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Contents

   



(Top)
 


1 Background  





2 Republican primary  



2.1  Candidates  



2.1.1  Declared  





2.1.2  Declined  







2.2  Endorsements  





2.3  Fundraising  





2.4  Results  







3 Democratic primary  



3.1  Candidates  



3.1.1  Declared  





3.1.2  Withdrew  





3.1.3  Declined  







3.2  Endorsements  





3.3  Fundraising  





3.4  Polling  





3.5  Results  







4 Independents and third-party candidates  



4.1  Candidates  



4.1.1  Declared  









5 General election  



5.1  Predictions  





5.2  Polling  







6 Notes  





7 References  





8 External links  














2024 United States Senate election in Florida







 

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2024 United States Senate election in Florida

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Rick Scott
Republican



The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Rick Scott was elected with 50.05% of the vote in 2018. He is running for re-election to a second term in office.

Primary elections will take place on August 20, 2024.[1]

Background

[edit]

Long one of the core swing states, Florida has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now considered to be a moderately red state at the federal level, with Donald Trump carrying Florida by about three and a half percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.[2]

As a result of that trend, Republicans have seen much more success in the state in recent years. That was most prevalent when the Florida GOP saw landslide victories in the 2022 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. As of 2024, Republicans control both of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature, and a large majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation.[3]

Scott was first elected in 2018 by 0.1 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson.[4] With the benefit of incumbency and the state's rightward trend, most political pundits consider the race to be favoring Scott to win re-election.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Keith Gross
Organizations
Rick Scott
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
Statewide officials
State legislators
Territorial legislators
Local officials
Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Keith Gross (R) $1,927,634[a] $1,897,935 $29,699
Rick Scott (R) $20,967,042[b] $18,644,863 $3,782,782
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Columbus
Republican Keith Gross
Republican Rick Scott (incumbent)
Total votes

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Stanley Campbell
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Rod Joseph
Organizations
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Federal officials
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Labor unions
Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Stanley Campbell (D) $1,050,009[d] $278,753 $771,722
Rod Joseph (D) $28,595 $20,854 $7,741
Alan Grayson (D)[e] $518,990[f] $425,134 $97,894
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) $7,291,926 $4,541,326 $2,750,599
Brian Rush (D) $76,787[g] $41,579 $35,207
Source: Federal Election Commission[33]

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[h]
Margin
of error
Alan
Grayson
Debbie Mucarsel-
Powell
Undecided
Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research June 8–9, 2024 346 (RV) ± 3.3% 12% 43% 45%

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Stanley Campbell
Democratic Rod Joseph
Democratic Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Democratic Brian Rush
Total votes

Independents and third-party candidates

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[74] Likely R November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[75] Solid R November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[76] Likely R November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[77] Likely R June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[78] Likely R May 4, 2023
CNalysis[79] Very Likely R November 21, 2023
Split Ticket[80] Likely R April 9, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Rick Scott vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[h]
Margin
of error
Rick
Scott (R)
Debbie Mucarsel-
Powell (D)
Other /
Undecided
Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research June 8–9, 2024 883 (A) ± 3.3% 44% 40% 16%[i]
771 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 43% 12%[j]
The Tyson Group (R) June 6–9, 2024 1,050 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 33% 21%
CBS News/YouGov May 10–16, 2024 1,209 (RV) ± 3.9% 45% 37% 19%
Cherry Communications (R)[A] April 28 – May 7, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 54% 39% 7%
Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research April 15–17, 2024 865 (RV) ± 3.3% 52% 35% 14%[k]
815 (LV) ± 3.3% 53% 36% 12%[j]
USA Today/Ipsos April 5–7, 2024 1,014 (A) ± 4.1% 36% 26% 38%[l]
Emerson College April 3–7, 2024 608 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] February 29 – March 1, 2024 790 (V) ± 3.5% 44% 41%
Global Strategy Group (D)[C] July 5–10, 2023 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 44% 13%
Hypothetical polling

Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[h]
Margin
of error
Rick
Scott (R)
Phil
Ehr (D)
Undecided
Change Research (D)[D] June 27–29, 2023 1,298 (LV) ? 45% 41% 14%[m]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ $1,876,929 of this total was self-funded by Gross
  • ^ $7,939,463 of this total was self-funded by Scott
  • ^ Candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2022; candidate for Florida's 9th congressional districtin2018; write-in candidate for Florida's 6th congressional districtin2020; candidate for Florida's 10th congressional districtin2022
  • ^ $1,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Campbell
  • ^ Withdrawn candidate. Fundraising numbers as of March 31, 2024.
  • ^ $332,688 of this total was self-funded by Grayson
  • ^ $10,810 of this total was self-funded by Rush
  • ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  • ^ "Some other candidate" with 6%
  • ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 4%
  • ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
  • ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
  • ^ Includes "would not vote" with 3%
  • Partisan clients
    1. ^ Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce
  • ^ The poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Mucarsel-Powell
  • ^ This poll was commissioned by the DSCC
  • ^ Poll commissioned for Phil Ehr
  • References

