Contents

2024 New Brunswick general election

2024 New Brunswick general election

← 2020 On or before October 21, 2024 Next →
49 seats in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick 25 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Blaine Higgs Susan Holt Party Progressive Conservative Liberal Leader since October 22, 2016 August 6, 2022 Leader's seat Quispamsis Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore[a] Last election 27 seats, 39.34% 17 seats, 34.35% Current seats 25 16   Leader David Coon Rick DeSaulniers Party Green People's Alliance Leader since September 22, 2012 April 22, 2022 Leader's seat Fredericton South[b] N/A[c] Last election 3 seats, 15.24% 2 seats, 9.19% Current seats 3 0
Incumbent Premier Blaine Higgs Progressive Conservative

The 2024 New Brunswick general election is scheduled to be held on or before October 21, 2024, according to the Legislative Assembly Act of 2017 which states that an election should be held every four years on the third Monday in October;^[3] the election still must be held on a Monday if called sooner.^[4] It will be held to select 49 members of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick of the 61st New Brunswick legislature.

Background

Defections and de-registration of the People's Alliance

On March 30, 2022, Kris Austin and Michelle Conroy announced their departures from the People's Alliance to join the Progressive Conservatives. Austin said that the result of the 2020 provincial election, when the party lost one of its three seats, had prompted him to undertake some “soul-searching”, but that he believed he had changed politics in New Brunswick.^[5] Both Austin and Conroy stated that they believed they could better represent their ridings from within government.^[6]

Premier and Progressive Conservative leader Blaine Higgs expressed excitement about his party's new MLAs, but reiterated the party's support for official bilingualism when questioned about the People's Alliance's previous stances on the issue. The acceptance of MLAs who had expressed anti-bilingual opinions was criticized by the Acadian Society of New Brunswick, an organization promoting the rights of francophones in the province, when their president Alexandre Cédric Doucet said that he was happy to see the Alliance dissolve, but that it was "a sad day" for the Progressive Conservatives.^[6]

The Chief Electoral Officer of New Brunswick confirmed that the Peoples Alliance of New Brunswick would be deregistered as a provincial party on March 31, 2022.^[7] In April 2022, interim leader Rick DeSaulniers and party announced plans to re-register as a party.^[8] Elections New Brunswick confirmed the party was re-registered in May 2022.^[9]

Current standings

Summary of seat changes

Issues

Education

New Brunswick has been experiencing major education shortcomings during the 2020s, with the province experiencing massive shortages in teachers and school psychologists,^[14][15] along with school bus drivers in some areas. Schools throughout the province have also reported exceptionally low child literacy rates, with a 2021–22 report concluding that literacy standards were not met by around 40% of the province's fourth grade students, the lowest it has been in 18 years.^[16] Kelly Lamrock, the New Brunswick Child and Youth advocate, further reported that child literacy rates had declined by 29% over the past decade.^[17] After being released in November 2023, the 2022–23 report for fourth grade student literacy rates showed further decline, with 43.4% scoring "below appropriate achievement" after being assessed for English reading.^[18]

In late 2023, the New Brunswick Teachers' Association (NBTA) called for the provincial government regarding concerns raised from a NBTA survey on its members. Concerns noted "understaffed classrooms and overcrowded buildings, with uncertified community members, people without without a bachelor of education, sometimes taking the place of actual teachers because of shortages." Many of the 2,916 survey participants reported teaching in overcrowded and poorly ventilated schools, with half also experiencing verbal and physical abuse. Those who called for these issues to be addressed included Liberal leader Susan Holt as well as Kevin Arseneau, a Green MLA for Kent North.^[19]

In May 2024, the NBTA projected over 1,200 anglophone teachers that will be eligible for retirement within the next five years, with Peter Lagacy, the NBTA president, adding that this is "an alarming number when we look at how many we have coming into the system."^[20]

Staff shortages

New Brunswick's public school system has been notably experiencing shortages in teachers,^[21][22] school psychologists and, in certain areas, bus drivers.^[23]

While proposing changes for Policy 713, Higgs proposed for "extra counsellors, extra support." According to figures from November 2023, however, the number of school psychologists dropped; out of a total of 28 'full-time equivalent' school psychologist positions filled throughout the province, only six served the province's English school system of approximately 73,000 students.^[14]

School busing shortcomings

An audit which took place between January and February in 2024 concluded that the provincial Department of Education "lacks oversight on school bus safety and driver requirements."^[24] Using a sample size of 65 bus drivers out of a total of around 1,300, the audit reported that 46% of New Brunswick's school bus drivers had ineligible licensing requirements. Additionally, 20% were hired without checking for criminal records, and further percentages of bus drivers had no evidence of bus training (37%) and first aid training (42%). The audit also conducted vehicle inspections on a number of buses, with 45% having deficiencies.^[25][26] Francine Landry, the Liberal MLA for Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston, criticized the provincial government led by Higgs for "touting their record on keeping children safe, while failing to fulfil the most basic requirements for doing so." Education Minister Bill Hogan responded, saying that "clearly there's some work to be done in that area in making sure that they're inspected on time."^[24]

Policy 713

Policy 713, a provincial education policy which sets minimum requirements for public schools and districts in the province related to individuals identifying and perceived as LGBTQIA2S+, became the subject of massive debate following a 2023 decision made to review and ultimately revise the policy by the Progressive Conservative-led government under Higgs and Bill Hogan, the Minister of Education and Early Childhood Development. In the aftermath of its revision, a third of the Progressive Conservative caucus members elected under Higgs have either resigned or announced that they would not seek re-election, with some criticizing Higgs' leadership and highlighting a growing disconnect between their personal beliefs and the party's stance. The revision has led the government to becoming in legal disputes with its education departments as well as with the Canadian Civil Liberties Association, who filed a lawsuit against the government, citing violations against the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms and New Brunswick's human rights and education acts. The issue has been the subject of widespread coverage and dispute, and has been covered by major news publications including The Washington Post,^[27] The New York Times,^[28] and BBC.^[29]

