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Permafrost contains large amounts of dead [[biomass]] that have accumulated throughout millennia without having had the chance to fully decompose and release their [[carbon]], making [[tundra]] soil a [[carbon sink]].<ref name="NRDC" /> As [[climate change|global warming]] heats the ecosystem, frozen soil thaws and becomes warm enough for decomposition to start anew, accelerating the [[permafrost carbon cycle]]. Depending on conditions at the time of thaw, decomposition can release either [[carbon dioxide]] or [[methane]], and these [[greenhouse gas emissions]] act as a [[climate change feedback]].<ref name="NOAA">{{cite web |url=https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2019/ArtMID/7916/ArticleID/844/Permafrost-and-the-Global-Carbon-Cycle |last=Schuur|first=T. |title=Permafrost and the Global Carbon Cycle |date=November 22, 2019 |publisher=[[Natural Resources Defense Council]] |via=[[NOAA]]}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Koven |first1=Charles D. |last2=Ringeval |first2=Bruno |last3=Friedlingstein |first3=Pierre |last4=Ciais |first4=Philippe |last5=Cadule |first5=Patricia |last6=Khvorostyanov |first6=Dmitry |last7=Krinner |first7=Gerhard |last8=Tarnocai |first8=Charles |title=Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming |journal=[[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences]] |date=6 September 2011 |volume=108 |issue=36 |pages=14769–14774 |doi=10.1073/pnas.1103910108 |pmid=21852573 |pmc=3169129 |bibcode=2011PNAS..10814769K |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Galera |first1=L. A. |last2=Eckhardt |first2=T. |last3=Beer C. |first3=Pfeiffer E.-M. |last4=Knoblauch |first4=C. |date=22 March 2023 |title=Ratio of in situ CO2 to CH4 production and its environmental controls in polygonal tundra soils of Samoylov Island, Northeastern Siberia |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |volume=128 |issue=4 |page=e2022JG006956 |doi=10.1029/2022JG006956|bibcode=2023JGRG..12806956G |s2cid=257700504 |doi-access=free }}</ref> The emissions from thawing permafrost will have a sufficient impact on the climate to impact global [[carbon budget]]s. It is difficult to accurately predict how much greenhouse gases the permafrost releases because of the different thaw processes are still uncertain. There is widespread agreement that the emissions will be smaller than human-caused emissions and not large enough to result in [[runaway greenhouse effect|runaway warming]].<ref name="AR6_WG1_Chapter92">Fox-Kemper, B., H.T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S.S. Drijfhout, T.L. Edwards, N.R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R.E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I.S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, A.B.A. Slangen, and Y. Yu, 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter09.pdf Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1211–1362.</ref> Instead, the annual permafrost emissions are likely comparable with global emissions from [[deforestation]], or to annual emissions of large countries such as [[Greenhouse gas emissions by Russia|Russia]], the [[Greenhouse gas emissions by the United States|United States]] or [[Greenhouse gas emissions by China|China]].<ref name="Schuur2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A.G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |s2cid=252986002 |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt}}</ref> |
Permafrost contains large amounts of dead [[biomass]] that have accumulated throughout millennia without having had the chance to fully decompose and release their [[carbon]], making [[tundra]] soil a [[carbon sink]].<ref name="NRDC" /> As [[climate change|global warming]] heats the ecosystem, frozen soil thaws and becomes warm enough for decomposition to start anew, accelerating the [[permafrost carbon cycle]]. Depending on conditions at the time of thaw, decomposition can release either [[carbon dioxide]] or [[methane]], and these [[greenhouse gas emissions]] act as a [[climate change feedback]].<ref name="NOAA">{{cite web |url=https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2019/ArtMID/7916/ArticleID/844/Permafrost-and-the-Global-Carbon-Cycle |last=Schuur|first=T. |title=Permafrost and the Global Carbon Cycle |date=November 22, 2019 |publisher=[[Natural Resources Defense Council]] |via=[[NOAA]]}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Koven |first1=Charles D. |last2=Ringeval |first2=Bruno |last3=Friedlingstein |first3=Pierre |last4=Ciais |first4=Philippe |last5=Cadule |first5=Patricia |last6=Khvorostyanov |first6=Dmitry |last7=Krinner |first7=Gerhard |last8=Tarnocai |first8=Charles |title=Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming |journal=[[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences]] |date=6 September 2011 |volume=108 |issue=36 |pages=14769–14774 |doi=10.1073/pnas.1103910108 |pmid=21852573 |pmc=3169129 |bibcode=2011PNAS..10814769K |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Galera |first1=L. A. |last2=Eckhardt |first2=T. |last3=Beer C. |first3=Pfeiffer E.