InU.S. politics, a primary challenge is when an incumbent holding elective office is challenged by a member of their own political party in a primary election. Such events, known informally as "being primaried," are noteworthy and not frequent in the United States, as traditionally political parties support incumbents, both for party unity and to minimize the possibility of losing the seat to an opposing party. In addition, officeholders are frequently seen as de facto leaders of their party, eligible to establish policy and administer affairs as they see fit. A primary challenge thus interferes with this "spoil of office," and is largely discouraged. Though typically used to describe challenges to elected officials, the term is also applied to officeholders such as appointed U.S. senators.[1]
In jurisdictions predominantly under the political control of a single political party, or where the overwhelming majority of registered voters (in jurisdictions that require party registration) belong to a single party (a "safe seat"), there is likely to be less fear of opposing parties gaining sufficient support to mount a credible challenge. In such an area, particularly those that have been gerrymandered, members of the party feel more at ease to challenge current officeholders, because no loss of the seat is expected.
Skewed electorate and issue advocacy group participation[edit]
Primary elections in the United States generally draw a very low voter turnout. In addition, only a small portion of the public may be educated on the issue stances of all primary candidates, as primary elections typically use little or no mass media advertising. Party activists, ideologues, and local party leaders may constitute an unusually high number of, or exert disproportionate levels of influence on, those who actually vote.
This situation provides opportunities for organizations focused on a single issue, such as gun control, taxation, or abortion. Such organizations may be able to convince their supporters to endure the difficulty of voting, while other eligible voters may not want to take the trouble for a "minor election."
Since the advent of the modern primary election system in 1972, an incumbent president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, though every president who faced a strong primary challenge went on to be defeated in the general election.[2][3]
In the 1992 Republican Party presidential primaries, President George H. W. Bush had lost much support of conservatives within the Republican Party for breaking his promise to not implement new taxes when he had been forced to do so in an effort to lower the deficit and strengthen the economy. Pat Buchanan would go on to challenge him but failed to win any contests, but won almost a quarter of the vote. In the general election, independent candidate Ross Perot would go on to make the deficit central to his campaign. Bush went on to lose the general election.
In the 1980 Democratic Party presidential primaries, President Jimmy Carter, unpopular due to his handling of the 1979 oil crisis and rising inflation, was challenged by Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts and Governor Jerry Brown of California. Brown dropped out of the race in April, while Kennedy remained and ultimately won 12 primaries.[4] Carter's popularity rose sharply due to his initial handling of the Iran hostage crisis, but momentum built for Ted Kennedy, who won several major late primaries after Carter's attempt to rescue the hostages ended in disaster and drew further skepticism towards Carter's leadership ability.[5] Carter had maintained a sizable delegate lead and won on the first ballot of the 1980 Democratic National Convention. Carter went on to lose the general election.
In the 1976 Republican Party presidential primaries, President Gerald Ford, who was never elected president or vice president, and ascended to the presidency after being appointed vice president by Richard Nixon, faced a challenge from former California governor Ronald Reagan. Ford's popularity with voters suffered from his decision to pardon Nixon for his role in the Watergate scandal.[6] Reagan won 24 primaries, but was narrowly defeated by Ford on the first ballot of the 1976 Republican National Convention. Ford went on to lose the general election.
Sabato's Crystal Ball tabulated that from 1946 to 2018, only 4% of incumbent U.S. senators running in primaries were unseated by challengers. This figure includes incumbents running unopposed or against paper candidates, meaning credible primary challengers have a higher rate of success.[8]
2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts: Ed Markey was challenged by Rep. Joe Kennedy III in the Democratic primary. Markey received the support of the Democratic Senate leadership, while Kennedy received the support of the Democratic House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi, marking a rare occurrence of party leaders supporting a primary challenge.[9] Markey went on to win renomination and the general election.
2002 United States Senate election in New Hampshire: Bob Smith was defeated by John E. Sununu for the Republican nomination.[14] Smith had become unpopular with Republican voters after he left the Republican party three years earlier, claiming that its platform was "not worth the paper it's written on", but rejoined a few months later, saying he made a mistake.[15] Sununu won the general election.
From 1946 to 2018, only 1.6% of incumbent representatives running in primaries were defeated by challengers. This percentage also includes incumbents running against other incumbents because of House seats being eliminated by reapportioning, which are typically not referred to as primary challenges; if reapportioning years are excluded less than 1% of incumbents are defeated. This also includes incumbents running unopposed or against paper candidates, meaning credible primary challengers have a higher rate of success.[17]
2022: Of the ten Republicans who supported the second impeachment of Donald Trump in 2021, six ran for reelection in 2022, and all faced significant competition in their primaries. All three representatives who competed in partisan primaries–Peter Meijer, Tom Rice and Liz Cheney–were unseated by Trump-backed challengers. Jaime Herrera Beutler failed to advance to the general election after finishing behind a Trump-backed challenger in a blanket primary. Only Dan Newhouse and David Valadao, who competed in blanket primaries, advanced to the general election; Valadao was the only representative who did not face a Trump-backed challenger.[18]
2018: Two members of "the Squad" unseated Democratic incumbents: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez defeated Joe Crowley, the chair of the Democratic caucus, and Ayanna Pressley defeated Mike Capuano, a ten-term incumbent.[19] On the Republican side, Rep. Mark Sanford was defeated by Katie Arrington after Arrington received the support of President Donald Trump, marking a rare occurrence of a president endorsing a primary challenger to an incumbent of his own party.[20] Arrington went on to lose the general election.
2014: David Brat, a college professor and political newcomer, defeated Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, for the Republican nomination in Virginia's 7th district in an upset, marking the first time a majority leader had lost a primary.[21]
As of 2018, 14% of incumbent governors running in contested primaries were defeated by challengers.[22]
2018 Kansas gubernatorial election: Incumbent Jeff Colyer, who had succeeded as governor when Sam Brownback resigned, narrowly lost the Republican primary to Kris Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state, who was perceived as a far-right figure due to his stance on immigration. Kobach lost the general election to Democrat Laura Kelly despite Kansas's strong Republican tilt in other recent elections.
Bruce E. Cain, Karin Mac Donald and Michael McDonald, From Equality to Fairness: The Path of Political Reform since Baker v Carr, address to the Brookings Institution/Institute of Governmental Studies, Conference on "Competition, Partisanship, and Congressional Redistricting", April 16, 2004 [2]
Amity Shlaes, CAFTA vote about more than trade, Jewish World Review, May 18, 2005 [3]
