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{{Short description|Term used to describe a distortion of Ireland's GDP by Apple Inc restructuring}}
{{Use dmy dates|date=January 2015}}
{{Use Hiberno-English|date=December 2021}}
[[File:Paul Krugman-press conference Dec 07th, 2008-2.jpg|thumb|Nobel Prize-winning American economist [[Paul Krugman]], whose tweet on 12 July 2016 used the term, Leprechaun Economics.<ref name=Reuters/><ref name="bbgquint"/>]]
[[File:Ireland Trade Good Discrepancy (1995-2017).png|thumb|Leprechaun economics: Apple's Q1 2015 USD 300 billion [[tax inversion]] of its non–U.S. business, was the largest ever [[BEPS]] action, and double the blocked 2016 USD 160 billion [[Pfizer]]–[[Allergan]] [[corporate inversion|inversion]]<ref name="cofr"/>]]
{{taxation}}

'''Leprechaun economics''' was a term coined by economist [[Paul Krugman]] to describe the 26.3 per cent rise in Irish 2015 [[Gross domestic product|GDP]], later revised to 34.4 per cent,{{efn|name=upgrade|The Central Statistics Office (Ireland) further restated Irish 2015 data several times in 2017–18; by September 2018, Irish 2015 GDP was a further 6.4% above the 12 July 2016 restatement, as listed in [[Modified gross national income#Irish GDP versus Modified GNI (2009–2017)|Irish GDP versus Modified GNI (2009–2017)]]. This was the highest post-[[World War II]] annual GDP apparent growth of an OECD country.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg|title=The World Bank Database: Real GDP Data|publisher=[[The World Bank]]|date=2018|access-date=30 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180830210157/https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg|archive-date=30 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>}} in a 12 July 2016 publication by the [[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)|Irish Central Statistics Office]] (CSO), restating 2015 Irish national accounts.<ref name="CSO1"/><ref name=X1/><ref name=X2/><ref name=X3/> At that point, the distortion of Irish economic data by tax-driven accounting flows reached a climax.<ref name=Reuters/><ref name="bbgquint"/><ref name="Financial Times"/> In 2020, Krugman said the term was a feature of all [[tax havens]].<ref name=NYT7/>

While the event that caused the artificial Irish GDP growth occurred in Q1 2015, the Irish CSO had to delay its GDP revision and redact the release of its regular economic data in 2016–2017 to protect the source's identity, as required by Irish law.<ref name="csoo"/> Only in Q1 2018 could economists confirm [[Apple Inc.|Apple]] as the source, <ref name="co1"/><ref name="patrick.smyth"/><ref name=IT9/> and that this was the largest ever [[base erosion and profit shifting]] (BEPS) action,<ref name=FORTUNE/> and the largest hybrid–[[tax inversion]] of a U.S. corporation.<ref name="cofr"/><ref name=IT10/>

The event marked the replacement of Ireland's prohibited BEPS tool, the [[Double Irish]], with the more powerful [[Double Irish arrangement#CAIA|Capital Allowances for Intangible Assets]] (CAIA) tool.<ref name="patrick.smyth"/><ref name=IT9/> Apple used the CAIA tool to restructure out of its hybrid–Double Irish tool, on which the [[EU illegal State aid case against Apple in Ireland|EU Commission would levy a €13 billion fine in August 2016]].{{efn|name=findings|From a 9 January 2015 meeting with the EU Commission which was documented when the EU Commission published their full decision (S.A 38373), page 42 section 2.5.7 ''Apple's new corporate structure in Ireland as of 2015''.<ref name="eu1"/>}}<ref name="patrick.smyth"/><ref name=IT9/> As a result of the action by Apple, a range of academics calculated that Ireland, already held by some to be a major tax haven, was the world's largest tax haven.<ref name="gbz"/><ref name="zuc10"/><ref name="zux"/><ref name="WPaidan.regan"/>

The "Leprechaun economics" incident had follow-on effects. In September 2016, Ireland became the first of the major tax havens to be "blacklisted" by a [[G20]] economy, Brazil.<ref name=BRAZ/> In February 2017, Ireland replaced GDP with "[[Modified gross national income|Modified GNI (or GNI*)]]" (2017 Irish GDP was [[Modified gross national income#Irish GDP versus Modified GNI (2009–2017)|162%]] of 2017 Irish GNI*, whereas EU–28 2017 GDP was 100% of GNI).<ref name=RTÉ5/><ref name="eurostat2">{{cite web|url=https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/-/sdg_08_10|title=Real GDP per capita|publisher=[[Eurostat]]|access-date=26 November 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181126221404/https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-datasets/-/sdg_08_10|archive-date=26 November 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> In December 2017, the U.S and the EU introduced countermeasures to the Irish BEPS tools.<ref name=R1/><ref name=R2/><ref name=R3/> In October 2018, Ireland introduced a reverse tax, to discourage IP from leaving Ireland.<ref name="reverse"/> In 2018, the [[OECD]] showed that Ireland's public debt metrics differ dramatically depending on whether Debt-to-GDP, Debt-to-GNI* or Debt-per-Capita is used;<ref name="oecd"/><ref name="it1"/><ref name="irip"/> and in 2019, the [[IMF]] estimated 60 per cent of Irish [[foreign direct investment]] was "phantom".<ref name=IMF4/><ref name=CLIFF4/><ref name=IMF5/>

==Naming and use==
===2015 GDP data===
On the 12 July 2016, at 11am GMT, the [[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)|Central Statistics Office]] posted a data revision showing that 2015 Irish GDP data rose by 26.3 per cent{{efn|name=upgrade}} and 2015 Irish GNP rose by 18.7 per cent.<ref name="CSO1">{{cite web|url=http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/nie/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults2015/|title=National Income and Expenditure Annual Results 2015|author=CSO Statistical Release|publisher=[[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)]]|date=12 July 2016|access-date=19 January 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171122004553/http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/nie/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults2015/|archive-date=22 November 2017|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> Twenty four minutes later, at 11.24am GMT, [[Nobel Prize]]-winning economist [[Paul Krugman]] responded to the data release by posting:

{{quote|Leprechaun economics: Ireland reports 26 percent growth! But it doesn't make sense. Why are these in GDP?|author=[[Paul Krugman]], 12 July 2016<ref name="pk">{{cite tweet|user=paulkrugman|number=752841032870551552|last=Krugman|first=Paul|author-link=Paul Krugman|date=12 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|title=Leprechaun economics: Ireland reports 26 percent growth! But it doesn't make sense. Why are these in GDP?|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180616095311/https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/752841032870551552|archive-date=16 June 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>}}

Over the 12 to 13 July 2016, the term ''leprechaun economics'' was used widely by the Irish and international media when discussing Ireland's revised 26.3% 2015 GDP growth rate.<ref name=X1>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-irelands-26pc-growth-spurt-laughed-off-as-farcical-34879232.html|title='Leprechaun economics' - Ireland's 26pc growth spurt laughed off as 'farcical'|newspaper=[[Irish Independent]]|date=13 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|author=Colm Kelpie|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180614021337/https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-irelands-26pc-growth-spurt-laughed-off-as-farcical-34879232.html|archive-date=14 June 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name=X2>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/concern-as-irish-growth-rate-dubbed-leprechaun-economics-1.2719676?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fconcern-as-irish-growth-rate-dubbed-leprechaun-economics-1.2719676|title=Concern as Irish growth rate dubbed 'leprechaun economics'|newspaper=[[Irish Times]]|date=13 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|author1=Eoin Burke Kennedy|author2=Ciarán Hancock|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319213828/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/concern-as-irish-growth-rate-dubbed-leprechaun-economics-1.2719676?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fconcern-as-irish-growth-rate-dubbed-leprechaun-economics-1.2719676|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name=X3>{{cite web|url=https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0723/804214-blog-story-behind-leprechaun-economics-fiasco/|title=Blog: The real story behind Ireland's 'Leprechaun' economics fiasco|publisher=[[RTÉ News]]|date=25 July 2017|access-date=29 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180320043640/https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0723/804214-blog-story-behind-leprechaun-economics-fiasco/|archive-date=20 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="Financial Times">{{cite news|url=https://www.ft.com/content/8a1ebc9c-4846-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab|title=Irish tell a tale of 26.3% growth spurt|newspaper=[[Financial Times]]|date=12 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|quote=Rate attributed to multinational inversions — or "leprechaun economics"|author=Vincent Boland|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319213733/https://www.ft.com/content/8a1ebc9c-4846-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.thejournal.ie/gdp-growth-leprechaun-economics-2876138-Jul2016/|title="Leprechaun economics" - experts aren't impressed with Ireland's GDP figures|newspaper=[[TheJournal.ie]]|date=13 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|author=Paul Hosford|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180413234859/http://www.thejournal.ie/gdp-growth-leprechaun-economics-2876138-Jul2016/|archive-date=13 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name=Reuters>{{cite web|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-economy/leprechaun-economics-leaves-irish-growth-story-in-limbo-idUSKCN0ZT21K|title='Leprechaun economics' leaves Irish growth story in limbo|publisher=[[Reuters News]]|author=Padraic Halpin|date=13 July 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180330012532/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-economy/leprechaun-economics-leaves-irish-growth-story-in-limbo-idUSKCN0ZT21K|archive-date=30 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="bbgquint"/> ''Leprechaun economics'' became a label for the Irish 2015 GDP 26.3% growth rate, and has been as such by a diverse range of sources.<ref name="lancet">{{cite journal|url=https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(18)30461-6.pdf|title=Putting Ireland's health spending into perspective|journal=[[The Lancet]]|date=March 2018|volume=391|issue=10123|pages=833–834|quote=Similarly, health spending as a percentage of GDP declined sharply in 2015, despite an increase in health spending, as Irish GDP increased by 26% (a figure that spawned the phrase leprechaun economics)|doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(18)30461-6|pmid=29508738|last1=Turner|first1=B.|s2cid=3741394|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/everything-you-need-to-know-about-ireland-s-economy/ | title= Everything you need to know about Ireland's economy | author=Douglas Broom | website=[[World Economic Forum]] | date=19 March 2019 | access-date=30 January 2020 | quote='Leprechaun economics'}}</ref> In December 2019, the ''[[Irish Times]]'' named "Leprechaun Economics" as one of its "Top 10 business stories of the decade".<ref name=IT10>{{cite news | url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/top-10-business-stories-of-the-decade-1.4119566 | title=Top 10 business stories of the decade | author=Eoin Burke-Kennedy | date=27 December 2019 | access-date=28 January 2020 | newspaper=[[Irish Times]]}}</ref>