    [edit]
    1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  • ^ "Florida 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  • ^ Fineout, Gary (November 9, 2022). "Florida Republicans get a 'win for the ages'". POLITICO. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  • ^ "Florida | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 16, 2023.
  • ^ a b c d e "Candidate Tracking System". Florida Department of State Division of Elections. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (April 11, 2023). "Keith Gross launches GOP Primary challenge to Rick Scott". Florida Politics.
  • ^ Caputo, Marc (January 26, 2023). "Sen. Rick Scott is running for re-election pushing his controversial 'Rescue' plan". NBC News. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
  • ^ Dorn, Sara (August 28, 2023). "DeSantis Team Denies Trump's Rumor He'll Drop Out Of Presidential Race To Run For Senate". Forbes. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  • ^ Greenwood, Max (December 14, 2022). "Rick Scott faces uncertain future after bruising midterm year". One GOP operative suggested Rep. Byron Donalds, a first-term congressman from southwest Florida, as a possible rival [to Scott].
  • ^ a b c Frisk, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "We Asked Every Member of the House if They're Running in 2024. Here's What They Said". Diamond Eye Candidate Report. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  • ^ "Sixty Days for 3.14.23 — A prime-time look at the 2023 Legislative Regular Session". U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, declining to challenge U.S. Rick Scott in 2024.
  • ^ "Republican Liberty Caucus Makes Endorsement in Florida U.S. Senate Primary". West Orlando News. April 13, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  • ^ "Endorsed Candidates". boltonpac.com. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
  • ^ Daugherty, Eric (October 13, 2023). "Rick Scott endorsed by Mike Pompeo for reelection". Florida's Voice. Archived from the original on October 13, 2023. Retrieved October 13, 2023.
  • ^ Gancarski, A.G. (December 5, 2023). "Donald Trump endorses Rick Scott for re-election". Florida Politics. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  • ^ a b "RJC PAC Endorses Champions of the Jewish Community, Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, for Re-Election". Republican Jewish Coalition. July 12, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  • ^ a b Ogles, Jacob (March 6, 2024). "Republicans in Florida congressional delegation back Rick Scott for re-election". Florida Politics. Retrieved March 9, 2024.
  • ^ a b c Gancarski, A.G. (April 27, 2024). "Rick Scott touts Puerto Rican leaders' support for re-election bid". Florida Politics.
  • ^ a b c Scheckner, Jesse (April 8, 2024). "'A stalwart defender of law enforcement': Rick Scott nabs endorsements from Ashley Moody, Pam Bondi, 11 State Attorneys". Florida Politics.
  • ^ DeLisa, Caden (February 26, 2024). "Wilton Simpson endorses Rick Scott for reelection". The Capitolist. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (January 30, 2024). "In effort to stamp out Primary challenge, Rick Scott nabs support from 80 Florida lawmakers". Florida Politics.
  • ^ Wilson, Drew (July 24, 2023). "Rick Scott earns endorsements from 59 Florida Sheriffs for 2024 re-election bid". Florida Politics.
  • ^ Gancarski, A.G. (June 27, 2024). "In latest show of strength, Rick Scott endorsed by 115 County Commissioners". Florida Politics. Retrieved June 28, 2024.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (June 26, 2023). "Senior citizen group endorses Rick Scott's re-election". Florida Politics.
  • ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (September 15, 2023). "Florida builders, contractors endorse Rick Scott's re-election bid". Florida Politics.
  • ^ "Club for Growth endorses Scott and dings McConnell".
  • ^ McCool, Jim (January 20, 2024). "Florida Realtors Endorse Rick Scott's 2024 Campaign". The Floridian Press. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
  • ^ Cooper, Amber (September 18, 2023). "Florida Police Chiefs Association endorses Rick Scott's 2024 reelection bid". Florida's Voice. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  • ^ Daugherty, Eric (March 25, 2024). "Rick Scott gains endorsement from local builders in reelection bid". Florida's Voice. Retrieved May 15, 2024.
  • ^ "Florida's Small Business Community Endorses U.S. Sen. Rick Scott for Re-Election". NFIB. May 13, 2024. Retrieved May 14, 2024.
  • ^ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
  • ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Florida". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved October 16, 2023.
  • ^ Fontenay, Blake (November 10, 2023). "Brother of 2 Live Crew rapper Luther Campbell challenges Rick Scott for U.S. Senate seat". Treasure Coast Newspapers. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  • ^ Derby, Kevin (February 23, 2023). "Rick Scott Plans to Hit Every County in Florida During Reelection Campaign". Florida Daily. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  • ^ "Former US Rep. Debbie Murcasel-Powell to challenge Rick Scott for Senate seat - CBS Miami". www.cbsnews.com. August 22, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2023.
  • ^ Perry, Mitch (November 20, 2023). "New group of Dem state lawmakers announce support for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". Florida Phoenix. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
  • ^ Fineout, Gary (October 18, 2023). "Challenger to Rick Scott drops out of Florida Senate race". POLITICO. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (June 11, 2024). "Alan Grayson withdraws from U.S. Senate race, files in SD 25". Florida Politics. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  • ^ a b c "Can Florida Democrats Find Anyone (at All) to Run for Senate?". March 27, 2023.
