The 2014 close approach of 2007 VK184[1]
| |
| Discovery[2] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Catalina Sky Survey (703) |
| Discovery date | 12 November 2007 |
| Designations | |
|
| |
| Orbital characteristics[1] | |
| Epoch 2022-Aug-09 (JD 2459800.5)[1] | |
| Uncertainty parameter1[1] | |
| Observation arc | 6.37 years |
| Aphelion | 2.7098 AU |
| Perihelion | 0.74286 AU |
| 1.7263 AU | |
| Eccentricity | 0.56969 |
| 828.5 d (2.27 yr) | |
Average orbital speed | 22.8 km/s[a] |
| 201.99° | |
| Inclination | 1.2208° |
| 253.57° | |
| 73.649° | |
| Earth MOID | 0.00044 AU (66,000 km) |
| Venus MOID | 0.055 AU (8,200,000 km)[3] |
| Mars MOID | 0.033 AU (4,900,000 km) |
| Physical characteristics | |
| ~130 meters (430 ft)[4] | |
| Mass | 3.3×109 kg (assumed)[4] |
| 22.0[1] | |
2007 VK184 is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, and estimated to be approximately 130 meters (430 ft) in diameter.[4] It was listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a Torino Scale rating of 1 for a potential impactor in June 2048.[4] It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 28 March 2014.[5]
The asteroid will come to opposition on 24 April 2023 when it will have a solar elongation of 177 degrees and an apparent magnitude of 22.[6] Then on 15 July 2023 the asteroid will harmlessly pass 0.2275 AU (34.03 million km) from Earth.[1]
2007 VK184 was discovered on 12 November 2007 by the Catalina Sky Survey.[2] It was recovered on 26 March 2014 by Mauna Kea,[7][3] and removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 28 March 2014.[5] By 4 January 2008, with an observation arc of 52 days, there was a 1 in 2700 chance of an impact with Earth on 3 June 2048.[8] The Sentry Risk Table, using an observation arc of 60 days, showed the asteroid had a 1 in 1820 chance (0.055%) of impacting Earth on 3 June 2048.[4] Since the March 2014 recovery, it is known that the asteroid will pass 0.013 AU (1,900,000 km; 1,200,000 mi) from Earth on 2 June 2048.[1]
Before the 2014 close approach, the asteroid had a modest observation arc of 60 days,[4] and the imprecise trajectory of this asteroid was complicated by close approaches to Earth, Venus and Mars.[1] On 23 May 2014, the asteroid passed 0.17 AU (25,000,000 km; 16,000,000 mi) from Earth[1] and reached an apparent magnitude of ~20.8.[9] As expected the close approach allowed astronomers to recover the asteroid on 26 March 2014 and refine the odds of a future collision.[3] As the asteroid gets closer to Earth, the positional uncertainty becomes larger.[10] By recovering the asteroid well before closest approach you can avoid searching a larger region of the sky.[10] Most asteroids rated 1 on the Torino Scale are later downgraded to 0 after more observations come in.
Risk assessments were calculated based on a diameter of 130 meters.[4] It was estimated that, if it were ever to impact Earth, it would enter the atmosphere at a speed of 19.2 km/s and would have a kinetic energy equivalent to 150 megatons of TNT.[4] Assuming the target surface is sedimentary rock, the asteroid would impact the ground with the equivalent of 40 megatons of TNT and create a 2.1 kilometers (1.3 mi) impact crater.[11] Asteroids of approximately 130 meters in diameter are expected to impact Earth once every 11000 years or so.[11]
On 26–27 March 2014, additional observations were made which ruled out the chance of an impact in 2048.[10] On 2 June 2048 the asteroid will pass 5 lunar distances from Earth[1] with a 3-sigma uncertainty region of ±20000 km.[12]
By the Earth approach of June 2118 the known approaches become more divergent.
| Date | Minimum possible approach |
Maximum possible approach |
|---|---|---|
| 2118-Jun-06 ± 2 days | 0.00089 AU (133 thousand km)[1][13] | 0.041 AU (6.1 million km)[1] |
|
| |
|---|---|
| Main topics |
|
| Defense |
|
| Space probes |
|
| NEO tracking |
|
| Organizations |
|
| Potential threats |
|
| Related categories |
|
|
2014 in space
| ||
|---|---|---|
2015 » | ||
Space probe launches  |
|
|
| Impact events |
| |
| Selected NEOs |
| |
| Exoplanets |
| |
| Discoveries |
| |
| Novae |
| |
| Comets |
| |
| Space exploration |
| |
| ||