===Irish economy===
Since July 2016, ''leprechaun economics'' has become used by economists in relation to caveats and concerns regarding Irish economic data.<ref>{{cite journal|title=Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics? The Politics of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe|author1=Aidan Regan|author2=Samual Brazys|journal=[[New Political Economy (journal)|New Political Economy]]|volume=23|issue=2|pages=223–238|date=6 September 2017|doi=10.1080/13563467.2017.1370447|s2cid=157109256|url=http://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201701.pdf}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.imi.ie/multinationals-smoke-mirrors-obscure-strong-indigenous-performance|title=Multinationals' smoke and mirrors obscure our strong indigenous performance|publisher=[[Irish Management Institute]]|quote=The bulk of that decline occurred in 2015 when MFP in the FDI sector dropped by a leprechaun-like 57.2%.|author=Cormac Lucey|date=13 August 2018|access-date=25 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180825180038/http://www.imi.ie/multinationals-smoke-mirrors-obscure-strong-indigenous-performance|archive-date=25 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.axios.com/europe-moves-on-from-financial-crisis-but-greece-is-still-recovering-bailout--5bd436da-b8fd-4b45-acf6-d0c003b92960.html|title=Europe moves on from financial crisis, but Greece is still recovering|quote=Its skyrocketing GDP is heavily skewed by "leprechaun economics," a term used to describe the tax inversion practices of corporations like Apple that base subsidiaries in Ireland.|publisher=[[Axios (website)|Axios]]|author=Zachary Basu|date=15 August 2018|access-date=25 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180930072609/https://www.axios.com/europe-moves-on-from-financial-crisis-but-greece-is-still-recovering-bailout--5bd436da-b8fd-4b45-acf6-d0c003b92960.html|archive-date=30 September 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Does the CSO have another leprechaun on the loose?|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/does-the-cso-have-another-leprechaun-on-the-loose-1.3564334|date=14 July 2018|newspaper=Irish Times|author=Cantillon}}</ref>

{{quote|Nobody believes our GDP numbers any more, not after a 26 per cent jump in 2015, which was famously derided as "leprechaun economics". Even the CSO cautions against viewing last year's [2017] 7.8 per cent jump as a reflection of real economic activity|author=[[The Irish Times]]|source=17 March 2018<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/give-me-a-crash-course-in-irish-economic-growth-1.3429505?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fgive-me-a-crash-course-in-irish-economic-growth-1.3429505|title=Give me a crash course in .... Irish economic growth|newspaper=[[The Irish Times]]|author=Eoin Burke-Kennedy|date=17 March 2018|quote=Nobody believes our GDP numbers any more, not after a 26 per cent jump in 2015, which was famously derided as "leprechaun economics". Even the CSO cautions against viewing last year's [2017] 7.8 per cent jump as a reflection of real economic activity|access-date=25 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180825181754/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/give-me-a-crash-course-in-irish-economic-growth-1.3429505?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fgive-me-a-crash-course-in-irish-economic-growth-1.3429505|archive-date=25 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>}}

In March 2018, the first paper was published in an established international economic journal - in this case, the ''[[New Political Economy (journal)|New Political Economy]]'' - with ''leprechaun economics'' in its title: "Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics? The Politics of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe".<ref>{{cite journal|title=Celtic Phoenix or Leprechaun Economics? The Politics of an FDI-led Growth Model in Europe|date=March 2018|author1=Aidan Regan|author2=Samuel Brazys|volume=23|issue=2|pages=223–238|journal=[[New Political Economy (journal)|New Political Economy]]|doi=10.1080/13563467.2017.1370447|s2cid=157109256|url=http://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201701.pdf}}</ref> By September 2018, the term ''leprechaun economics'' had been used 83 times during debates in the Irish [[Dáil Éireann]].<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/find/|title=Dail Eireann Oireachtas Debates: Search|access-date=26 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826052922/https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/debates/find/|archive-date=26 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

In September 2019, former Northern Ireland minister [[Nelson McCausland]], criticised Ireland's reliance on tax-driven schemes for economic growth, which he referred to as ''Leprechaun economics'', in an opinion piece for ''[[The Belfast Telegraph]]'' titled: "Northern Ireland will prosper once it’s rid of the EU... not by being tied to 'economics of the leprechaun'".<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/columnists/nelson-mccausland/nelson-mccausland-northern-ireland-will-prosper-once-its-rid-of-the-eu-not-by-being-tied-to-economics-of-the-leprechaun-38490365.html | author=Nelson McCausland | newspaper=[[The Belfast Telegraph]] | date=12 September 2019 | access-date=30 January 2020 | title=Nelson McCausland: Northern Ireland will prosper once it's rid of the EU... not by being tied to 'economics of the leprechaun'| author-link=Nelson McCausland }}</ref>

===Wider use===
Since July 2016, ''leprechaun economics'' has also been used many times (including by Krugman himself), to refer to distorted or unsound economic data outside Ireland, including by:

{{ordered list|type=lower-roman

| Krugman, in relation to the effects of the US [[Tax Cuts and Jobs Act]]<ref>{{cite news|url=https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/leprechaun-economics-and-neo-lafferism/|title=Leprechaun Economics and Neo-Lafferism|newspaper=New York Times|date=8 November 2017|author=Paul Krugman|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180430234132/https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/11/08/leprechaun-economics-and-neo-lafferism/|archive-date=30 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author-link=Paul Krugman}}</ref>
| Krugman, in relation to national statistics from some Eastern European Countries<ref>{{cite news|url=https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/12/04/leprechauns-of-eastern-europe/|title=Leprechauns of Eastern Europe|newspaper=New York Times|date=4 December 2017|author=Paul Krugman|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180213135733/https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/12/04/leprechauns-of-eastern-europe/|archive-date=13 February 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author-link=Paul Krugman}}</ref>
| ''[[Irish Times]]'', in relation to Irish house building completion statistics<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housing-data-reveals-return-of-leprechaun-economics-1.3056546?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fhousing-data-reveals-return-of-leprechaun-economics-1.3056546|title=Housing data reveals return of 'leprechaun economics'|newspaper=Irish Times|author=Dermot O'Leary|date=21 April 2017|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180320043650/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housing-data-reveals-return-of-leprechaun-economics-1.3056546?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fhousing-data-reveals-return-of-leprechaun-economics-1.3056546|archive-date=20 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>
| [[Bloomberg News|Bloomberg]], in relation to US economic data and in particular, US trade deficit figures<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-19/the-u-s-has-a-leprechaun-economy-effect-too|title=The U.S. Has a 'Leprechaun Economy' Effect, Too|publisher=Bloomberg|author=Leonid Bershidsky|date=19 July 2017|access-date=20 April 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180421094509/https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-19/the-u-s-has-a-leprechaun-economy-effect-too|archive-date=21 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>
| U.S. [[Council on Foreign Relations]], in relation to the increasing distortion of EU–28 economic data by Ireland and the Netherlands<ref name="brad"/><ref name=brad5>{{cite web | url=https://www.cfr.org/blog/leprechaun-adjusted-euro-area-gdp | title=Leprechaun Adjusted Euro Area GDP | author=Brad W. Setser | date=20 January 2020 | access-date=28 January 2020 | website=[[Council on Foreign Relations]]| author-link=Brad W. Setser }}</ref>
}}

In January 2020, Krugman noted in the ''[[New York Times]]'' the more general application of the term, saying: "Now, I've coined a few economic phrases I'm proud of: "leprechaun economics" for the distortion of statistics caused by multinational corporations in search of tax havens, ...";<ref name=NYT7>{{cite news | url=https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/PK_sample.html | title=Opinion | author=Paul Krugman | newspaper=[[New York Times]] | date=28 January 2020 | access-date=28 January 2020 | quote=Now, I've coined a few economic phrases I'm proud of: "leprechaun economics" for the distortion of statistics caused by multinational corporations in search of tax havens, .. [.]| author-link=Paul Krugman }}</ref> and followed with tweet saying: "You know what's really gratifying as a commentator? When a phrase you coined (leprechaun economics) is widely used without attribution. No, really — it means you've changed the discourse".<ref>{{cite tweet | user=paulkrugman | number=1220320803885080577 | last=Krugman | first=Paul | date=23 January 2020 | access-date=28 January 2020 | title=You know what's really gratifying as a commentator? When a phrase you coined (leprechaun economics) is widely used without attribution. No, really — it means you've changed the discourse. Also, the Irish thought it was funny | author-link=Paul Krugman }}</ref>

===Controversy===
In June 2021, the Irish Ambassador to the US, [[Daniel Mulhall]], wrote a letter to the ''New York Times'' saying, "This is not the first time your columnist has used the word 'leprechaun' when referring to Ireland, and I see it as my duty to point out that this represents an unacceptable slur."<ref>{{cite web| url=https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0612/1227743-columnist-leprechaun-us-ireland/ | author=Brian O'Donovan | author-link=Brian O'Donovan | title=NYT columnist's 'leprechaun' reference criticised | website=[[RTÉ News]] | date=12 June 2021 | publisher=Raidió Teilifís Éireann | access-date=12 June 2021}}</ref>

==Obfuscation of source (2016)==
===Statistics Act===
[[File:Michael Noonan (crop).jpg|thumb|In July 2016, Irish Finance Minister [[Michael Noonan (Fine Gael politician)|Michael Noonan]] attributed "leprechaun economics" to a range of multinationals restructuring pre the closure of the [[Double Irish]] BEPS tool, and aircraft leasing transactions.{{efn|name="aircraft"}}]]

Despite the scale of the revision to 2015 Irish GDP,<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0712/801870-cso-on-economy/|title=Economy grew by 'dramatic' 26% last year after considerable asset reclassification|publisher=RTÉ News|date=12 July 2016|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319213959/https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2016/0712/801870-cso-on-economy/|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> the Irish [[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)|Central Statistics Office]] issued a short one-page note on 12 July 2016 explaining that it was as a result of an ''annual benchmarking exercise''. The office also stated that: "As a consequence of the overall scale of these additions, elements of the results that would previously been published are now suppressed to protect the confidentiality of the contributing companies, in accordance with the Statistics Act 1993."<ref name="csoo">{{cite web|url=http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/newsevents/documents/pr_GDPexplanatorynote.pdf|title=CSO Press Release|publisher=[[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)]]|quote=As a consequence of the overall scale of these additions, elements of the results that would previously been published are now suppressed to protect the confidentiality of the contributing companies, in accordance with the Statistics Act 1993|date=12 July 2016|access-date=20 March 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171122183804/http://cso.ie/en/media/csoie/newsevents/documents/pr_GDPexplanatorynote.pdf|archive-date=22 November 2017|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

