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German and American economist
Tobias Adrian (born 23 July 1971) is a German and American economist who has been Financial Counsellor of the International Monetary Fund and Head of their Monetary and Capital Markets Department since 2017.[2] [3] [4] [5] He was previously employed at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York , where he was a Senior Vice President and the Associate Director of the Research and Statistics Group. His research covers aspects of risk to the wider economy of developments in capital markets . His work has covered the global financial crisis ,[6] monetary policy transmission ,[7] and the yield curve .[8]
Early life and education
[ edit ]
Adrian was born in Kronberg, West Germany and attended Humboldtschule, Bad Homburg .[2] [5] After studying at Goethe University Frankfurt , Paris Dauphine University , and the London School of Economics ,[5] he studied for a Ph.D. at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology , graduating in 2003. His doctoral thesis was entitled "Learning, dynamics of beliefs, and asset pricing".[1]
Career
[ edit ]
While working at the Federal Reserve, Adrian made substantial contributions to the role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission, with Hyun-Song Shin .[7] [9] He also documented how the inversion of the yield curve can be viewed as a causal transmission channel for monetary policy tightening, with Hyun-Song Shin and Arturo Estrella [Wikidata ] .[10] This is based on earlier work with Estrella that documented the forecasting power of the yield curve.[8] Adrian also worked on widely adopted yield curve models with Richard Crump and Emanuel Moench [Wikidata ] .[11]
Together with Markus Brunnermeier of Princeton University, Adrian created one of the first measures of systemic risk , the CoVaR. This measure, which takes into account spillover and contagion effects between asset classes and industries, was used to stress test banks following the great recession .[13]
Adrian has published extensively on the topic of market liquidity , including policy effects and its procyclical behavior.[15] [16] [17] He has also written on the importance of the shadow banking system in capital markets, and its prominent role in the development of the financial crisis of 2007–2008 .
More recently, Adrian has studied how financial conditions present asymmetric risks to GDP growth with Domenico Giannone [Wikidata ] and Nina Boyarchenko [Wikidata ] .[19] This work led to a novel model for economic forecasting, under which multimodal distributions (allowing both "good" and "bad" outcomes) arise naturally under tight financial conditions.[20] With Patrick Bolton and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis , Adrian has conducted a first empirical study of the costs and benefits of phasing out coal around the world, and documented a large net social gain on the order of trillions.[21] [22] [23] [24] Their work establishes a novel economic foundation for climate finance.[22] [23] [24] [25]
Selected works
[ edit ]
Adrian, Tobias; Shin, Hyun Song (2010). "Liquidity and leverage". Journal of Financial Intermediation . 19 (3 ). Elsevier BV: 418–437. doi :10.1016/j.jfi.2008.12.002 . ISSN 1042-9573 .
Adrian, Tobias; Ashcraft, Adam; Boesky, Hayley; Pozsar, Zoltan (2013). "Shadow Banking" . Economic Policy Review . 19 (2 ). Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Adrian, Tobias; Brunnermeier, Markus K. (June 2016). "CoVaR". American Economic Review . 106 (7 ). American Economic Association: 1705–1741. doi :10.1257/aer.20120555 . ISSN 0002-8282 .
Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (April 2019). "Vulnerable Growth". American Economic Review . 109 (4 ). American Economic Association: 1263–1289. doi :10.1257/aer.20161923 . ISSN 0002-8282 . S2CID 32943592 .
References
[ edit ]
^ "People: Tobias Adrian to replace Viñals at IMF" . Central Banking. 30 November 2016. Retrieved 16 July 2021 .
^ "Tobias Adrian sustituirá a José Viñals en el FMI" [Tobias Adrian will replace José Viñals at the IMF]. el Economista . 26 November 2016. Retrieved 17 July 2021 .
^ a b c "Dr. Tobias Adrian" . Goethe-Universität (in German). Retrieved 17 July 2021 .
^ "The Federal Reserve's Primary Dealer Credit Facility" . Federal Reserve Bank of New York . Retrieved 22 July 2021 .
^ a b Adrian, Tobias; Shin, Hyun Song (1 March 2009). "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy". American Economic Review . 99 (2 ). American Economic Association: 600–605. doi :10.1257/aer.99.2.600 . hdl :10419/60788 . ISSN 0002-8282 .
^ a b Adrian, Tobias; Estrella, Arturo (1 April 2008). "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity" . Economics Letters . 99 (2 ): 260–264. doi :10.1016/j.econlet.2007.07.007 . hdl :10419/60761 . ISSN 0165-1765 . Retrieved 22 July 2021 .
^ Adrian, Tobias; Song Shin, Hyun (1 December 2009). Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics . Handbook of Monetary Economics. Vol. 3. pp. 601–650. doi :10.1016/B978-0-444-53238-1.00012-0 . hdl :10419/60885 . ISBN 9780444534705 . ISSN 1573-4498 . Retrieved 22 July 2021 .
^ Adrian, Tobias; Estrella, Arturo; Shin, Hyun Song (23 April 2019). "Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy". Financial Management . 48 (3 ). Wiley: 725–738. doi :10.1111/fima.12256 . ISSN 0046-3892 . S2CID 158109152 .
^ Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K.; Moench, Emanuel (1 September 2013). "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions" . Journal of Financial Economics . 110 (1 ): 110–138. doi :10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.04.009 . hdl :10419/60737 . ISSN 0304-405X . Retrieved 22 July 2021 .
^ "The revolution within" . The Economist . 16 May 2009. Retrieved 2 July 2021 .
^ Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2018). "Liquidity policies and systemic risk". Journal of Financial Intermediation . 35 . Elsevier BV: 45–60. doi :10.1016/j.jfi.2017.08.005 . hdl :10419/93660 . ISSN 1042-9573 .
^ Adrian, Tobias; Kiff, John; Shin, Hyun Song (2018). "Liquidity, Leverage, and Regulation 10 Years After the Global Financial Crisis". Annual Review of Financial Economics . 10 (1 ). Annual Reviews: 1–24. doi :10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-023113 . ISSN 1941-1367 . S2CID 158419019 .
^ "Tobias Adrian" . Google Scholar . Retrieved 19 July 2021 .
^ Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (1 March 2019). "Vulnerable Growth". American Economic Review . 109 (4 ). American Economic Association: 1263–1289. doi :10.1257/aer.20161923 . ISSN 0002-8282 . S2CID 32943592 .
^ Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (22 March 2021). "Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics" (PDF) . International Economic Review . 62 (2 ). Wiley: 861–886. doi :10.1111/iere.12501 . hdl :10419/210755 . ISSN 0020-6598 . S2CID 234040176 .
^ Adrian, Tobias; Bolton, Patrick; Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa (1 June 2022). "The Great Carbon Arbitrage" . International Monetary Fund . Working Paper No. 2022/107.
^ a b IFC-IEA (21 June 2023). Scaling up Private Finance for Clean Energy in Emerging and Developing Economies (PDF) . International Energy Agency & International Finance Corporation.
^ a b Tett, Gillian (13 June 2022). "Killing coal: a new way to get investors involved" . Financial Times.
^ a b GFANZ (June 2023). "Financing the Managed Phaseout of Coal-Fired Power Plants in Asia Pacific" (PDF) . Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero . Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero.
^ Prasad, Ananthakrishnan (27 July 2022). "Mobilizing Private Climate Financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies" . IMF eLibrary .
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