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[[File:Kopp 2023 4 contributions.png|thumb|upright=1.35|The main contributors to sea level rise, and how much they are expected to add by the end of the century under the low-emission scenario ("SSP1-2.6") and the high-emission scenario ("SSP5-8.5"). The Antarctic ice sheet is the least certain contributor <ref name="Kopp2023">{{cite journal |last1=Kopp |first1=Robert E. |last2=Garner |first2=Gregory G. |last3=Hermans |first3=Tim H. J. |last4=Jha |first4=Shantenu |last5=Kumar |first5=Praveen |last6=Reedy |first6=Alexander |last7=Slangen |first7=Aimée B. A. |last8=Turilli |first8=Matteo |last9=Edwards |first9=Tamsin L. |last10=Gregory |first10=Jonathan M. |last11=Koubbe |first11=George |last12=Levermann |first12=Anders |last13=Merzky |first13=Andre |last14=Nowicki |first14=Sophie |last15=Palmer |first15=Matthew D. |last16=Smith |first16=Chris |title=The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |journal=The Cryosphere |date=21 December 2023 |volume=16 |issue=24 |pages=7461–7489 |doi=10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2023GMD....16.7461K}}</ref> ]] |
[[File:Kopp 2023 4 contributions.png|thumb|upright=1.35|The main contributors to sea level rise, and how much they are expected to add by the end of the century under the low-emission scenario ("SSP1-2.6") and the high-emission scenario ("SSP5-8.5"). The Antarctic ice sheet is the least certain contributor <ref name="Kopp2023">{{cite journal |last1=Kopp |first1=Robert E. |last2=Garner |first2=Gregory G. |last3=Hermans |first3=Tim H. J. |last4=Jha |first4=Shantenu |last5=Kumar |first5=Praveen |last6=Reedy |first6=Alexander |last7=Slangen |first7=Aimée B. A. |last8=Turilli |first8=Matteo |last9=Edwards |first9=Tamsin L. |last10=Gregory |first10=Jonathan M. |last11=Koubbe |first11=George |last12=Levermann |first12=Anders |last13=Merzky |first13=Andre |last14=Nowicki |first14=Sophie |last15=Palmer |first15=Matthew D. |last16=Smith |first16=Chris |title=The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change |journal=The Cryosphere |date=21 December 2023 |volume=16 |issue=24 |pages=7461–7489 |doi=10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2023GMD....16.7461K}}</ref> ]] |
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The three main reasons warming causes global sea level to rise are [[Thermal expansion#Expansion in liquids|the expansion of oceans due to heating]], water inflow from melting ice sheets and water inflow from glaciers. |
The three main reasons warming causes global sea level to rise are [[Thermal expansion#Expansion in liquids|the expansion of oceans due to heating]], water inflow from melting ice sheets and water inflow from glaciers. Glacier retreat and ocean expansion have dominated sea level rise since the start of the 20th century.<ref name="Mengel2016" /> Some of the losses from glaciers are offset when [[precipitation]] falls as snow, accumulates and over time forms glacial ice. If precipitation, surface processes and ice loss at the edge [[Glacier mass balance|balance]] each other, sea level remains the same. Because of this precipitation began as water vapor evaporated from the ocean surface, [[effects of climate change on the water cycle]] can even increase ice build-up. However, this effect is not enough to fully offset ice losses, and sea level rise continues to accelerate.<ref name="AR6_WGII_Chapter9" /><ref name="IMBIE2018" /><ref name="Rignot2019" /><ref name="Zwally2021" /> |
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The contributions of the two large ice sheets, in [[Greenland ice sheet|Greenland]] and [[Antarctic ice sheet|Antarctica]], are likely to increase in the 21st century.<ref name="Mengel2016">{{cite journal |last1=Mengel |first1=Matthias |last2=Levermann |first2=Anders |last3=Frieler |first3=Katja |last4=Robinson |first4=Alexander |last5=Marzeion |first5=Ben |last6=Winkelmann |first6=Ricarda |title=Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=8 March 2016 |volume=113 |issue=10 |pages=2597–2602 |doi=10.1073/pnas.1500515113 |pmc=4791025 |pmid=26903648 |bibcode=2016PNAS..113.2597M |doi-access=free}}</ref> They store most of the land ice (~99.5%) and have a sea-level equivalent (SLE) of {{Convert|7.4|m|ftin|abbr=on}} for Greenland and {{Convert|58.3|m|ftin|abbr=on}} for Antarctica.<ref name="WCRP2018"/> Thus, melting of all the ice on Earth would result in about {{Convert|70|m|ftin|abbr=on}} of sea level rise,<ref>{{cite web |title=How would sea level change if all glaciers melted? |url=https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-would-sea-level-change-if-all-glaciers-melted |website=United States Geological Survey |access-date=15 January 2024}}</ref> although this would require at least 10,000 years and up to {{convert|10|C-change|F-change}} of global warming.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref name="ArmstrongMcKayExplainer" /> |
The contributions of the two large ice sheets, in [[Greenland ice sheet|Greenland]] and [[Antarctic ice sheet|Antarctica]], are likely to increase in the 21st century.<ref name="Mengel2016">{{cite journal |last1=Mengel |first1=Matthias |last2=Levermann |first2=Anders |last3=Frieler |first3=Katja |last4=Robinson |first4=Alexander |last5=Marzeion |first5=Ben |last6=Winkelmann |first6=Ricarda |title=Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |date=8 March 2016 |volume=113 |issue=10 |pages=2597–2602 |doi=10.1073/pnas.1500515113 |pmc=4791025 |pmid=26903648 |bibcode=2016PNAS..113.2597M |doi-access=free}}</ref> They store most of the land ice (~99.5%) and have a sea-level equivalent (SLE) of {{Convert|7.4|m|ftin|abbr=on}} for Greenland and {{Convert|58.3|m|ftin|abbr=on}} for Antarctica.<ref name="WCRP2018"/> Thus, melting of all the ice on Earth would result in about {{Convert|70|m|ftin|abbr=on}} of sea level rise,<ref>{{cite web |title=How would sea level change if all glaciers melted? |url=https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-would-sea-level-change-if-all-glaciers-melted |website=United States Geological Survey |access-date=15 January 2024}}</ref> although this would require at least 10,000 years and up to {{convert|10|C-change|F-change}} of global warming.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref name="ArmstrongMcKayExplainer" /> |
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