On the 12 July 2016, the Irish State attributed the 2015 growth revision to a combination of factors, including aircraft purchases (Ireland is a hub for aircraft securitisation),{{efn|name="aircraft"|In May 2019, the ''[[Irish Independent]]'' would report figures from the Department of Finance showing that since 2012, the net assets (e.g. a figure which would contribute to Irish GDP) of the aircraft leasing industry in Ireland was close to zero. They also reported that the revenues of aircraft leasing in Ireland only increased by €2.4 billion in 2015 (also a figure which would contribute to Irish GDP), versus the €67.4 billion increase from Leprechaun economics.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aircraftleasing-industry-paid-54m-in-corporation-tax-in-2018-38138806.html|title=Aircraft-leasing industry paid €54m in corporation tax in 2018|author=Gordon Deegan|newspaper=[[Irish Independent]]|date=23 May 2019|access-date=23 May 2019|quote=During the same period, the assets of the companies concerned increased from €65.8bn in 2012 to €141.6bn in 2016 while the industry's liabilities increased from €60.6bn in 2012 to €141.1bn in 2016. The assets in 2016 included €4.8bn in cash deposits.}}</ref>}} and the reclassification of technology and pharmaceutical corporate balance sheets following the closure of the Double Irish tax scheme in 2014,<ref>{{cite news| url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/14/ireland-abolish-double-irish-tax-scheme-apple| title=Ireland Abolish Double Irish Tax Scheme| newspaper=[[The Guardian]]| date=14 October 2014| quote=Ireland has officially announced the phased abolition of its controversial “Double Irish” tax scheme that has enabled multinationals such as Apple to dramatically cut down their tax bills| access-date=19 March 2018| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180104073108/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/14/ireland-abolish-double-irish-tax-scheme-apple| archive-date=4 January 2018| url-status=live| df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite news| url=https://www.ft.com/content/ba95cff0-4fcd-11e4-a0a4-00144feab7de| title=Brussels in crackdown on 'Double Irish' tax loophole| newspaper=[[The Financial Times]]| date=October 2014| access-date=26 August 2018| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180722112759/https://www.ft.com/content/ba95cff0-4fcd-11e4-a0a4-00144feab7de| archive-date=22 July 2018| url-status=live| df=dmy-all}}</ref> despite the fact that existing users of the Double Irish, which Noonan was referring to, had until 2020 to switch out of their Irish BEPS tool.<ref name="guardian">{{cite news| url=https://theconversation.com/irelands-move-to-close-the-double-irish-tax-loophole-unlikely-to-bother-apple-google-33011| title=Ireland's move to close the 'Double Irish' tax loophole unlikely to bother Apple, Google| newspaper=[[The Guardian]]| date=October 2014| quote=First, existing companies incorporated in Ireland will enjoy a long “grandfather” period. In particular, the new rule will not be applicable to these companies – including the Irish subsidiaries of Google and Microsoft – until 2021| author=Anthony Ting| access-date=26 August 2018| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180722114227/http://theconversation.com/irelands-move-to-close-the-double-irish-tax-loophole-unlikely-to-bother-apple-google-33011| archive-date=22 July 2018| url-status=live| df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/handful-of-multinationals-behind-26-3-growth-in-gdp-1.2719047?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fhandful-of-multinationals-behind-26-3-growth-in-gdp-1.2719047|title=Handful of multinationals behind 26.3% growth in GDP|newspaper=Irish Times|date=12 July 2016|quote=A handful of multinational companies in the tech, pharma and aircraft leasing sectors were responsible for an extraordinary jump in Ireland’s headline rate of economic growth last year|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319213831/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/handful-of-multinationals-behind-26-3-growth-in-gdp-1.2719047?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fhandful-of-multinationals-behind-26-3-growth-in-gdp-1.2719047|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

On 13 July 2016, the ex-Governor of the [[Central Bank of Ireland]] made the following comment:

{{quote|The statistical distortions created by the impact on the Irish National Accounts of the global assets and activities of a handful of large multinational corporations have now become so large as to make a mockery of conventional uses of Irish GDP.|author=[[Patrick Honohan]], ex-Governor of the [[Central Bank of Ireland]], 13 July 2016<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2016/07/13/the-irish-national-accounts-towards-some-dos-and-donts/|title=The Irish National Accounts: Towards some do's and don'ts|publisher=irisheconomy.ie|date=13 July 2016|author=Patrick Honohan|access-date=28 April 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180429030914/http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2016/07/13/the-irish-national-accounts-towards-some-dos-and-donts/|archive-date=29 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author-link=Patrick Honohan}}</ref>}}

The delay by the Central Statistics Office in publishing revisions to Q1 2015 data (the period in which the growth appeared), as well as the redaction of regular data from 2016 to 2017, meant that it would take almost three years for economists to show {{slink|#Proof of Apple (2018)}} in Q1 2018. In addition, the Central Statistics Office further obfuscated the picture by asserting that the "leprechaun economics" growth was not attributable to a main source, but was from several sources and part of Ireland's position as a ''Modernised Global Economy''.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/newsevents/documents/seminars/globalisationinireland/Globalisation_-_Meeting_the_Measurement_Challenges_-_Michael_Connolly,_CSO.pdf|title=Challenges of Measuring the Modern Global Economy|author=Michael Connolly|publisher=[[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)]]|date=November 2016|access-date=17 May 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180514064935/http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/newsevents/documents/seminars/globalisationinireland/Globalisation_-_Meeting_the_Measurement_Challenges_-_Michael_Connolly,_CSO.pdf|archive-date=14 May 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

While the Double Irish was a widely used Irish BEPS tool, Apple's Irish subsidiary, ASI, used a hybrid version approved by the Irish [[Revenue Commissioners|Revenue]], which the EU Commission argued was state aid. In September 2016, the Central Statistics Office again denied this claim and repeated its assertion that the growth was from a range of sources including aircraft leasing.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-not-all-down-to-apple-move-insists-cso-35034545.html|title='Leprechaun Economics' not all down to Apple move, insists CSO|quote=Last night, CSO statistician Andrew McManus insisted that the earlier guidance had been correct. "There were a number of factors involved. That was the situation then and now," he said.|newspaper=Irish Independent|date=9 September 2016|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319214126/https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-not-all-down-to-apple-move-insists-cso-35034545.html|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

By early 2017, research in the [[MIT Sloan School of Management|Sloan School of Management]] in the [[Massachusetts Institute of Technology]], using the limited data released by the Irish Central Statistics Office, concluded: ''While corporate inversions and aircraft leasing firms were credited for increasing Irish [2015] GDP, the impact may have been exaggerated''.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.slideshare.net/DanielTierney4/finding-gold-in-leprechaun-economics-an-analysis-of-irelands-recent-macroeconomic-growth-and-subsequent-market-responses|title=Finding "Gold" in Leprechaun Economics|publisher=[[MIT Sloan School of Management]]|author=Daniel Tierney|date=2017|page=5,28,30}}</ref>

The use by Ireland of complex data protection and data privacy laws, such as contained in the 1993 Statistics Act, to protect Irish BEPS tools and Irish corporate tax avoidance schemes is documented by ''tax justice'' groups. The Irish Central Statistics Office was accused of "[[putting on the green jersey]]" to hide Apple's tax planning schemes, by some Irish political opposition groups.<ref>{{cite book|title='Leprechaun economics' has damaged the reputation of Ireland's economic data|author=Pearse Doherty|publisher=[[Sinn Féin]]|date=November 2016|author-link=Pearse Doherty}}</ref> The Central Statistics Office (Ireland) did not list [[Modified gross national income|Modified GNI]] (discussed later) in their ''Key Summary Economic Indicitors'' for September 2018, but only GDP, GNP and Debt-to-GDP.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.cso.ie/indicators/Maintable.aspx|title=Key Economic Indicators|publisher=[[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)]]|date=2018|access-date=1 September 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180826220045/https://www.cso.ie/indicators/Maintable.aspx|archive-date=26 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

===EU GDP levy===
In July 2016, the Irish media reported that while the drivers of Ireland's "leprechaun economics" growth might not have produced tangible additional tax revenues for Ireland, the 26.3%{{efn|name=upgrade}} rise in Ireland's GDP directly increased the due cost of Ireland's annual [[Budget of the European Union|EU budget levy]], which is calculated as a percentage of [[Eurostat]] GDP, by an estimated €380 million per annum.<ref name="lep1">{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/now-leprechaun-economics-puts-budget-spending-at-risk-34900812.html|title=Now 'Leprechaun Economics' puts Budget spending at risk|newspaper=Irish Independent|date=21 July 2016|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180320043912/https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/now-leprechaun-economics-puts-budget-spending-at-risk-34900812.html|archive-date=20 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="lep2">{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-pushes-irelands-eu-bill-up-to-2bn-36183349.html|title=Leprechaun economics pushes Ireland's EU bill up to €2bn|newspaper=Irish Independent|date=30 September 2017|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319215710/https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/leprechaun-economics-pushes-irelands-eu-bill-up-to-2bn-36183349.html|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="bbgquint">{{cite web|url=https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/-leprechaun-economics-earn-ireland-ridicule-443-million-bill|title="Leprechaun Economics" Earn Ireland Ridicule, $443 Million Bill|author1=Mark Deen|author2=Dara Doyle|date=13 July 2016|access-date=27 April 2019|publisher=[[Bloomberg News]]|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190428000508/https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/-leprechaun-economics-earn-ireland-ridicule-443-million-bill|archive-date=28 April 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

In September 2016, the Irish government appealed to the EU Commission to amend the terms of the EU GDP levy to a GNI approach, so Ireland would not incur the full €380 million increase. There were unsubstantiated claims by the Irish government that the effective impact of the increase in the GDP levy would be reduced to circa €280 million per annum.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-to-avoid-eu-280m-leprechaun-economics-penalty-35072370.html|title=Ireland to avoid EU €280m 'leprechaun economics' penalty|newspaper=Irish Independent|date=23 September 2016|access-date=29 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180329184741/https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-to-avoid-eu-280m-leprechaun-economics-penalty-35072370.html|archive-date=29 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

