The official title of the 2024 Washington summit is "Ukraine and transatlantic security",[3] thus highlighting the focus on NATO's response to escalating global threats to peace and democracies, with particular attention to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, including North Korea's exports of military equipment to Russia used in the war against Ukraine.[4] The summit will also focus on boosting defense production and reaffirming Allies' commitment to military readiness and the defense of all of NATO's territory.[5][6]
Despite the controversial mobilization law passed in Ukraine in 2024,[7] which lowered the mobilization age from 27 to 25, Ukraine still faces a severe manpower shortage.[8][9] With a population of 144 million people,[10] Russia significantly outnumbers Ukraine's 38 million in 2022.[11] This demographic advantage gives Russia greater manpower resources. However, Russian losses in the war are generally considered higher than Ukraine's. Both have lost significant amounts of personnel, though no precise numbers can be given until the invasion ends and all cases are investigated.[12][13]
On 14 May 2024, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived to Kyiv announced to reaffirm the support of his country, less than a month after Congress approved a $60 billion aid package.[14] With expedited delivery of military assistance, including artillery and air defense systems, the trip underscored the Biden administration's commitment to Ukraine's long-term security amidst escalating conflict.[15] Blinken stated, "We are with you today. And we will stay by your side until Ukraine's security, sovereignty, its ability to choose its own path is guaranteed."[16]
On the morning of 24 May, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said in a state radio broadcast that his government planned to redefine Hungary's NATO membership "without taking part in NATO operations outside NATO territory" due to his stance on foreign aid to Ukraine.[17][18] Orbán remains the only leader of a European Union member state and NATO member who, despite united efforts to support Ukraine economically, militarily, and politically,[19][20] has maintained close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.[21] Previously, in January 2024, the EU threatened to impose voting sanctions on Hungary and permanently shut off all EU funding if Orbán's government blocked €50 billion (approximately 54 billion US dollars) in aid to Ukraine once again.[22][23] This resulted in Hungary dropping its veto, and a successful EU agreement on $54 billion to Ukraine.[24][25]
On 24 May 2024, the State Department announced that Secretary of State Antony Blinken would visit Eastern Europe amidst escalating concerns over Russia's advances in Ukraine as it opened a new northern front with an attack on the Kharkiv region,[26][27] potential Russian interference in Moldova,[28] and Georgian protests against a proposed "foreign agent" bill similar to Russia's.[29][30] Blinken visited Chişinau on 29 May and Prague on 30 and 31 May. He met Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský and other officials to deliberate on support for Ukraine, alongside the Georgian "foreign agent" bill.[31][32]
On 3 May, during a visit to Kyiv, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that Ukraine had the decision as to how it would use British weapons and the right to strike with them inside Russia. This was a major policy change on the part of the United Kingdom, a nuclear state and key NATO member.[33] Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov and the spokeswoman for Ministry of Foreign AffairsMaria Zakharova condemned the decision.[34] On 29 May, representatives of Finland, Canada, and Poland issued separate statements saying that Ukraine can strike valid military targets inside Russia using their weapons.[35]
By the end of May, several leaders had also endorsed lifting the concurrent ban on Western-supplied weapons, including presidents Emmanuel Macron of France, Edgars Rinkēvičs of Latvia, and Alar Karis of Estonia; German Chancellor Olaf Scholz; and prime ministers Alexander De Croo of Belgium, Petr Fiala of the Czech Republic and Mette Frederiksen of Denmark, as well as the foreign ministers of Canada, Lithuania, Norway, the United Kingdom and Poland; and the defence ministers of Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden. Conversely, Belgium and Italy were against the use of Western-supplied weapons by Ukraine to strike targets within Russia.[36][37]
On 30 May, US President Joe Biden implicitly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia, but only near the Kharkiv Oblast, with no exact borderlines defined.[38] The decision came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials urged their allies to allow Ukraine to strike inside Russia with Western-supplied weapons in response to the daily bombings of Ukrainian cities by Russian forces from military bases located inside Russia.[37] Shortly after the US lifted these restrictions, the German government gave permission for Ukraine to use its weapons inside Russia.[39] This came with a "just over the border" striking policy limited to Kharkiv Oblast, where Russia launched an offensive and made tactical gains.[40][41]
On 17 June, while visiting President Biden in Washington, D.C. ahead of the summit, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that a record 23 of 32 NATO member states were meeting their defense spending targets of 2% of their country's GDP.[42][43] According to NATO, defense spending for European member states and Canada was up 18%.[42][43]
The Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004, which nullified the election of pro-Russian presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych, still did not reflect on public opinion with a significant vote of 60% against joining NATO.[44][45]
Following the Russian annexation of Crimea and pro-Russian unrest in 2014, Ukrainian support for NATO membership has been growing gradually. After the 2022 invasion, public stances on membership significantly changed from a relatively low 59.2% in favour and 28.1% against in 2021 to a resounding 89% in favour by May 2023.[46] Subsequently, the rate stabilized at 77% in favor and 5% against by 2024.[47]
At an Atlantic Council event, US permanent representative to NATO Julianne Smith indicated that NATO was not ready to extend a formal invitation to Ukraine for membership during the previous year's summit in Vilnius and is unlikely to do so at the upcoming Washington summit. Instead, she expects NATO allies to provide Ukraine with a "deliverable" that would bring the country closer to membership, focusing on institutionalizing the bilateral support that has grown over the past two years. While details on this deliverable remain unclear, Smith emphasized NATO's ongoing commitment to Ukraine through measures like the NATO-Ukraine Council, established at the 2023 NATO summit.[48]
NATO officially highlights support for Ukraine is unwavering, with the alliance determined to stand by Ukraine indefinitely. This stance is meant to send a strong message to Russia that NATO allies remain united and committed.[49][50]
Although some NATO members, particularly those in Eastern Europe, pushed for Ukrainian accession to the alliance, they considered it to not be possible before the invasion ends due to the implication that NATO could be considered to be directly involved in the war with Russia if Ukraine were already made a member.[51][52]
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