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Beshear: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2007 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2007. In this election, incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher ran for reelection to a second term, but was soundly defeated by Democratic challenger Steve Beshear. A primary election to determine the Republican and Democratic nominees for governor was held on May 22, 2007, in which Fletcher and Beshear won their respective primaries.[1] Steve Beshear's son Andy was elected Kentucky's State Attorney General in 2015 [2] and Kentucky's Governor in 2019 and 2023.
Fletcher came under increasing criticism from both parties after his involvement in a state employee hiring controversy, in which he was accused of illegally hiring merit system (civil service) employees for their political affiliations and loyalties. An investigation by Greg Stumbo, the Attorney General of Kentucky, and a special grand jury led to the indictment of 13 Fletcher administration officials. Fletcher issued a blanket pardon for anyone in his administration (other than himself) who was or may have been involved in the scandal. Fletcher himself was later indicted by a grand jury for three misdemeanors: conspiracy, official misconduct and political discrimination. All were related to the merit-system investigation. On August 24, 2006, Fletcher reached a deal with Stumbo that led to the dismissal of the charges in exchange for Fletcher's acknowledgment that "the evidence strongly indicates wrongdoing by his administration with regard to personnel actions within the merit system. Further, the governor hereby states that these actions were inappropriate and that he regrets their occurrence and accepts responsibility for them as head of the executive branch of state government." (See Ernie Fletcher: Merit system investigation) Fletcher's approval rating as of May 11, 2007 was at 38%,[3] putting him among the lowest governors in the nation.
Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup, who had lost reelection in 2006, and Paducah businessman Billy Harper challenged Fletcher in the Republican primary. Both had supported and worked for Fletcher's 2003 campaign. Despite his troubles, Fletcher was able to fend off the primary challenge, winning just over a majority of the vote (see below).
On the Democratic side, an increasingly competitive primary campaign developed. Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford spent over five million dollars, most of it being his own money, in the campaign, and picked Stumbo as his running mate for lieutenant governor. On May 7, Kentucky State Treasurer Jonathan Miller withdrew from the race and endorsed former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear. Lunsford, Beshear, state House Speaker Jody Richards, and former Lt. Gov. Steve Henry consistently polled significantly ahead of the other candidates. Given the crowded field, many believed a runoff election was likely between the top two finishers — which polls suggested would be Beshear and Lunsford — if no candidate was able to obtain at least 40% of the vote. Beshear, however, was able to avoid a runoff with 41% (see below).
| Source | Date | Steve Beshear |
Gatewood Galbraith |
Steve Henry |
Otis Hensley |
Bruce Lunsford |
Jody Richards |
Jonathan Miller |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA | May 18–20, 2007 | 32% | 7% | 17% | 1% | 23% | 12% | N/A |
| Penn, Schoen and Berland | May 16–17, 2007 | 26% | N/A | 13% | N/A | 22% | 12% | N/A |
| GarinHartYang Research Archived 2007-09-27 at the Wayback Machine | May 14–15, 2007 | 35% | N/A | 13% | N/A | 23% | 12% | N/A |
| Survey USA | May 12–14, 2007 | 32% | 5% | 18% | 1% | 23% | 12% | N/A |
| Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll | May 10–14, 2007 | 27% | 4% | 13% | 1% | 21% | 7% | N/A |
| Survey USA | April 28–30, 2007 | 23% | 6% | 18% | 1% | 29% | 9% | 7% |
| Mellman Group | April 19–22, 2007 | 15% | N/A | 24% | N/A | 16% | 9% | 20% |
| Survey USA | March 31 – April 2, 2007 | 15% | 8% | 20% | 1% | 20% | 12% | 8% |
| Survey USA | March 3–5, 2007 | 15% | 6% | 26% | 2% | 7% | 13% | 8% |
| GarinHartYang Research | February 20–22, 2007 | 21% | N/A | 21% | N/A | 8% | 16% | 8% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Beshear | 142,838 | 41.02% | |
| Democratic | Bruce Lunsford | 74,578 | 21.42% | |
| Democratic | Steve Henry | 60,893 | 17.49% | |
| Democratic | Jody Richards | 45,433 | 13.05% | |
| Democratic | Gatewood Galbraith | 20,704 | 5.95% | |
| Democratic | Otis Hensley | 3,792 | 1.09% | |
| Total votes | 348,238 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Date | Ernie Fletcher |
Billy Harper |
Anne Northup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA | May 18–20, 2007 | 44% | 17% | 34% |
| Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll | May 10–15, 2007 | 41% | 10% | 26% |
| Survey USA | May 12–14, 2007 | 44% | 14% | 34% |
| Survey USA | April 28–30, 2007 | 46% | 14% | 34% |
| Survey USA | March 31 – April 2, 2007 | 40% | 16% | 31% |
| Survey USA | March 3–5, 2007 | 33% | 13% | 31% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[5] | January 28–29, 2007 | 39% | 10% | 39% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) | 101,328 | 50.08% | |
| Republican | Anne Northup | 73,919 | 36.53% | |
| Republican | Billy Harper | 27,092 | 13.39% | |
| Total votes | 202,339 | 100.00% | ||
| Source | Date | Steve Beshear (D) |
Ernie Fletcher (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA | November 2–4, 2007 | 59% | 39% |
| Rasmussen Reports | November 1, 2007 | 54% | 39% |
| Survey USA | October 27–29, 2007 | 60% | 36% |
| Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll | October 26–29, 2007 | 56% | 33% |
| Research 2000 | October 22–24, 2007 | 55% | 40% |
| Survey USA | October 19–21, 2007 | 58% | 38% |
| Survey USA | October 8–9, 2007 | 56% | 40% |
| Insider Advantage | September 24–25, 2007 | 45% | 35% |
| Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll | September 13–18, 2007 | 55% | 35% |
| Preston-Osborne | September 13–17, 2007 | 51% | 36% |
| Research 2000 | September 10–13, 2007 | 56% | 39% |
| Survey USA | September 8–10, 2007 | 58% | 39% |
| Survey USA | August 4–6, 2007 | 58% | 37% |
| Preston-Osborne | July 25 – August 2, 2007 | 49% | 31% |
| Survey USA | July 14–16, 2007 | 59% | 36% |
| Insider Advantage | July 8–9, 2007 | 41% | 38% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 24–25, 2007 | 51% | 35% |
| Survey USA | May 23–24, 2007 | 62% | 34% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] | Likely D (flip) | November 1, 2007 |
Fletcher conceded to Beshear at 9:00 PM on November 6.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Steve Beshear | 619,552 | 58.71% | +13.74% | |
| Republican | Ernie Fletcher (incumbent) | 435,773 | 41.29% | -13.74% | |
| Total votes | 1,055,325 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
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