The "leprechaun economics" affair prompted an October 2016 audit by Eurostat into Ireland's economic statistics, including questions from the [[International Monetary Fund]], however no irregularities were detected and it was accepted that the Irish [[Central Statistics Office (Ireland)|Central Statistics Office]] had followed the Eurostat guidelines, as detailed in the [[European System of Accounts|Eurostat ESA 2010 Guidelines]] manual, in preparing the 2015 National Accounts.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/leprechaun-economics-eu-mission-to-audit-26-gdp-rise-1.2761097|title='Leprechaun economics': EU mission to audit 26% GDP rise|newspaper=Irish Times|date=19 August 2016|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180629074316/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/leprechaun-economics-eu-mission-to-audit-26-gdp-rise-1.2761097|archive-date=29 June 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="europe">{{cite web|url=http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/IDAN/2016/587367/IPOL_IDA(2016)587367_EN.pdf|title=Economic Dialogue with Ireland Box 1: GDP statistics in Ireland: 'Leprechaun economics'?|page=3|publisher=[[EU Commission]]|date=8 November 2016|author1=J. Angerer|author2=M. Hradiský|author3=M. Magnus|author4=A. Zoppé|author5=M. Ciucci|author6=J. Vega Bordell|author7=M.T. Bitterlich}}</ref>

On the 8 November 2016, a report by the EU [[Secretariat of the European Parliament|Director-General for Internal Policies]] ("DG IPOL") on Ireland's "leprechaun economics" affair, noted that ''Detailed explanations are not provided, due to confidentiality rules aimed at protecting companies'', and that the [[International Monetary Fund]] had stated that ''Additional metrics better reflecting the underlying developments of the Irish economy should be developed''.<ref name="europe"/> The report concluded that: ''It is becoming increasingly difficult to represent the complexity of economic activity in Ireland in a single headline indicator such as GDP.''<ref name="europe"/>

==Introduction of GNI* (2017)==
{{Main|Irish modified GNI (or GNI star)}}
[[File:2020 EU ratio of GNI to GDP.png|thumb|Ireland has one of the most disparate GNI to GDP ratios in the EU.<ref>{{Cite web |title=GDP (current US$) {{!}} Data |url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD |access-date=2022-05-13 |website=data.worldbank.org}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) {{!}} Data |url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gnp.pcap.cd?year_high_desc=true |access-date=2022-05-13 |website=data.worldbank.org}}</ref>]]

===Pre-2015 distortions===
From early academic research on tax havens by [[James R. Hines Jr.]] in 1994, Ireland has been noted as a tax haven (one of Hines' ''seven major havens'').<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://taxdoctoralseminar.web.unc.edu/files/2016/02/Hines-Rice.pdf|title=Fiscal Paradise: Foreign Tax havens and American Business|author1=James R. Hines Jr.|author2=Eric M. Rice|quote=We identify 41 countries and regions as tax havens for the purposes of U. S. businesses. Together the seven tax havens with populations greater than one million (Hong Kong, Ireland, Liberia, Lebanon, Panama, Singapore, and Switzerland) account for 80 percent of total tax haven population and 89 percent of tax haven GDP.|journal=Quarterly Journal of Economics (Harvard/MIT)|date=February 1994|volume=9|issue=1|access-date=24 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170825172644/http://taxdoctoralseminar.web.unc.edu/files/2016/02/Hines-Rice.pdf|archive-date=25 August 2017|url-status=dead|df=dmy-all|author1-link=James R. Hines Jr}}</ref> Hines would go on to become the most-cited author in the research of tax havens,<ref name="respec">{{cite web|url=https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?form=extended&wm=wrd&dt=range&ul=&q=tax+haven&cmd=Search%21&wf=4BFF&s=C&db=&de=|title=IDEAS/RePEc Database|quote=Tax Havens by Most Cited|access-date=24 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181204123511/https://ideas.repec.org/cgi-bin/htsearch?form=extended&wm=wrd&dt=range&ul=&q=tax+haven&cmd=Search%21&wf=4BFF&s=C&db=&de=|archive-date=4 December 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> recording Ireland's rise to become the 3rd largest global tax haven in the [[James R. Hines Jr.#Hines 2010 list|Hines 2010 list]].<ref name="h1">{{cite journal|url=https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.ie/&httpsredir=1&article=1716&context=articles|title=Treasure Islands|pages=103–125|author=James R. Hines Jr.|quote=Table 2: Largest Tax Havens|journal=[[Journal of Economic Perspectives]]|volume=4|issue=24|date=2010}}</ref> As well as identifying and ranking tax havens, Hines, and others, including [[Dhammika Dharmapala]], established that one of the main attributes of tax havens, is the artificial distortion of the haven's GDP from the BEPS accounting flows.<ref name="be">{{cite web|url=https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2385&context=law_and_economics|title=What Do We Know About Base Erosion and Profit Shifting? A Review of the Empirical Literature|publisher=[[University of Chicago]]|author=Dhammika Dharmapala|date=2014|access-date=24 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180720094150/https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2385&context=law_and_economics|archive-date=20 July 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author-link=Dhammika Dharmapala}}</ref> The [[Tax haven#Inflated GDP-per-capita|highest GDP-per-capita countries]], excluding oil and gas nations, are all tax havens.<ref name="WPaidan.regan">{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/25/ireland-is-tax-haven-thats-becoming-controversial-home/?noredirect=on|title=Ireland is a tax haven — and that's becoming controversial at home|author=Aidan Regan|newspaper=[[Washington Post]]|date=25 April 2019|access-date=25 April 2019}}</ref>

In 2010, as part of Ireland's ECB bailout, Eurostat began tracking the distortion of Ireland's national accounts by BEPS flows. By 2011, [[Eurostat]] showed that Ireland's ratio of [[Gross national income|GNI]] to [[GDP]], had fallen to 80% (i.e. Irish GDP was 125% of Irish GNI, or artificially inflated by 25%). Only Luxembourg, who ranked 1st on Hines' 2010 list of global tax havens,<ref name="h1"/> was lower at 73% (i.e. Luxembourg GDP was 137% of Luxembourg GNI). Eurostat's GNI/GDP table (see graphic) showed EU GDP is equal to EU GNI for almost every EU country, and for the ''aggregate'' EU–27 average.<ref name="gnx1">{{cite web |author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]] |date=29 April 2013 |title=International GNI to GDP Comparisons |url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2013/04/gdp-and-international-comparisons.html |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319213831/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2013/04/gdp-and-international-comparisons.html |archive-date=19 March 2018 |access-date=19 March 2018 |publisher=Economic Incentives |df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="ber">{{cite web|url=https://www.socialeurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/p_imk_wp_175_2017.pdf|author=Heike Joebges|title=Crisis Recovery in a Country With a High Presence of Foreign-Owned Companies: The Case of Ireland|publisher=IMK Macroeconomic Policy Institute, [[Hans-Böckler-Stiftung]]|date=January 2017|access-date=30 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190412082814/https://www.socialeurope.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/p_imk_wp_175_2017.pdf|archive-date=12 April 2019|url-status=dead|df=dmy-all}}</ref> A 2015 Eurostat report showed that from 2010 to 2015, almost 23% of Ireland's GDP was now represented by untaxed multinational net royalty payments, thus implying that Irish GDP was now circa 130% of Irish GNI (e.g. artificially inflated by 30%).<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe-points-finger-at-ireland-over-tax-avoidance-1.3417948|title=Europe points finger at Ireland over tax avoidance|newspaper=Irish Times|date=7 March 2018|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180307095256/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/europe-points-finger-at-ireland-over-tax-avoidance-1.3417948|archive-date=7 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

===Climax of 2015===
Apple's Q1 2015 BEPS transaction implied that Irish GDP was now well over 155% of Irish GNI, exceeding even Luxembourg, and making it inappropriate for ongoing monitoring of the high level of Irish indebtedness. In response, in February 2017, the [[Central Bank of Ireland]] became the first of the major tax havens to abandon GDP and GNP as metrics, and replaced them with a new measure: [[Modified gross national income]], or GNI* (or GNI Star).<ref name=RTÉ5>{{cite journal|url=https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/0204/850115-leprechaun-economics/|title=Leprechaun-proofing economic data|journal=RTÉ.ie|publisher=RTÉ News|date=4 February 2017|last1=Whelan|first1=Sean|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180612143155/https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2017/0204/850115-leprechaun-economics/|archive-date=12 June 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

In July 2017, the ''[[Financial Times]]'' reporting on the new GNI* measure said: "The Irish economy is about a third smaller than expected. The country’s current account surplus is actually a deficit. And its debt level is at least a quarter higher than taxpayers have been led to believe"; and that "Embarrassed by what Paul Krugman, the economist, denounced as "leprechaun economics", Ireland's policymakers were determined to avoid a repeat".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.ft.com/content/dd3a6f1c-6aea-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa | title=Ireland's 'de-globalised' data calculate a smaller economy| author=Vincent Boland | date=18 July 2017 | access-date=2 February 2020 | newspaper=[[Financial Times]]}}</ref>

{{Quote|At this point, multinational profit shifting doesn't just distort Ireland’s balance of payments; it constitutes Ireland’s balance of payments.|author=[[Brad Setser]] and Cole Frank, Council on Foreign Relations, "Tax Avoidance and the Irish Balance of Payments", 25 April 2018<ref name="cofr">{{cite web|url=https://www.cfr.org/blog/tax-avoidance-and-irish-balance-payments|title=Tax Avoidance and the Irish Balance of Payments|publisher=[[Council on Foreign Relations]]|author1=Brad Setser|author2=Cole Frank|date=25 April 2018|access-date=25 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180428162831/https://www.cfr.org/blog/tax-avoidance-and-irish-balance-payments|archive-date=28 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author1-link=Brad Setser}}</ref>}}

The move was timely; in 2018, research using 2015 data showed Ireland had become the world's largest tax haven ([[Gabriel Zucman#Zucman-Tørsløv-Wier 2018 list|Zucman–Tørsløv–Wier 2018 list]]).<ref name="gbz">{{cite web|url=http://gabriel-zucman.eu/missingprofits/|title=The Missing Profits of Nations|quote=Appendix Table 2: Tax Havens|page=31|author1=Gabriel Zucman|author2=Thomas Torslov|author3=Ludvig Wier|publisher=[[National Bureau of Economic Research]], Working Papers|date=June 2018|access-date=25 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190402221958/http://gabriel-zucman.eu/missingprofits/|archive-date=2 April 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author1-link=Gabriel Zucman}}</ref><ref name="zuc10">{{cite news|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/corporations-push-profits-into-tax-havens-as-countries-struggle-in-pursuit-study-says-1528634659|title=Zucman:Corporations Push Profits Into Corporate Tax Havens as Countries Struggle in Pursuit, Gabrial Zucman Study Says|quote=Such profit shifting leads to a total annual revenue loss of $200 billion globally|newspaper=[[Wall Street Journal]]|author=Richard Rubin|date=10 June 2018|access-date=25 April 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190404203053/https://www.wsj.com/articles/corporations-push-profits-into-tax-havens-as-countries-struggle-in-pursuit-study-says-1528634659|archive-date=4 April 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="zux">{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-is-the-world-s-biggest-corporate-tax-haven-say-academics-1.3528401?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fireland-is-the-world-s-biggest-corporate-tax-haven-say-academics-1.3528401|title=Ireland is the world's biggest corporate 'tax haven', say academics|quote=New Gabriel Zucman study claims State shelters more multinational profits than the entire Caribbean|newspaper=[[Irish Times]]|date=13 June 2018|access-date=25 April 2019|author=Mark Paul|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180824044322/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-is-the-world-s-biggest-corporate-tax-haven-say-academics-1.3528401?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fireland-is-the-world-s-biggest-corporate-tax-haven-say-academics-1.3528401|archive-date=24 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="WPaidan.regan"/>

