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Turnout | 63.1% [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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Congressional district results
Tuberville: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80-90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent senator Doug Jones, first elected in a 2017 special election in what was widely labeled a major upset, ran for a full term, facing Tommy Tuberville in the general election.
This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump won in 2016.[2] Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2020 due to Alabama's heavy Republican lean, with analysts predicting a Republican pickup; Jones's 2017 win was in part due to sexual misconduct allegations against his Republican opponent Roy Moore.[3]
As was predicted, Tuberville easily defeated Jones,[4][5][6][7] whose 20.36% margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent U.S. Senator since Arkansas' Blanche Lincolnin2010. Tuberville received the highest percentage of the vote for any challenger since Joseph D. Tydingsin1964. Jones became the first Democratic senator to lose reelection in Alabama, and the only Democratic senator to be defeated in 2020. He outperformed Biden in the state by about 5 points. This was the only Republican flip of the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, and as of 2024 is the last time Republicans flipped a Senate seat.
The candidate filing deadline was November 8, 2019. Jones ran unopposed.[8][9]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Stanley Adair |
Mo Brooks |
Bradley Byrne |
Del Marsh |
John Merrill |
Arnold Mooney |
Roy Moore |
Ruth Page Nelson |
Gary Palmer |
Jeff Sessions |
Tommy Tuberville |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence[A] | February 18–19, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | <1% | 5% | – | – | 29% | 32% | <1% | 15% |
WPA Intelligence Archived February 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A] | February 10–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | <1% | – | 17% | – | – | 1% | 6% | <1% | – | 34% | 29% | – | 15% |
Harper Polling Archived March 8, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[B] | February 8–9, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 3.97% | – | – | 26% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 24% | – | 14% |
Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | 31% | 29% | 2% | 16% |
OnMessage[C] | January 13–15, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 2.5% | – | – | 22% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 43% | 21% | – | – |
OnMessage[C] | December 3–5, 2019 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | – | 14% | – | – | 1% | 7% | 1% | – | 44% | 21% | – | 12% |
Cherry Communications[D] | December 1–3, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 1% | – | 12% | – | – | 1% | 8% | – | – | 35% | 31% | – | – |
December 1, 2019 | Merrill withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||||
November 8, 2019 | Filing deadline, by which Palmer had not declared his candidacy | |||||||||||||||
November 7, 2019 | Nelson and Sessions announce their candidacies | |||||||||||||||
WPA Intelligence[A] | October 29–31, 2019 | 511 (V) | ± 4.4% | – | – | 11% | – | 6% | 2% | 11% | – | – | 36% | 23% | – | – |
Cygnal | October 10–12, 2019 | 536 (LV) | – | 1% | – | 18% | – | 9% | 2% | 11% | – | – | – | 32% | – | 28% |
Tommy for Senate[E] | Released on October 5, 2019 |
– (LV)[b] | – | 1% | – | 13% | – | 9% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 36% | – | 26% |
Moore Information[F] | August 11–13, 2019 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | – | 17% | – | 13% | 1% | 15% | – | – | – | 33% | 3% | 17% |
June 25, 2019 | Merrill announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||||
Cygnal | June 22–23, 2019 | 612 (LV) | 4.0% | – | – | 21% | – | 12% | 2% | 13% | – | – | – | 29% | – | 22% |
– | – | 13% | – | 8% | – | 9% | – | – | 29% | 21% | – | – | ||||
June 20, 2019 | Moore announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||||
Moore Information[F] | June 10–11, 2019 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | – | 16% | – | 7% | 2% | 18% | – | – | – | 23% | 6% | 28% |
May 3, 2019 | Brooks announces he will not run | |||||||||||||||
April 22, 2019 | Marsh announces he will not run | |||||||||||||||
Mason-Dixon | April 9–11, 2019 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | – | 18% | 13% | 4% | – | – | 27% | – | 11% | – | – | 2%[c] | 25% |
Victory Phones[G] | Released in February 2019 |
400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 30% | 17% | 7% | – | – | – | – | 12% | – | – | 6% | 27% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 239,616 | 33.39% | |
Republican | Jeff Sessions | 227,088 | 31.64% | |
Republican | Bradley Byrne | 178,627 | 24.89% | |
Republican | Roy Moore | 51,377 | 7.16% | |
Republican | Ruth Page Nelson | 7,200 | 1.00% | |
Republican | Arnold Mooney | 7,149 | 1.00% | |
Republican | Stanley Adair | 6,608 | 0.92% | |
Total votes | 717,665 | 100.00% |
The runoff for the Republican Senate nomination was planned for March 31, 2020,[64] but it was delayed until July 14 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.[65]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jeff Sessions |
Tommy Tuberville |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Auburn University at Montgomery Archived July 10, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | July 2–9, 2020 | 558 (RV) | ± 6% | 31% | 47% | 22%[d] |
OnMessage (R)[C] | May 26–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 43% | 49% | 8%[e] |
FM3 Research (D)[H] | May 14–18, 2020 | – (LV)[b] | – | 32% | 54% | 14%[f] |
Cygnal | May 7–10, 2020 | 607 (LV) | ± 3.98% | 32% | 55% | 13% |
FM3 Research (D)[H] | March, 2020 | – (LV)[b] | – | 36% | 54% | 10%[g] |
OnMessage (R)[C] | March 8–9, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
Cygnal | March 6–8, 2020 | 645 (LV) | + 3.86% | 40% | 52% | 8% |
Moore Information Group[permanent dead link][F] | March 5–7, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5% | 38% | 49% | 13% |
WT&S Consulting Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | March 5, 2020 | 1,234 (LV) | + 3.29% | 42% | 49% | 8%[e] |
Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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|
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 334,675 | 60.73% | |
Republican | Jeff Sessions | 216,452 | 39.27% | |
Total votes | 551,127 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[70] | Lean R (flip) | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[71] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] | Likely R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[73] | Likely R (flip) | October 30, 2020 |
