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The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
byAnonymous Coward writes:
Well done Donnie.
byRoccamOccam ( 953524 ) writes:
Yeah, China halts exports to Germany and Japan and it's Trump's fault. TDS.
Makes one realize that Trump is right to wean us off so much dependency on China.
byskam240 ( 789197 ) writes:
Notice the part about "special licenses"?
This is likely all being done to stop us here in the US from getting rare earth minerals, not the entire world. Once they have their licensing program running they'll likely start exporting again to everyone but us with the threat of a revocation of a country's license if anyone resells to us. The temporary halt is probably just to stop us from stockpiling them while they get the licensing program up and running.
China's actions so far in this trade war have, unlike our own, been very predictable. Given they have no motivation for keeping a ban on the rest of the world in place it seems incredibly unlikely they will.
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byrkit ( 538398 ) writes:
Very plausible Szenario.
byPieroxy ( 222434 ) writes:
China's actions so far in this trade war have, unlike our own, been very predictable
And pragmatic. They don't bow to the orange clown like so many other countries. They hold their ground.
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byddtmm ( 549094 ) writes:
They have to halt exports to all countries because the US will simply proxy their purchases from other countries. How do you think Russia is sustaining? Or Iran, or any other country the US alienates?
The only solution is to get rid of Trump. Sooner or later the US will figure that out.
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byskam240 ( 789197 ) writes:
They have to halt exports to all countries because the US will simply proxy their purchases from other countries
Yes, I said this. Also, as I said, they will likely open back up to other countries again once the licensing program gets going. Otherwise, why make a licensing program? None of our allies will want to resell to us in any meaningful amount and risk losing their license, especially after Trump's recent actions towards them.
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byangel'o'sphere ( 80593 ) writes:
The allies won't sell: because they can not "afford" the tariffs.
Imagine we buy over priced Yttrium from China, which makes us nearly broke.
Then someone has to pay 175% import tariffs in USA.
25% because everything from Europe is taxed.
100% because it origins from China.
50% punishment for the European company daring to trade with China.
And who is paying all this? The customers in USA of course. Or is anyone is so bad in math, that he thinks one is shipping goods from China via E
byRockDoctor ( 15477 ) writes:
How do you think Russia is sustaining? Or Iran, or any other country the US alienates?
To a first approximation, every pair of hands a product goes through doubles it price. ("first approximation"; "rule of thumb" ; YMMV), which would mean steep increases in the costs to any manufacturer "re-shoring" into the USA.
Not that they were going to do more than the absolute minimum of that. Any of them. It's not worth it for around 15% of trade.
byskam240 ( 789197 ) writes:
You seem to be suggesting that the type of sanctions we've implemented against Russia are supposed to keep 100% of all of the sanctioned items out of a country when anybody implementing them knows this isnt possible. The actual point of sanctions like we put on Russia and what China is going to do to us with rare earth metals is to make these items both scarce and expensive thus harming the economy of the targeted country. As we've seen with our own sanctions against Russia, this works.
byangel'o'sphere ( 80593 ) writes:
With your name, I had guessed you easily guess, that all this is just a gigantic insider scam 101 operation.
bydrinkypoo ( 153816 ) writes:
"How do you think Russia is sustaining?"
China.
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byplate_o_shrimp ( 948271 ) writes:
Given they have no motivation for keeping a ban on the rest of the world in place it seems incredibly unlikely they will.
Well, halting shipments to other countries who want the rare earth metals will help turn those countries against us (as if help were needed). Kind of grade-school strategy but when you've got a toddler in charge you have to meet him at his level
bysarren1901 ( 5415506 ) writes:
That's a funny way to misdirect. China could of just cut the USA off and left the rest of the world alone. Instead, they have cut the entire world off. Seems an odd choice to me.
byDaFallus ( 805248 ) writes:
Read the GP of the comment you replied to. It makes a lot of sense.
bysarren1901 ( 5415506 ) writes:
We'll have to disagree on this. China has no reason to block the rest of the world when the issue is between USA and China. That's just China posturing to the rest of the world when they could of just been the good guys (lol, no sides are good).
You block the USA and you tell everyone the new rules. They could of got their little "special registrations" system setup, cut the USA off and made the rest of the world sign a new agreement, all without cutting off the rest of the world.
Trump doing something is on
bysuutar ( 1860506 ) writes:
I think you're underestimating the time and effort to set up "their little "special registrations" system", and until it's up and running, any export can reach the US.
bysarren1901 ( 5415506 ) writes:
There are only 195 countries in the world. How hard can this system possibly be to create? It doesn't even have to tie into anything if China is keeping things as is except for USA and the extra" don't straw purchase for USA" agreement they will insist their trade partners sign.
I think Xi is already visiting different south Asian countries presently or has people doing that for him. I read about that. So clearly, we live in interesting times.
I'd much rather have a trade war and hopefully we can avoid a hot
bysarren1901 ( 5415506 ) writes:
China's actions are on China. How they respond to Trump is on them. Trump doesn't make anyone "do" anything. China had a choice here. They choose to cut off the world instead of setting up their system and then cutting off the USA.
This is a flex by China to the whole world when they didn't need to. As others have said, USA is doing a perfectly good job alienating everyone already, why would China not just let that continue on?
byMachineShedFred ( 621896 ) writes:
Oh, that's exactly what's happening.
Trump is a fucking idiot running around with a baseball bat. Other countries are actually listening to advisors that understand modern economics and know exactly where to punch to inflict the most damage in the shortest amount of time. And the answer there, is rare earths, and US Treasuries.
Oh look, treasury yields are spiking again...
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byskam240 ( 789197 ) writes:
Other countries are actually listening to advisors that understand modern economics and know exactly where to punch to inflict the most damage in the shortest amount of time. And the answer there, is rare earths, and US Treasuries.
This is exactly the type of governance one gets when one gets rid of all the experts and replaces them with loyalists (or just ignores the experts that are left). We've already seen this happen in other countries so just like with the trade war, China's actions, and the rest, this level of governmental incompetence was completely predictable.
Project 2025's politicizing of the bureaucracy was always going to lead to this.
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byGilgaron ( 575091 ) writes:
Obviously the P25 stuff would get us here, and was supposed to be fast, but I guess I'm still kinda impressed at the speed at which they've shit their own pants.
byKGIII ( 973947 ) writes:
I know this sounds bad, but I've run out of empathy. I've tried to keep that trait and it still exists elsewhere.
America is getting what they voted for.
(Obviously, I did not vote for Trump.)
Me? I'm going to be fine. If any of my family struggles, we'll make sure they are also going to be okay. We'll take care of our own.
It's not really a case of 'fuck you, I've got mine' so much as it is, 'well, this sucks so I may need to take care of my family'. It was a bit of a fluke that Trump was elected the first tim
byDamnOregonian ( 963763 ) writes:
Trump is a fucking idiot running around with a baseball bat.
Pretty good analogy.
Other countries are actually listening to advisors that understand modern economics and know exactly where to punch to inflict the most damage in the shortest amount of time. And the answer there, is rare earths, and US Treasuries.
Rare earths are a double edged sword.
There's no shortage of rare earths- merely a shortage of those willing to extract them (or more specifically, governments willing to let people extract them on their land)
That's a dependency knob you want to tweak a little bit, but not sever. Severing it would be a mistake.
Oh look, treasury yields are spiking again...
This kind of belies your notion of understanding of modern economics.
Economists have been claiming for ages that China dumping every treasury bond it has would have no long-term
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