In Apri 2018, Eurostat welcomed GNI*, but showed it could not eliminate all BEPS effects (e.g. as the distortion in OECD [[Modified gross national income#2018 Debt metrics|Irish debt metrics]] showed).<ref name="eurostat1">{{cite web|url=https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cros/system/files/euronaissue2-2016-art2.pdf|title=Globalisation at work in statistics — Questions arising from the 'Irish case'|publisher=[[EuroStat]]|author1=Silke Stapel-Weber|author2=John Verrinder|quote=Nevertheless the rise in [Irish] GNI is still very substantial because the additional income flows of the companies (interest and dividends) concerned are considerably smaller than the value added of their activities|page=31|date=December 2017|access-date=24 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180428205432/https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cros/system/files/euronaissue2-2016-art2.pdf|archive-date=28 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

==Proof of Apple (2018)==
{{see|EU illegal State aid case against Apple in Ireland}}
[[File:Ireland Trade Good Discrepancy (1995-2017).png|thumb|Ireland: Trade Good Discrepancy (1995–2017). [[Brad Setser]] & Cole Frank ([[Council on Foreign Relations]])]]

===2018 filings===
Economist [[Seamus Coffey]] is Chairman of the State's [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]],<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/chairman-fiscal-advisory-council-theres-been-a-very-strong-recovery-we-are-now-living-within-our-means-36500320.html|title=Chairman, Fiscal Advisory Council: 'There's been a very strong recovery - we are now living within our means'|newspaper=Irish Independent|date=18 January 2018|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319214323/https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/chairman-fiscal-advisory-council-theres-been-a-very-strong-recovery-we-are-now-living-within-our-means-36500320.html|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> and authored the State's 2017 ''Review of Ireland's Corporation Tax Code''.<ref name="coffey1">{{cite web|url=http://www.finance.gov.ie/updates/minister-donohoe-publishes-review-of-irelands-corporation-tax-code/|title=Minister Donohoe publishes Review of Ireland's Corporation Tax Code|publisher=Department of Finance|date=21 September 2017|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180424214409/http://www.finance.gov.ie/updates/minister-donohoe-publishes-review-of-irelands-corporation-tax-code/|archive-date=24 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="coffey2">{{cite web|url=http://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/170912-Review-of-Irelands-Corporation-Tax-Code.pdf|title=Review of Ireland's Corporation Tax Code, Presented to the Minister for Finance and Public Expenditure and Reform|publisher=[[Department of Finance (Ireland)]]|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|date=30 June 2017|access-date=21 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180219112543/http://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/170912-Review-of-Irelands-Corporation-Tax-Code.pdf|archive-date=19 February 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> Coffey had analysed Apple's Irish structure in detail,<ref name="co4">{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2016/03/apple-sales-internationalby-numbers.html|title=Apple Sales International–By the numbers|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|publisher=Economics Incentives, [[University College Cork]]|date=21 March 2016|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319213740/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2016/03/apple-sales-internationalby-numbers.html|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> and was interviewed by the international media on Apple in Ireland.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/sep/30/apple-repay-millions-irish-government-tax-deal|title=Apple may have to repay millions from Irish government tax deal|author1=Charles Arthur|author2=Samuel Gibbs|quote=Seamus Coffey, an economics lecturer at University College Cork, who has examined Apple’s Irish tax affairs, said: “The EC can demand back payments for 10 years, which would take it back to 2004.”|newspaper=[[The Guardian]]|date=30 September 2016|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180319214527/https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/sep/30/apple-repay-millions-irish-government-tax-deal|archive-date=19 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> However, despite speculation,<ref name="kw1">{{cite news|url=https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/apple-tax-affairs-changes-triggered-surge-in-irish-economy-419912.html|title=Apple tax affairs changes triggered a surge in Irish economy|newspaper=The Irish Examiner|date=18 September 2016|quote=The Government has yet to admit that the enormous disruption to Irish GDP figures and the surge in corporate tax revenues was due to the actions of a single multi-national. [..] Karl Whelan, professor of economics at UCD, said a large part of the surge in corporate tax receipts and the huge GDP revisions can be attributed to the rearrangement of Apple’s tax affairs|access-date=29 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180330012241/https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/apple-tax-affairs-changes-triggered-surge-in-irish-economy-419912.html|archive-date=30 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> the suppression of regular economic data by the Irish Central Statistics Office meant that no economist could confirm the source of "leprechaun economics" was Apple.

On 24 January 2018, Coffey published a long analysis on his respected economics blog, confirming the data now proved Apple was the source:<ref name="co1">{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2018/01/what-apple-did-next.html|title=What Apple did next|publisher=Economic Perspectives, [[University College Cork]]|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|date=24 January 2018|access-date=19 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180330153810/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.ie/2018/01/what-apple-did-next.html|archive-date=30 March 2018|url-status=dead|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

{{Quote|We know Apple changed its structure from the first of January 2015. This is described in section 2.5.7 on page 42 of the EU Commission's decision [on Apple's State aid case].<ref name="eu1">{{Cite web|url=http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/cases/253200/253200_1851004_674_2.pdf|title=Commission Decision of 30.8.2016 on State Aid Sa. 38373 (2014/C) (ex 2014/NN) (ex 2014/CP) implemented by Ireland to Apple|date=30 August 2016|publisher=[[EU Commission]]|quote=Brussels. 30.8.2016 C(2016) 5605 final. Total Pages (130)|access-date=1 September 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180417143234/http://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/cases/253200/253200_1851004_674_2.pdf|archive-date=17 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> This would be useful but bar telling us that the new structure came into operation on the first of January 2015 everything else is redacted. Although the details of the new structure were not revealed it was still felt that Ireland was still central to the structure and maybe even more so with the revised structure. Many of the dramatic shifts that occurred in Ireland's national accounts and balance of payments data were attributed to Apple but this was largely supposition – even if it was likely to be true. Now we know it to be true.|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], Economic Perspectives, [[University College Cork]], 24 January 2018<ref name="co1"/>}}

[[File:Ireland Balance of Payment Components (2012-2017).png|thumb|Ireland: Balance of Payments (2012–17). [[Brad Setser]] & Cole Frank ([[Council on Foreign Relations]])]]

Coffey's January 2018 post also showed that Apple had restructured into the Irish ''[[Double Irish arrangement#CAIA|Capital Allowances for Intangible Assets]]'' ("CAIA") BEPS tool. Apple's previous hybrid–[[Double Irish]] BEPS tool had a modest effect on Irish economic data as it was ''offshore''. However, by ''onshoring'' their [[intellectual property]] ("IP") from Jersey, via the CAIA BEPS tool, the full effect of circa US$40 billion in profits that ASI was ''shifting'' by 2015 (see Table 1), would appear in the Irish national accounts; and was equivalent to over 20% of Irish GDP.<ref name="co1"/> The IMF began to correlate the effect of Apple iPhone sales on the Irish economic cycle.<ref name="imf1">{{cite web|url=https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0417/955163-iphone-effect-on-irish-economy/|title=Quarter of Irish economic growth due to Apple's iPhone, says IMF|publisher=RTÉ News|date=17 April 2018|access-date=18 April 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180418162336/https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0417/955163-iphone-effect-on-irish-economy/|archive-date=18 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="imf2">{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/iphone-exports-accounted-for-quarter-of-irish-economic-growth-in-2017-imf-1.3464658|title=iPhone exports accounted for quarter of Irish economic growth in 2017 - IMF|newspaper=Irish Times|date=17 April 2018|access-date=18 April 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180418225318/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/iphone-exports-accounted-for-quarter-of-irish-economic-growth-in-2017-imf-1.3464658|archive-date=18 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:right"
|+Estimates of profits shifted through Apple's Irish subsidiary, Apple Sales International ("ASI") from 2004 to 2014<ref name="co1"/>
|-
!style="text-align:center"|Year 
!style="background:#cfc;text-align:center"|ASI Profit Shifted (USD m)
!style="text-align:center"|Average €/$ rate
!style="background:#cfc;text-align:center"|ASI Profit Shifted (EUR m)
!style="text-align:center"|Irish Corp. Tax Rate
!style="background:#cfc;text-align:center"|Irish Corp. Tax Avoided (EUR m)
|-
|2004||268||.805||216||12.5%||27
|-
|2005||725||.804||583||12.5%||73
|-
|2006||1,180||.797||940||12.5%||117
|-
|2007||1,844||.731||1,347||12.5%||168
|-
|2008||3,127||.683||2,136||12.5%||267
|-
|2009||4,003||.719||2,878||12.5%||360
|-
|2010||12,095||.755||9,128||12.5%||1,141
|-
|2011||21,855||.719||15,709||12.5%||1,964
|-
|2012||35,877||.778||27,915||12.5%||3,489
|-
|2013||32,099||.753||24,176||12.5%||3,022
|-
|2014||34,229||.754||25,793||12.5%||3,224
|-
|'''Total'''||'''147,304'''|| ||'''110,821'''|| ||'''13,853'''
|}