Politico[74] | Lean R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[75] | Likely R (flip) | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[76] | Safe R (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
538[77] | Likely R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[78] | Safe R (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
|
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Tommy Tuberville (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 294 (LV) | ± 8.5% | 42% | 58% | – | – |
Data for Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 1,045 (LV) | ± 3% | 44% | 56% | 0%[h] | – |
Morning Consult | October 22–31, 2020 | 850 (LV) | ± 3% | 39% | 51% | – | – |
Auburn University At Montgomery | October 23–28, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 54% | 3% | – |
Swayable | October 23–26, 2020 | 232 (LV) | ± 8.7% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
Cygnal | October 21–23, 2020 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 55% | – | 4% |
Moore Information (R)[F] | October 11–14, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 55% | – | – |
FM3 Research (D) Archived October 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[H] | October 11–14, 2020 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | – | 5%[i] |
Auburn University at Montgomery Archived November 9, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | September 30 – October 3, 2020 | 1,072 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 54% | 4% | – |
Morning Consult | September 11–20, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 34% | 52% | – | – |
Morning Consult | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 609 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 52% | 4%[j] | 9% |
Auburn University at Montgomery Archived July 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 36% | 44% | 7%[k] | 14% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[K] | June 29 – July 2, 2020 | 509 (LV)[l] | ± 3.8% | 40% | 50% | – | – |
ALG Research (D) | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 8% |
Cygnal (R) | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 50% | 2%[m] | 13% |
FM3 Research (D)[H] | May 14–18, 2020 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Jeff Sessions (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Auburn University at Montgomery Archived July 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | July 2–9, 2020 | 567 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 49% | 7%[n] | 1% |
ALG Research (D) | June 18–22, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 45% | 3% | 9% |
Cygnal (R) | June 13–16, 2020 | 530 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 35% | 45% | 3%[o] | 18% |
Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 54% | – | 5% |
JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Bradley Byrne (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon | February 4–6, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 51% | 7% |
JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Arnold Mooney (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 34% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Roy Moore (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 33% | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon | Apr 9–11, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 50% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Doug Jones (D) |
Generic Opponent |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics | December 16–18, 2019 | 525 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | 48%[L] | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal | October 21–23, 2020 | 645 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 38% | 55% | 6% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tommy Tuberville | 1,392,076 | 60.10% | +11.76% | |
Democratic | Doug Jones (incumbent) | 920,478 | 39.74% | −10.23% | |
Write-in | 3,891 | 0.17% | −1.06% | ||
Total votes | 2,316,445 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican gain from Democratic |
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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The result was a landslide victory for Tuberville. Tuberville's 20-point margin of victory is largely attributed to the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot, and Jones' votes against Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, as well as his vote to convict Donald Trump in his first impeachment trial. Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator in 2020, and his victory in 2017 was largely attributed to allegations of child molestation against his opponent. While Jones was able to receive more raw votes than he did in 2017, Tuberville received nearly double the number of votes Roy Moore did in 2017, largely due to the high Republican turnout. Jones did perform well in Jefferson County and Montgomery County, but still vastly underperformed his margins in 2017, while Tuberville easily won the rural areas, and successfully flipped many counties that went to Jones by significant margins.
In the 2017 election, Jones won several traditionally Republican counties while also driving up margins and turnout in traditionally Democratic counties: he added onto massive margins in Birmingham and Montgomery with narrow wins in the state's other, previously more conservative metropolitan areas, such as Huntsville, Mobile, and Tuscaloosa, alongside several other small counties encircling the Black Belt.[92] Jones' win, though attributable to a spike in Democratic turnout and a decline in Republican turnout, was primarily reliant on sexual misconduct allegations against Moore, resulting in several prominent Republicans rescinding their endorsements.[93][94][95] With Tuberville lacking such controversies, the state swung hard into the Republican column in 2020,[96] and he flipped 12 counties Jones won in 2017. Jones only won the 13 counties won by Joe Biden in the concurrent 2020 presidential election, and his victories in Jefferson County (Birmingham) and Montgomery County (Montgomery) were insufficient to overcome Tuberville's performance in the rest of the state.
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) shut the door on a potential Senate bid Friday morning in a local radio interview. "I will not be running for the U.S. Senate in 2020," Brooks said on WZRR-FM in Birmingham.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
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