCrae | 651 | 0.69 | +0.69 | |
| Independent | James Holgate | 636 | 0.67 | −1.23 | |
| Christian Democrats | Narelle Storey | 614 | 0.65 | −0.52 | |
| Independent Australia One | Riccardo Bosi | 513 | 0.54 | +0.54 | |
| Australian Federation | Jason Potter | 170 | 0.18 | +0.18 | |
| Total formal votes | 94,935 | 93.29 | +0.09 | ||
| Informal votes | 6,832 | 6.71 | −0.09 | ||
| Turnout | 101,767 | 89.08 | −4.23 | ||
| Two-party-preferred result | |||||
| Labor | Kristy McBain | 47,835 | 50.39 | −0.46 | |
| Liberal | Fiona Kotvojs | 47,100 | 49.61 | +0.46 | |
| Labor hold | Swing | −0.46 | |||