-M. |last4=Knoblauch |first4=C. |date=22 March 2023 |title=Ratio of in situ CO2 to CH4 production and its environmental controls in polygonal tundra soils of Samoylov Island, Northeastern Siberia |journal=Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences |volume=128 |issue=4 |page=e2022JG006956 |doi=10.1029/2022JG006956|bibcode=2023JGRG..12806956G |s2cid=257700504 |doi-access=free }}</ref> The emissions from thawing permafrost will have a sufficient impact on the climate to impact global [[carbon budget]]s. It is difficult to accurately predict how much greenhouse gases the permafrost releases because of the different thaw processes are still uncertain. There is widespread agreement that the emissions will be smaller than human-caused emissions and not large enough to result in [[runaway greenhouse effect|runaway warming]].<ref name="AR6_WG1_Chapter92">Fox-Kemper, B., H.T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S.S. Drijfhout, T.L. Edwards, N.R. Golledge, M. Hemer, R.E. Kopp, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I.S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, A.B.A. Slangen, and Y. Yu, 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter09.pdf Chapter 9: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1211–1362.</ref> Instead, the annual permafrost emissions are likely comparable with global emissions from [[deforestation]], or to annual emissions of large countries such as [[Greenhouse gas emissions by Russia|Russia]], the [[Greenhouse gas emissions by the United States|United States]] or [[Greenhouse gas emissions by China|China]].<ref name="Schuur2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A.G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |s2cid=252986002 |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt}}</ref> |
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In addition to its climate impact, permafrost thaw brings additional risks. Formerly frozen ground often contains enough ice that when it thaws, [[Phreatic zone|hydraulic saturation]] is suddenly exceeded, so the ground shifts substantially and may even collapse outright. Many buildings and other infrastructure were built on permafrost when it was frozen and stable, and so are vulnerable to collapse if it thaws.<ref name="Nelson2002" /> Estimates suggest nearly 70% of such infrastructure is at risk by 2050, and that the associated costs could rise to tens of billions of dollars in the second half of the century.<ref name="Hjort2022" /> Furthermore, between 13,000 and 20,000 sites contaminated with [[toxic waste]] are present in the permafrost,<ref name="Langer2023" /> as well as the natural [[mercury (element)|mercury]] deposits,<ref name="Schaefer2020" /> which are all liable to leak and pollute the environment as the warming progresses.<ref name="Miner2021" /> Lastly, concerns have been raised about the potential for [[Pathogenic microorganisms in frozen environments|pathogenic microorganisms surviving the thaw]] and contributing to future [[pandemic]]s.<ref name="Alempic2023" /><ref name="Alund2023" /> However, this is |
In addition to its climate impact, permafrost thaw brings additional risks. Formerly frozen ground often contains enough ice that when it thaws, [[Phreatic zone|hydraulic saturation]] is suddenly exceeded, so the ground shifts substantially and may even collapse outright. Many buildings and other infrastructure were built on permafrost when it was frozen and stable, and so are vulnerable to collapse if it thaws.<ref name="Nelson2002" /> Estimates suggest nearly 70% of such infrastructure is at risk by 2050, and that the associated costs could rise to tens of billions of dollars in the second half of the century.<ref name="Hjort2022" /> Furthermore, between 13,000 and 20,000 sites contaminated with [[toxic waste]] are present in the permafrost,<ref name="Langer2023" /> as well as the natural [[mercury (element)|mercury]] deposits,<ref name="Schaefer2020" /> which are all liable to leak and pollute the environment as the warming progresses.<ref name="Miner2021" /> Lastly, concerns have been raised about the potential for [[Pathogenic microorganisms in frozen environments|pathogenic microorganisms surviving the thaw]] and contributing to future [[pandemic]]s.<ref name="Alempic2023" /><ref name="Alund2023" /> However, the scientific consensus is that this particular riskisspeculative and implausible.<ref name="Yong2014" /><ref name="Doucleff2020" /><ref name="Wu2022" /> |
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