By April 2018, economists confirmed Coffey's analysis, and estimated Apple ''onshored'' USD 300 billion of IP from Jersey in Q1 2015 in the largest recorded BEPS action in history.<ref name=FORTUNE>{{cite magazine | url=https://fortune.com/2020/01/08/corporate-tax-haven-laws-loopholes/ | title=New Laws Meant to Close Down Tax Havens and Shut Loopholes Could Have the Opposite Effect | date=8 January 2020 | access-date=7 February 2020 | author=Erik Sherman | magazine=[[Fortune (magazine)|Fortune]] | quote=By April 2018, economists estimated Apple had onshored [to Ireland] $300 billion of intellectual property from Jersey in Q1 2015, appartently the largest recorded BEPS action in history. This was equivalent to over 20% of Irish GDP"}}</ref><ref name="cofr"/><ref name="brads">{{Cite web|title=Apple's Exports Aren't Missing: They Are in Ireland|url=https://www.cfr.org/blog/apples-exports-arent-missing-they-are-ireland|publisher=[[Council on Foreign Relations]]|author=Brad Setser|date=30 October 2017|access-date=30 April 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180429025322/https://www.cfr.org/blog/apples-exports-arent-missing-they-are-ireland|archive-date=29 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author-link=Brad Setser}}</ref><ref name="patrick.smyth"/> In June 2018, the [[European United Left–Nordic Green Left|GUE-NGL]] EU Parliament group published an analysis of Apple's new Irish CAIA BEPS tool, they labeled the Green Jersey.<ref name="emmaclancy">{{cite web|url=https://www.taxjustice.net/2018/06/25/new-report-is-apple-paying-less-than-1-tax-in-the-eu/|title=New Report on Apple's New Irish Tax Structure|publisher=[[Tax Justice Network]]|author=Naomi Fowler|date=25 June 2018|access-date=4 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180702064405/https://www.taxjustice.net/2018/06/25/new-report-is-apple-paying-less-than-1-tax-in-the-eu/|archive-date=2 July 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="emma">{{cite web|url=http://src.bna.com/zNy|title=Apple's Irish Tax Deals|publisher=[[European United Left–Nordic Green Left]] EU Parliament|author1=Martin Brehm Christensen|author2=Emma Clancy|date=21 June 2018|access-date=4 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180714041128/http://src.bna.com/zNy|archive-date=14 July 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="patrick.smyth">{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/explainer-apple-s-13bn-tax-appeal-has-huge-implications-1.4017044|title=Explainer: Apple's €13bn tax appeal has huge implications|author=Patrick Syth, European Editor|newspaper=[[Irish Times]]|date=13 September 2019|access-date=15 October 2019|quote=Apple has changed its own corporate structure, restructured a new Irish Beps tool called Capital Allowances for Intangible Assets (CAIA), also nicknamed the “Green Jersey”. The bookkeeping change was so significant that it contributed to the extraordinary one-off revision in Irish GDP for 2015 by 26 per cent (later revised to 34.4 per cent).}}</ref>

On 17 February 2020, Krugman tweeted, "So Tim Cook is the leprechaun in leprechaun economics".<ref>{{cite tweet|user=paulkrugman | number=1229478817678471169 | title=So Tim Cook is the leprechaun in leprechaun economics | author=Paul Krugman | date=17 February 2020 | author-link=Paul Krugman}}</ref>

===Further concerns===
[[File:Paschal Donohue (September 2017).jpeg|thumb|In 2017, Finance Minister [[Paschal Donohoe|Donohoe]] reversed the benefits [[Michael Noonan (Fine Gael politician)|Noonan]] gave Apple's 2015 CAIA BEPS scheme, but only applied it to new schemes.]]

The November 2017 [[Paradise Papers]] leaks, documented how in 2014, Apple and its lawyers, [[offshore magic circle]] firm [[Appleby (law firm)|Appleby]], looked for a replacement for Apple's Irish hybrid–Double Irish BEPS tool. The leaks showed Apple considering a number of [[tax havens]], especially Jersey and Ireland. Some of the documents demonstrated that tax avoidance was the driver of Apple's decision making.<ref name="apple">{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/world/apple-taxes-jersey.html|title=After a Tax Crackdown, Apple Found a New Shelter for Its Profits|newspaper=New York Times|author=Jesse Drucker|author2=Simon Bowers|date=6 November 2017|access-date=30 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171106192019/https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/world/apple-taxes-jersey.html|archive-date=6 November 2017|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41889787|title=BBC Panorama Special Paradise Papers Apple Secret Bolthole Revealed|work=BBC News|date=6 November 2017|access-date=21 July 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180801224622/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41889787|archive-date=1 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/apple-paradise-papers-tax-jersey-channel-islands-haven-latest-a8040981.html|title=Apple used Jersey for new tax haven after Ireland crackdown, Paradise Papers reveal|newspaper=Independent|date=6 November 2017|access-date=29 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180329185747/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/apple-paradise-papers-tax-jersey-channel-islands-haven-latest-a8040981.html|archive-date=29 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

Experts noted that it is prohibited under Ireland's tax code (Section 291A(c), Taxes and Consolation Act 1997), to use the CAIA BEPS tool for reasons that are not "commercial bona fide reasons", and in schemes where the main purpose is "... the avoidance of, or reduction in, liability to tax".<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.revenue.ie/en/companies-and-charities/reliefs-and-exemptions/capital-allowances-for-intangible-assets/index.aspx|title=Capital allowances for intangible assets|publisher=Irish Revenue|date=15 September 2017|access-date=29 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180324101652/https://www.revenue.ie/en/companies-and-charities/reliefs-and-exemptions/capital-allowances-for-intangible-assets/index.aspx|archive-date=24 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="rev1">{{Cite web|title=Intangible Assets Scheme under Section 291A Taxes Consolidation Act 1997|url=https://www.revenue.ie/ga/tax-professionals/historic-material/tax-briefing/2010/tax-briefing-issue-09-2010.pdf|publisher=Irish Revenue|date=2010|access-date=29 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171213200517/https://revenue.ie/ga/tax-professionals/historic-material/tax-briefing/2010/tax-briefing-issue-09-2010.pdf|archive-date=13 December 2017|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="ref2">{{cite web|url=https://www.revenue.ie/en/tax-professionals/tdm/income-tax-capital-gains-tax-corporation-tax/part-09/09-02-05.pdf|title=Capital Allowances for Intangible Assets under section 291A of the Taxes Consolidation Act 1997 (Part 9 / Chapter2)|publisher=Irish Revenue|date=February 2018|access-date=29 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180329120828/https://www.revenue.ie/en/tax-professionals/tdm/income-tax-capital-gains-tax-corporation-tax/part-09/09-02-05.pdf|archive-date=29 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>{{efn|This, if the [[Revenue Commissioners|Irish Revenue]] waived its anti-avoidance measures under Section 291A(c) to Apple's benefit, it could be construed as illegal EU State aid.}}

In November 2017, the Irish media noted that the then Finance Minister [[Michael Noonan (Fine Gael politician)|Michael Noonan]], had increased the tax relief threshold for the Irish CAIA BEPS scheme from 80 per cent to 100 per cent in the 2015 budget, which would reduce the ''effective'' Irish corporate tax rate on the CAIA BEPS tool from 2.5 per cent to 0 per cent. This was changed back in the subsequent 2017 budget by the new Finance Minister [[Paschal Donohoe]], however firms which had started their Irish CAIA BEPS tool in 2015, like Apple, were allowed to stay at the 100 per cent relief level for the duration of their scheme,<ref name="app2">{{cite web|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/budget/tax-break-for-ip-transfers-is-cut-to-80pc-36215540.html|title=Tax break for IP transfers is cut to 80pc|work=Irish Independent|date=11 October 2017|access-date=21 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180322015127/https://www.independent.ie/business/budget/tax-break-for-ip-transfers-is-cut-to-80pc-36215540.html|archive-date=22 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="app1">{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/cliff-taylor-noonan-and-donohoe-rule-switching-could-cost-1bn-next-year-1.3283383?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fcliff-taylor-noonan-and-donohoe-rule-switching-could-cost-1bn-next-year-1.3283383|title=Change in tax treatment of intellectual property and subsequent and reversal hard to fathom|newspaper=Irish Times|author=Cliff Taylor|date=8 November 2017|access-date=21 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180321151140/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/cliff-taylor-noonan-and-donohoe-rule-switching-could-cost-1bn-next-year-1.3283383?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fcliff-taylor-noonan-and-donohoe-rule-switching-could-cost-1bn-next-year-1.3283383|archive-date=21 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> which can, under certain conditions, be extended indefinitely.<ref name="ref2"/>

In November 2017, it was reported that the EU Commission had asked for details on Apple's new Irish structure post the EU Commission's 2004–2014 ruling.<ref name="eur1">{{cite news|url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-asks-for-more-details-of-apples-tax-affairs-d5w6qq0g8|title=EU asks for more details of Apple's tax affairs|newspaper=The Times|date=8 November 2017|access-date=21 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180321193135/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-asks-for-more-details-of-apples-tax-affairs-d5w6qq0g8|archive-date=21 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

In January 2018, when [[Seamus Coffey]] and others, estimated that since the Q1 2015 restructuring, Apple avoided Irish taxes of €2.5–3bn per annum, based on the 0% ''effective'' tax rate Noonan introduced for the CAIA scheme in the 2015 budget.<ref name="co1"/><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.businesspost.ie/business/apple-tax-bill-climb-e9bn-firms-dig-407710|title=Apple tax bill could climb by €9bn as firms dig in|author1=Jack Horgan-Jones|author2-link=Seamus Coffey|author2=Seamus Coffey|publisher=[[The Sunday Business Post]]|date=28 January 2018|access-date=30 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180331040329/https://www.businesspost.ie/business/apple-tax-bill-climb-e9bn-firms-dig-407710|archive-date=31 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> Coffey estimated that a second EU Apple State aid fine for the 2015–2018 (inclusive) period, could reach over €10bn, excluding interest penalties,<ref name="sbp">{{cite web|url=https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/e13bn-apple-tax-payment-may-not-end-story-407700|title=Why €13bn Apple tax payment may not be the end of the story|publisher=[[The Sunday Business Post]]|author=Seamus Coffey|date=28 January 2018|access-date=21 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180825073817/https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/e13bn-apple-tax-payment-may-not-end-story-407700|archive-date=25 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author-link=Seamus Coffey}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/47954|title=Apple could owe billions more in tax due to its restructured tax arrangements since 2015|publisher=[[Sinn Féin]]|author=Pearse Doherty|date=25 January 2018|access-date=21 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180321192822/http://www.sinnfein.ie/contents/47954|archive-date=21 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author-link=Pearse Doherty}}</ref> adding to Apple's existing €13 billion EU fine for the 2004–2014 period.

