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Climate change in the Caribbean

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Climate change is a worldwide issue but it poses immediate threats to the islands in the Caribbean ^[1]. The Caribbean is composed of an archipelago of islands north of South America, Southeast of North America and East of Central America. This archipelago is divided into four groups: the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles, Lucayan Archipelago, Windward Islands and Leeward Antilles. The average weather in the Caribbean is tropical and air temperatures range between the 70° to 90° F ^[2]. The environmental changes expected to affect the Caribbean are a rise in sea level, stronger hurricanes, longer dry seasons and shorter wet seasons^[3][1]. The greenhouse emissions of the Caribbean are negligible but climate change poses imminent threats to the economy, environment and life of people that live in the Caribbean ^{[4][5][6][7][8]}. The effects of climate change will be felt strongly in the Caribbean because they rely primarily on one or two sources of income, like tourism, that will be significantly affected by climate change ^[6][1]. In addition, most of the population in the Caribbean lives near the coast. For example, 50% of the population in Barbados lives near the coast ^[6][9].

Environmental changes caused by climate change in the Caribbean

Rise in sea level

Coastal communities of the Caribbean are threatened by losing their shores due to a rise in sea level because of climate change. According to NASA, the sea level is expected to increase by 1 to 4 feet by 2100 ^[3]. This suggests that coastal communities less than 10 feet above the sea will be affected by climate change. In Latin American and the Caribbean, 29-32 million people will be affected by the sea level rise because they currently live below this threshold. In the Caribbean, islands like the Bahamas and Trinidad and Tobago at least 80% of its total land is below the sea level expected to be affected by climate change ^[10][11]. Coastal loses could cost around $940 million to $1.2 billion in the 22 largest coastal cities in Latin America and the Caribbean ^[7]. Main sources of income, such as tourism, will also be affected because many of the main touristic attractions such as beaches and hotels are near the coast. In 2004, a study reported that 12 million tourists had visited Caribbean. The same study estimated that 25% to 35% of the Caribbean’s economy relies on tourism ^[10].

Increased air and sea surface temperature

An increase in air and sea surface temperature is predicted to promote the development of stronger hurricanes. Hurricanes are rotating systems that arise from the warm and tropical regions ^[12]. Key factors that lead to the development of hurricanes is the warm temperatures of the air and sea surface. The warmer the sea surface the higher the probability of the storm to become a hurricane because it provides the energy for the rotating system to intensify ^[12][13].

In September 2017, the National Hurricane center reported that the North Atlantic basin was highly active. Four tropical storms formed and they all became hurricanes. They report an higher than average record on the number of tropical storms that developed into hurricanes ^[14]. Two of these four hurricanes, Irma and Maria, hit the islands in the Caribbean. As mentioned previously, the temperature of the sea surface strengthens the tropical storm into becoming a hurricane and NASA reported that for hurricane Irma the sea surface temperature of the Caribbean was 86°F when hurricane approached the region ^[14]. The required temperature for the development of a major storm is suggested to be higher than 80° F^[13]. Once at the Caribbean, both Irma and Maria became Category 5 hurricanes ^[15].

Hurricane Irma and Maria did not only had strong winds but also carried more rainfall than previous storms. The warmer the air temperature the more water can be held by air leading to more precipitation. It has been suggested by different sources that this increase in strengthening and precipitation in recent hurricanes is due to climate change ^{[16][15] [9] [17]}. Hurricane Irma and Maria had a total of 20 inches of rainfall. In Cuba, Hurricane Irma sustained precipitation was at 10.8 inches per hour. In Puerto Rico, Hurricane Maria had a sustained precipitation for 6.44 inches per hour ^[15].

An increase in surface temperature has also been suggested to affect the corals. In 2005 at the Caribbean, a rise in the sea surface temperature is thought to have caused widespread coral bleaching. In this study, they evaluate if this increase in sea surface temperature was due to natural climate variability or human activity. They concluded that it would be very unlikely that natural climate variability alone could account for this event. Their model suggests that this event would occur once every 1000 years if human activity is not taken into consideration in the model ^[18].

Social and economic impacts of climate change in the Caribbean

The Caribbean is in a particularly difficult position to address climate change. This region generates negligible emissions of greenhouse gases but are already experiencing the effects of climate change. The long history of colonialism for the extraction of goods, such as sugar, in the Caribbean has left them dependent on colonial entities. This has created a disadvantage to the Caribbean as they lack the ability to compete with the current global economy and be self-sufficient. Centuries of colonialism has generated a “feedback loop” of dependence of the Caribbean’s economy on global powers^[4]. The damages expected from climate change will weaken the economy of the Caribbean as it will target some of the major sources of income, like tourism. A study from Reyer et al., 2017^[7] predicts the impacts that hurricanes will have per year on the economy of the Caribbean in the next century. They suggest that the Caribbean by 2100 will spend between $350 to $550 million dollars or about 11% to 17% of the current GDP for hurricane damages annually . They expect that the Bahamas, Haiti and Jamaica are the islands that will suffer the most from climate change. In addition, they suggest that agricultural and rural areas are among the sectors that will be most affected by hurricanes in the Caribbean. They estimate that damages to these areas could cost about $3 million per year by 2050 and $12-$15 million by 2100 ^[7].

References