Lindsay Jones of The Globe And Mail called the Policy 713 dispute as having "emerged as perhaps the key issue in the next election."^[30]

Healthcare

Healthcare in New Brunswick has been described as being in a "state of chaos,"^[31] with hospitals throughout the province experiencing an overcapacity of patients,^[32] excessively long waiting times,^[33] and health workers experiencing burnout.^[34] During a February 2023 press conference, Blaine Higgs stated that "if every doctor in our province took two or three more patients a week, we wouldn't have a backlog."^[35] In an Angus Reid survey that recorded Canadians' satisfaction with how their province is dealing with healthcare, New Brunswick recorded the largest drop in satisfaction rate compared to rates surveyed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with a rate of just 11 percent, compared to a previous rate of 42 percent.^[36]

Following overcrowding at the Dr. Everett Chalmers Regional Hospital emergency room at the start of 2024, Green leader David Coon called for "immediate changes" as well as for the government to increase funding.^[37]

On May 28, 2024, a CUPE Local 1292-sponsored leaders' debate covering the topic of healthcare was aired on Rogers TV;^[38] Blaine Higgs, Susan Holt and David Coon were invited to participate, though Higgs declined to attend.^[39]

According to Rob McKee, the Liberal health critic, 160,000 people in New Brunswick, or roughly 20 percent of the population, do not have a family doctorornurse practitioner as of late May 2024. The numbers were disputed by Bruce Fitch, the Minister of Health.^[40]

During the final session of the 60th legislature held on June 7, 2024, Higgs and Holt clashed during question period; one of the topics included the funding spent on travel nurses, amounted to nearly CA$174 million, which was revealed to have been "partly mismanaged" according to a report by the auditor general.^[41]

Out-of-province activities

New Brunswick, unlike most provinces, allows political party funding from non-residents. In January 2024, Liberal and Green leaders Holt and Coon both made a promise to forbid New Brunswick political party donations from out-of-province sources in response to Higgs going to Alberta and British Columbia on a fundraising trip for his party.^[42]

Campaign

Progressive Conservative

In November 2023, the Progressive Conservatives hired Steve Outhouse as its campaign manager. Outhouse had previously served as chief of staff and as director of communications for federal Conservative cabinet ministers, and served as campaign manager for the re-election of the United Conservative Party in the 2023 Alberta general election.^[43] In April 2024, Outhouse was also hired as principal secretary to Premier Blaine Higgs, which is a taxpayer-funded position that will earn up to CA$124,656 during the six-month contract.^[44] The contract drew criticism from Green leader David Coon, who estimated the position's pay band as being at a much lower rate of CA$150,000–175,000 annually,^[45] as well as from Liberal MLA and former Progressive Conservative Robert Gauvin, who stated that it was "unfair that New Brunswick taxpayers are paying him for that," believing that "this contract should be cut and the money should be reimbursed."^[44] Higgs defended the value of the contract by reading extensively from Outhouse's resumé and stating that he comes with, "an extensive degree of credentials and relevant experience to what we experience as a government."^[46]

Jacques PoitrasofCBC News described the Progressive Conservative campaign under Outhouse's contract as adopting "a more pointed, aggressive style of advertising against the opposition Liberals." The campaign particularly attacked Susan Holt while "trying to link her to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's carbon tax and other policies." Jeff Carr, a Progressive Conservative MLA who previously announced that he would not be seeking candidacy in the election, criticized a post his party made targeting a 2014 quote by Holt regarding "closing some schools in the province." Carr stated that the post omitted important context "for political gain (misleading the electorate)," calling it "disappointing."^[44]

Liberal

Throughout the months leading up to the election, Liberal leader Susan Holt started distancing herself from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau amongst attacks from the Progressive Conservatives attempting to link them together throughout the decline in popularity for Trudeau. Holt stated that "the New Brunswick Liberal Party is a separate entity from the federal party the prime minister leads."^[47]

When asked by Brunswick News about her summer campaign plans, Holt shared plans of touring around the province and stopping by each riding, with 207 "touchpoints" with "festivals and celebrations," while also focusing on her home riding.^[4]

Greens

In late 2023, Green Party leader David Coon stated that his goal was to "elect as many Green MLAs as possible." Additionally, Coon proposed that he would be open to the idea of collaborating with the Liberals to prevent Higgs from remaining in power if an early election results in him losing seat majority. Coon's negotiation proposal reflected his stance from the 2018 election when he was willing to talk with both parties, prior to the Progressive Conservatives securing the backing from the People's Alliance.^[48]

Coon, like Holt, was also asked by Brunswick News about his campaign plans for the summer; he shared that he, along with his deputies, Kevin Arseneau and Megan Mitton, are going to be『fanning out across the province, launching new candidates’ campaigns that haven’t been launched yet, and attending festivals and events, and generally holding our own events as well.』Coon said that the largest issues that all Green candidates have noticeably heard are healthcare, along with "affordability and affordable housing," adding that『People want to see change. They want to see change that’s for the better, not change back.』Coon also highlighted a lack in rural development in the province, mentioning that "there's plenty of talk about communities losing services" in rural areas.^[4]

Opinion polls

Candidates

Retiring incumbents

The following sitting MLAs have announced that they would not seek re-election:

Progressive Conservative

Liberal

Independent

Legend

• bold denotes cabinet minister, speaker or party leader
• † denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in nomination contest
• # denotes an incumbent seeking re-election in a new district

Northern

Miramichi

Southeastern

Southern

Capital Region

Upper River Valley

Notes

References

Opinion poll sources