===Impact on taxation{{anchor|Did Apple decide to pay Irish tax?}}===

In July 2016, financial commentators were confused that Ireland had incurred €380 million per annum in additional EU GDP levies (earlier), but given Apple (in the 2015 budget, per above), an ''effective'' tax rate of 0% for the Apple IP that was ''onshored''. Some pointed to the benefits of "leprechaun economics" to Ireland's credit rating, and Debt-to-GDP metrics.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/sean-whelan-making-the-most-of-leprechaun-economics-325289|title=Making the most of leprechaun conomics|publisher=[[The Sunday Business Post]]|author=Sean Whelan|date=19 July 2016|access-date=29 March 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180330012605/https://www.businesspost.ie/opinion/sean-whelan-making-the-most-of-leprechaun-economics-325289|archive-date=30 March 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> In August 2016, however, Apple CEO [[Tim Cook]], stated that Apple was now "the largest tax payer in Ireland".<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.thejournal.ie/tim-cook-apple-taxes-ireland-2-2955751-Aug2016/|title=Tim Cook: 'Apple is the largest taxpayer in Ireland'|newspaper=[[TheJournal.ie]]|date=30 August 2016|access-date=1 May 2019|author=Peter Bodkin|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190416121255/https://www.thejournal.ie/tim-cook-apple-taxes-ireland-2-2955751-Aug2016/|archive-date=16 April 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="apple.largest.factcheck"/>

In April 2017, the [[Revenue Commissioners]] released Irish corporation tax data for 2015 showing a 49% increase, or €2.26 billion, to €6.87 billion in one year.<ref name="ct1">{{cite web|url=https://www.revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/research/corporation-tax-returns-2016.pdf|title=An Analysis of 2015 Corporation Tax Returns and 2016 Payments|publisher=[[Revenue Commissioners]]|date=April 2017|access-date=4 April 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171128143457/https://revenue.ie/en/corporate/documents/research/corporation-tax-returns-2016.pdf|archive-date=28 November 2017|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> The report also showed that "intangible allowances", which are claimed under the CAIA BEPS tool, jumped by over 1,000 per cent, or €26.2 billion in 2015 (from €2.7 billion in 2014), which was consistent with the euro amount of profits that Apple's ASI was ''shifting'' through its hybrid–Double Irish BEPS tool at the time.<ref name="co1"/> However, the €2.26 billion rise in corporate tax for 2015 looked similar to the effective tax ASI would pay in Ireland if it was not using Irish BEPS tools. No other company has been identified as the source of such a large jump in Irish corporation tax in a single year, as it required Irish booked profits of over US$30 billion.

Seamus Coffey posted several articles in 2018 on the rise in Irish "intangible allowances", which hit €35.7 billion in 2016, or €4.5 billion of Irish corporate tax avoided at the 12.5% rate.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/capital-allowances-and-companies-with.html|title=Capital Allowances and companies with Net Trading Income that is negative or nil|date=17 July 2018|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|publisher=Economic Incentives, [[University College Cork]]|quote=And we see that after the application of losses, and most importantly, capital allowances, the resulting net trading income of these companies with almost €50 billion of Gross Trading Profits in 2016 was zero|access-date=25 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180825212601/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/capital-allowances-and-companies-with.html|archive-date=25 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> This is consistent with 2018 research showing that the "Green Jersey" is the largest BEPS tool in the world. However, in the absence of confirming data, Coffey is reluctant to draw a parallel between the dramatic 2015 rise in Irish corporation tax receipts, which has carried into 2016, and any potential change of tax strategy by Apple from the additional EU scrutiny into Apple's Q1 2015 restructure.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-2016-aggregate-corporation-tax.html|title=The 2016 Aggregate Corporation Tax Calculation|date=17 July 2018|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|publisher=Economic Incentives, [[University College Cork]]|quote=And, again it highlights, that although the surge in CT receipts may have happened in the same year as the jump in GDP, they are not necessarily directly related. As with lots of things lately, capital allowances play a central role in this and it is to them that we will turn next|access-date=25 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180825212559/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-2016-aggregate-corporation-tax.html|archive-date=25 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

In May 2019, ''[[The Times]]'' reported that IMF experts, including Erik De Vrijer, Director of the IMF's European department, expressed concern about the lack of official understanding about the driver in the dramatic rise in Irish corporation tax receipts since 2014, and the implications for long-term State spending.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/risky-to-count-too-much-on-corporation-tax-imf-warns-ttpvlbkfl|title=Risky to count too much on corporation tax, IMF warns|newspaper=[[The Times]]|author=Paul O'Donoghue|date=1 May 2019|access-date=1 May 2019|quote=[Irish] Corporation tax receipts have surged in recent years, doubling from €5.2 billion in 2014 to €10.4 billion last year [2018]. Experts are unsure about what has caused this spike.|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190501063855/https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/risky-to-count-too-much-on-corporation-tax-imf-warns-ttpvlbkfl|archive-date=1 May 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> Section 815A of the ''1997 Tax Acts'' prevents disclosure of Irish taxation data, even to other officers of the Irish State, outside of the Irish [[Revenue Commissioners]].<ref name="apple.largest.factcheck">{{cite news|url=http://www.thejournal.ie/apple-biggest-taxpayer-ireland-facts-tim-cook-michael-noonan-2960327-Sep2016/|title=FactCheck: Is Apple really the "largest taxpayer in Ireland"?|quote=Revenue said: "Interactions between Revenue and individual taxpayers are subject to the taxpayer confidentiality provisions of Section 851A".|newspaper=[[TheJournal.ie]]|date=4 September 2016|access-date=29 April 2019|author=Dan MacGuill|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190427220418/https://www.thejournal.ie/apple-biggest-taxpayer-ireland-facts-tim-cook-michael-noonan-2960327-Sep2016/|archive-date=27 April 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

==Reverse leprechaun taxes (2019)==
[[File:EUROSTAT Ireland Gross Operating Surplus by Controlling Country, €million 2015.png|thumb|upright=1.0|'''Dominance of U.S. companies''': Irish corporate Gross Operating Surplus (i.e. profits), by the controlling country of the company (note: a material part of the Irish figure is also from U.S. [[Corporation tax in the Republic of Ireland#Corporate tax inversions|tax inversion]]s who are U.S.–controlled). Eurostat (2015).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/06/who-shifts-profits-to-ireland.html|title=Who shifts profits to Ireland|publisher=Economic Incentives, [[University College Cork]]|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|date=18 June 2018|quote=Eurostat’s structural business statistics give a range of measures of the business economy broken down by the controlling country of the enterprises. Here is the Gross Operating Surplus generated in Ireland in 2015 for the countries with figures reported by Eurostat.|access-date=20 November 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181120221020/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/06/who-shifts-profits-to-ireland.html|archive-date=20 November 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>]]

In October 2018, Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe introduced an IP exit-tax, which the ''[[Irish Independent]]'' described as being "to prevent a 'reverse leprechaun'".<ref name="reverse">{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/budget-exit-tax-move-has-reduced-risk-of-damaging-reverse-leprechaun-effect-37416963.html|title=Budget exit tax move has reduced risk of damaging 'reverse leprechaun' effect|author=Dan O'Brien|date=14 October 2018|newspaper=[[Irish Independent]]|access-date=13 November 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181014232153/https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/budget-exit-tax-move-has-reduced-risk-of-damaging-reverse-leprechaun-effect-37416963.html|archive-date=14 October 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> The new tax legislation classifies any gains realised in Ireland as a result of a multinational selling its Irish–based IP to another jurisdiction, as an Irish capital gain. While the Irish rate of capital gains tax was 33 per cent, the new legislation gave a lower rate of 12.5 per cent on IP capital gains; however this could be subject to change (or challenged by the EU Commission), and the rate brought into alignment with the general Irish 33 per cent capital gains tax rate.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.mhc.ie/latest/insights/irelands-budget-2019-introduces-a-new-exit-tax|title=Ireland's Budget introduces new Exit Tax|publisher=Mason Hayes Curran Law Firm|date=12 October 2018|author=John Gulliver|quote=While the early introduction of the regime was not widely anticipated, the good news is that the rate of the exit tax is 12.5% (the same rate of tax imposed on trading income) rather than the capital gains tax rate of 33% (subject to anti-avoidance rules).|access-date=13 November 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181113170013/https://www.mhc.ie/latest/insights/irelands-budget-2019-introduces-a-new-exit-tax|archive-date=13 November 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/business/budget/multinationals-hit-with-surprise-tax-on-assets-exiting-state-37402931.html|title=Multinationals hit with surprise tax on assets exiting State|date=10 October 2018|newspaper=[[Irish Independent]]|quote=It had been feared that the exit tax, one of five legally-binding anti-abuse measures to prevent aggressive tax planning, could have been applied in Ireland at the current capital gains tax rate of 33pc rather than the announced 12.5pc.|access-date=13 November 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181113165912/https://www.independent.ie/business/budget/multinationals-hit-with-surprise-tax-on-assets-exiting-state-37402931.html|archive-date=13 November 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

In October 2017, Seamus Coffey questioned whether "reverse leprechaun" taxes would have any effect on U.S. multinationals leaving Ireland:

{{quote|In 2015 there were a number of “balance-sheet relocations” with companies who had acquired IP while resident outside the country becoming Irish-resident. It is possible that companies holding IP for which capital allowances are currently being claimed could become non-resident and remove themselves from the charge to tax in Ireland. If they leave in this fashion there will be no transaction that triggers an exit tax liability.|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], "Intangibles, taxation and Ireland's contribution to the EU Budget", October 2017<ref name="ssc">{{cite web|url=https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_p5wXj7Q88MOGJxZVpLZGFNMUE/view|title=Intangibles, taxation and Ireland's contribution to the EU Budget|publisher=[[Seamus Coffey]]|date=19 October 2017|access-date=19 November 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190412194856/https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_p5wXj7Q88MOGJxZVpLZGFNMUE/view|archive-date=12 April 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>}}

==Legacy==
{{anchor|Leprechaun statistics}}

===Distortion of Irish statistics===
Since leprechaun economics, research groups and commentators have highlighted that many Irish statistics are materially distorted by "leprechaun economics" type effects:<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/everything-you-need-to-know-about-ireland-s-economy/|title=Everything you need to know about Ireland's economy|author=Douglas Broom|date=19 March 2019|access-date=25 March 2019|publisher=[[World Economic Forum]]|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190325121848/https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/03/everything-you-need-to-know-about-ireland-s-economy/|archive-date=25 March 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