  • ^ Dixon, Matt (August 21, 2023). "Top Florida Democrat passes on challenging Sen. Rick Scott in 2024". NBC News. Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell is not running against Republican Sen. Rick Scott, a move she says is due to unfinished business in the state legislature.
  • ^ a b Covey, Erin (April 4, 2023). "Florida Senate: A Cloudy Forecast for Democrats". Retrieved April 4, 2023.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (September 6, 2023). "Anna Eskamani kicks off re-election campaign". Florida Politics. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  • ^ a b c d e f Ogles, Jacob (September 21, 2023). "4 Florida members of Congress endorse Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved September 21, 2023.
  • ^ Dixon, Matt; Allen, Jonathan (May 8, 2023). "Democratic donors hope to recruit NBA legends Grant Hill and Dwyane Wade to run for Senate in Florida". NBC News. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  • ^ a b c Ogles, Jacob (October 19, 2023). "10 sitting, former state lawmakers back Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 21, 2024.
  • ^ a b c Gancarski, A.G. (April 13, 2024). "Stanley Campbell trumpets endorsements for underdog Senate campaign". Florida Politics. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
  • ^ Caputo, Liv (June 24, 2024). "Democratic Senate Candidate Stanley Campbell Scores Florida AFL-CIO Endorsement". The Floridian. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  • ^ "2024 Candidates for Common Good". Vote Common Good. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (April 23, 2024). "Joe Biden backs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell during Tampa visit". Florida Politics.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (January 13, 2024). "Val Demings backs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  • ^ a b "GIFFORDS Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for US Senate". Giffords. August 23, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2023.
  • ^ a b Scheckner, Jesse (November 20, 2023). "Debbie Mucarsel-Powell adds 13 state lawmaker endorsements to U.S. Senate campaign". Florida Politics. Retrieved February 17, 2024.
  • ^ Scheckner, Jesse (February 16, 2024). "6 state lawmakers back Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". Florida Politics. Retrieved February 17, 2024.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (June 17, 2024). "Debbie Mucarsel-Powell announces endorsements from Black leaders across Florida". Florida Politics. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  • ^ "SEIU Florida Announces 2024 Early Endorsements, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Leads Pro-Worker Slate". SEIU Florida. May 16, 2024. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  • ^ "Brady PAC Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". Brady PAC. November 14, 2023. Archived from the original on November 15, 2023. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  • ^ "CHC BOLD PAC Endorses Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the Florida U.S. Senate Race". BOLD PAC. August 28, 2023. Retrieved August 29, 2023.
  • ^ "Senate Candidates". Council for a Livable World. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  • ^ "Elect Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and expand our Democratic Senate majority!". ActBlue. August 22, 2023. Retrieved October 1, 2023.
  • ^ Wang, Danni (May 11, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Election to the United States Senate". EMILYs List. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
  • ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Votes Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United | We the People, Not "We the Wealthy". January 18, 2024. Retrieved January 19, 2024.
  • ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  • ^ "Human Rights Campaign PAC Endorses Former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". Human Rights Campaign. February 21, 2024. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
  • ^ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
  • ^ "Latino Victory Fund Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for United States Senate". Latino Victory. March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  • ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  • ^ Ogles, Jacob (November 21, 2023). "Social Security-focused PAC backs Debbie Mucarsel-Powell". Florida Politics. Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  • ^ "Meet Our 2024 Candidates". Peace Action. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  • ^ McGill Johnson, Alexis. "ENDORSEMENT: Planned Parenthood Action Fund Backs Alsobrooks, Mucarsel-Powell for Senate". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved May 21, 2024.
  • ^ "Candidates". PODER PAC. Retrieved December 4, 2023.
  • ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for the U.S. Senate". Reproductive Freedom for All. February 8, 2024. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  • ^ "Vote Mama PAC | Candidates". Vote Mama PAC. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  • ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  • ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  • ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  • ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  • ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  • ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  • ^ "Category: Senate 2024 Ratings". Split Ticket. Retrieved July 17, 2024.
  • [edit]
    Official campaign websites

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