* In October 2017, the U.K. health-care journal ''[[The Lancet]]'' reported that leprechaun economics was distorting the understanding of comparative Irish health spending.<ref name="lancet"/>
* In March 2018, the [[OECD]] showed that [[Modified gross national income#2018 Debt metrics|metrics of Irish public indebtedness]] were materially distorted by leprechaun economics.<ref name="oecd">{{cite book|url=http://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/OECD-survey.pdf|title=OECD Ireland Survey 2018|publisher=[[OECD]]|page=34|date=March 2018|isbn=978-92-64-29177-5|access-date=4 April 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180404202024/http://www.finance.gov.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/OECD-survey.pdf|archive-date=4 April 2018|url-status=dead|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="it1">{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2019-who-still-owes-more-the-irish-or-the-greeks-1.3625800|title=Who still owes more, Ireland or the Greeks|date=12 September 2018|newspaper=[[Irish Times]]|author=Fiona Reddan|access-date=15 September 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180912064327/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2019-who-still-owes-more-the-irish-or-the-greeks-1.3625800|archive-date=12 September 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name="irip">{{cite news|url=https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/national-debt-now-44000-per-head-35904197.html|title=National debt now €44000 per head|newspaper=Irish Independent|date=7 July 2017|access-date=7 April 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180407053502/https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/national-debt-now-44000-per-head-35904197.html|archive-date=7 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>
* In February 2019, ''[[The Irish Times]]'' highlighted that Ireland's world-leading employee productivity statistics, were likely as a result of leprechaun economics effects.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/productivity-the-leprechauns-are-back-1.3784267|title=Productivity: the leprechauns are back|newspaper=[[The Irish Times]]|author=Cantillion|date=7 February 2019|access-date=24 February 2019|quote=How did Irish workers get to be the most productive on the planet?|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190224173754/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/productivity-the-leprechauns-are-back-1.3784267|archive-date=24 February 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.finfacts-blog.com/2019/02/irish-workers-most-productive-in-world.html|title=Irish workers most productive in world or same as Italians|publisher=FinFacts|date=7 February 2019|access-date=24 February 2019|author=Michael Hennigan|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190224173454/https://www.finfacts-blog.com/2019/02/irish-workers-most-productive-in-world.html|archive-date=24 February 2019|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> In July 2019, the ''Irish Times'' drew further parallels with "Leprechaun Economics" and OECD statistics that "... suggested Irish workers were the most productive on the planet, ..."<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-labour-productivity-growing-at-three-times-eu-rate-1.3967173 | title=Irish labour productivity growing at three times EU rate | author=Eoin-Burke Kennedy | date=25 July 2019 | access-date=3 March 2020 | newspaper=[[Irish Times]]}}</ref>
* In September 2019, the [[IMF]], estimated that two thirds of Ireland's Financial Direct Investment (FDI) was "phantom",<ref name=IMF4>{{cite news | url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/almost-two-thirds-of-irish-fdi-is-phantom-imf-study-1.4012191 | title=Almost two-thirds of Irish FDI is 'phantom' – IMF study | newspaper=[[Irish Times]] | date=9 September 2020 | access-date=30 January 2020 | author=Martin Sandbu}}</ref><ref name=CLIFF4>{{cite news | url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/is-it-true-to-say-ireland-is-one-of-the-world-s-biggest-tax-havens-1.4016024?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fis-it-true-to-say-ireland-is-one-of-the-world-s-biggest-tax-havens-1.4016024 | title=Is it true to say Ireland is one of the world's biggest tax havens? | author=Cliff Taylor | date=12 September 2020 | access-date=30 January 2020 | quote=One recent report said that the bulk of the foreign direct investment here was “phantom” and driven by tax avoidance. Another said that we are one of the world’s biggest tax havens. [..] More leprechaun economics at work? | newspaper=[[Irish Times]]}}</ref> and referred to the underlying complications of leprechaun economics as, "Prominent cases include Irish GDP growth of 26 percent in 2015, following some multinationals’ relocation of intellectual property rights to Ireland".<ref name=IMF5>{{cite journal | url=https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/09/the-rise-of-phantom-FDI-in-tax-havens-damgaard.htm | title=The Rise of Phantom Investments | volume=56 | issue=3 | date= September 2019 | journal=[[Finance & Development]] | author1=Jannick Damgaard | author2=Thomas Elkjaer | author3=Niels Johannesen | quote=Prominent cases include Irish GDP growth of 26 percent in 2015, following some multinationals’ relocation of intellectual property rights to Ireland, and Luxembourg’s status as one of the world’s largest FDI hosts.}}</ref>

===Distortion of EU-28 GDP statistics===
By April 2018, economists noted EU-28 ''aggregate'' GDP was being distorted by Irish BEPS tools, and the Apple iPhone sales cycle.<ref name="brad">{{cite web|url=https://www.cfr.org/blog/ireland-exports-its-leprechaun|title=Ireland Exports its Leprechaun|publisher=[[Council on Foreign Relations]]|author=Brad Setser|quote=Ireland has, more or less, stopped using GDP to measure its own economy. And on current trends [because Irish GDP is distorting EU–28 aggregate data], the eurozone taken as a whole may need to consider something similar.|date=11 May 2018|access-date=13 May 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180514142152/https://www.cfr.org/blog/ireland-exports-its-leprechaun|archive-date=14 May 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all|author-link=Brad Setser}}</ref> By January 2020, economists had begun to realise that the Netherlands, as well as Ireland was also distorting EU-28 statistics, with the US [[Council of Foreign Relations]], in a note titled: "Leprechaun Adjusted Euro Area GDP", said: "The entire euro area's economic statistics now need to be adjusted to remove the distortions created by the tax transactions of large multinationals operating in Ireland and the Netherlands".<ref name=brad5/>

===Anti-Irish taxation measures===

In September 2016, Ireland became the first of the major [[tax haven]]s, to be "blacklisted" by a [[G20]] economy, Brazil.<ref name=BRAZ>{{cite news|url=http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-brazil-tax-haven-jbs-2-2990888-Sep2016/|title=Ireland is trying to get off a Brazilian black list for tax havens|newspaper=[[TheJournal.ie]]|date=16 September 2016|author=Paul O’Donoghue|access-date=17 May 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180517223213/http://www.thejournal.ie/ireland-brazil-tax-haven-jbs-2-2990888-Sep2016/|archive-date=17 May 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

In December 2017, the U.S. and EU introduced new anti-Irish BEPS tool tax regimes (e.g. the U.S. GILTI–BEAT–FDII regimes, and the EU Digital Service Tax).<ref name=R1>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/trump-s-us-tax-reform-a-significant-challenge-for-ireland-1.3310866|title=Trump's US tax reform a significant challenge for Ireland|newspaper=Irish Times|date=30 November 2017|author=Cliff Taylor|access-date=17 May 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180625213509/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/trump-s-us-tax-reform-a-significant-challenge-for-ireland-1.3310866|archive-date=25 June 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref><ref name=R2>{{cite news |url=https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/shakeup-of-eu-tax-rules-a-more-serious-threat-to-ireland-than-brexit-36130545.html |title=Shake-up of EU tax rules a 'more serious threat' to Ireland than Brexit |newspaper=Irish Independent |date=14 September 2017 |access-date=17 May 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180612141253/https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/shakeup-of-eu-tax-rules-a-more-serious-threat-to-ireland-than-brexit-36130545.html |archive-date=12 June 2018 |url-status=live |df=dmy-all }}</ref><ref name=R3>{{cite news|url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/why-ireland-faces-a-fight-on-the-corporate-tax-front-1.3426080|title=Why Ireland faces a fight on the corporate tax front|newspaper=Irish Times|author=Cliff Taylor|date=14 March 2018|access-date=17 May 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180402230923/https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/why-ireland-faces-a-fight-on-the-corporate-tax-front-1.3426080|archive-date=2 April 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref>

===Further use of the CAIA tool===
{{See|Capital Allowances for Intangible Assets}}

In July 2018, it was reported that Microsoft was preparing to execute a "Green Jersey" BEPS transaction.<ref name="em">{{cite web|url=https://www.businesspost.ie/news/irish-microsoft-firm-worth-100bn-ahead-merger-419721|title=Irish Microsoft firm worth $100bn ahead of merger|publisher=[[The Sunday Business Post]]|author=Ian Guider|date=24 June 2018|access-date=4 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180716111632/https://www.businesspost.ie/news/irish-microsoft-firm-worth-100bn-ahead-merger-419721|archive-date=16 July 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> which, due to technical issues with the TCJA, makes the CAIA BEPS tool attractive to U.S. multinationals. In July 2018, Coffey posted that Ireland could see a "boom" in the ''onshoring'' of U.S. IP between now and 2020.<ref name="seamus coffey green jersey">{{cite web|url=http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/when-can-we-expect-next-wave-of-ip.html|title=When can we expect the next wave of IP onshoring?|quote=IP onshoring is something we should be expecting to see much more of as we move towards the end of the decade. Buckle up!|publisher=Economics Incentives, [[University College Cork]]|author=[[Seamus Coffey]], [[Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]]|date=18 July 2018|access-date=24 August 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180804140642/http://economic-incentives.blogspot.com/2018/07/when-can-we-expect-next-wave-of-ip.html|archive-date=4 August 2018|url-status=live|df=dmy-all}}</ref> In May 2019, it was reported Microsoft moved $52.8bn of IP assets to Ireland.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/microsoft-moves-52-8bn-of-assets-and-its-asian-trading-operation-to-ireland-1.3903630 | title=Microsoft moves $52.8bn of assets and its Asian trading operation to Ireland | author=Mark Paul | date=25 May 2019 | access-date=29 January 2020 | newspaper=Irish Times}}</ref> In January 2020, the ''Irish Times'' speculated that [[Google Inc.]], was also considering using the CAIA BEPS tool, and noting that the CAIA had helped "trigger the Leprechaun Economics affair".<ref name=IT9>{{cite news | url=https://www.independent.ie/business/why-google-might-still-benefit-from-irish-tax-breaks-38830700.html | title=Why Google might still benefit from Irish tax breaks| author=David Chance | date=3 January 2020 | access-date=30 January 2020 |newspaper=[[Irish Times]] | quote=Apple restructured its tax operations in 2015 using the State's capital allowance for intangible assets (CAIA), helping trigger the so-called Leprechaun Economics effect that year when the Irish economy suddenly surged by 26pc}}</ref>

==See also==
* [[CAIA arrangement]]
* [[Corporation tax in the Republic of Ireland]]
* [[Criticism of Apple Inc.]]
* [[Economy of the Republic of Ireland]]
* [[EU illegal State aid case against Apple in Ireland]]
* [[Single malt arrangement]]

== Explanatory notes==
{{notelist|2}}

== Citations ==
{{Reflist}}

==External links==
* [http://www.cso.ie/en/index.html Irish Central Statistics Office]
* [http://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/ Irish Fiscal Advisory Council]
* [http://research.ucc.ie/profiles/B008/scoffey Seamus Coffey University College Cork]
* [https://www.irishtimes.com/business/apple-s-cash-mountain-how-it-avoids-tax-and-the-irish-link-1.3281734 Apple's BEPS tool explained], Irish Times Video

[[Category:Corporate tax avoidance]]
[[Category:Economy of the Republic of Ireland]]
[[Category:National accounts]]
[[Category:Taxation in the Republic of Ireland]]

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