A September 2020 review noted the hypothetical possibility that the COVID-19 infection had already spread to Europe in 2019 by presumptive evidences including pneumonia case numbers and radiology in France and Italy in November and December.[1] However, a subsequent retrospective surveillance report determined there was no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Rome (Italy) during this period.[2]
Some medical and environmental analyses in Italy, France, and the US found results which suggested the virus was circulating prior to December 2019 by several weeks. A WHO report states: "the study findings were not confirmed, methods used were not standardized, and serological assays may suffer from non-specific signals". It urges further investigation of these potential early events.[3]
According to an ABC news report, the American National Center for Medical Intelligence shared intelligence in late November, based on analysis of wire and computer intercepts and satellite images, regarding a potential respiratory disease in Wuhan. This was denied by the Pentagon.[4] On 13 March 2020, the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese government records suggest that the first case of infection with COVID-19 could be traced back to a 55-year-old Hubei resident on 17 November.[5]
On 23 May 2021, The Wall Street Journal reported that newly disclosed U.S. intelligence obtained that three researchers working at the BSL-4 laboratory of the Wuhan Institute of Virology were hospitalized with COVID-like symptoms. The report added weight to calls for a broader probe into the theory that the COVID-19 virus could have escaped from a laboratory.[6][7] However, a WHO report states "introduction through a laboratory incident was considered to be an extremely unlikely pathway".[3] Since then, the head of the WHO COVID-19 origins investigative team, Peter Ben Embarek, has stated that the Chinese authorities exerted pressure on the WHO report conclusions, and that he in fact considers an infection via a researcher's field samples to be a "likely" scenario.[8]
Symptoms of the index case, or patient zero, began on 1 December.[9] The man had not been to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. His family was unaffected, and no epidemiological link was found between him and the other laboratory-confirmed cases as of 2 January.[9]
This was the onset of the first 41 people who were tested and later confirmed positive for COVID-19, as reported by the Wuhan City Health Committee and the WHO in 2020.[10]
Symptoms of three more cases began on 10 December, which were later confirmed by laboratories. These patients are known because they became hospitalized on 16 December and thus sampled. Their results were confirmed two of these three had no direct exposure to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, while the other did.[9]
The fifth and sixth cases that were later confirmed by laboratories first felt symptoms on 15 December. Both patients had direct exposure to the Huanan Market.[9]
According to news reports in February 2020—Workers Daily, Global Times—at the Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine and following the report from Doctor Zhang Jixian, the hospital immediately alerted the local CDC, Wuhan Jianghan Disease Prevention and Control Center,[14] however, the report of 22 January 2020 from the Chinese CDC seems to claim this contact falling on 29 December.[15]
On 28 December 2019, Dr. Lili Ren, a virologist at the Peking Union Medical College in Beijing submitted a complete sequence of SARS-CoV-2 structure to GenBank. The sequence was never made public as it failed to include the annotations required for publication, and attempts by the NIH to contact Dr. Ren went unanswered.[16]
On this day and the previous, three similar cases arrived at Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine, all associated with the seafood market. The health authorities had been informed, and medical experts from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, "a hospital designated to treat infectious diseases"[17] came to transfer six of the seven patients. Zhang Jixian took the further initiative to let doctors and nurses in the respiratory department wear face masks, and put out an order for 30 hospital coats of fine canvas.[18] The administration at Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine convened an interdepartmental panel of doctors, whose conclusions were the cases were unusual and required special attention, and also having learned of two similar cases in the city, decided to report their findings to the municipal and provincial health authorities, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission and Hubei Province Health Committee.[14]
The Wuhan CDC staff found also additional patients with similar symptoms who were linked to the market.[15] The Wuhan 'Center for Disease Control and Prevention' (CDC) is part of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Wuhan Central Hospital received a report from Beijing Boao Medical Laboratory stating that their sample (obtained 27 December) contained SARS coronavirus.[11] At the time, the laboratory only obtained a short partial sequence, which was rapidly shared with Vision Medicals, so that Vision Medicals could confirm that the sequence was SARS-CoV-2, i.e., roughly identical to the one they obtained 3 days before, and relatively distant to the original SARS coronavirus.[19]
Several doctors at Wuhan Central Hospital shared the test report on social media in discussions mainly aimed at colleagues.[11] As referred to by Caixin Online, from the social media account of Li Wenliang, it is stated that there are seven cases of SARS at Wuhan Central Hospital, all connected to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market.[11]
For Vision Medicals, too, these are hectic days (27–30 December) with the Chinese CDC requesting all results from Vision Medicals and from the Chinese Academy of Medical Science: "this was an urgent, secret and serious investigation".[19]
Wuhan Municipal Health Commission sent a hard-copy message to its affiliate institutions.[20] containing guidelines in confronting a possible outbreak of infectious pneumonia.[20] Two scanned copies also found their way, the same day, to the WeiboQQ service—a social media platform.[21][22][23]
Supervising doctors shall hold fast on discipline and create specialised team-units.
General staff must be alert to the situation, especially keeping an eye out for patients with symptoms of infectious pneumonia.
Statistical material must be gathered ongoingly and send to Wuhan Municipal Health Commission and Hubei Province Health Committee.
Statistical material for the previous week, relating to patients with symptoms of infectious pneumonia, is to be sent to Wuhan Municipal Health Commission before 4 o'clock, this day.
Without permission from authorized personnel, no one is allowed to spread information about the medical treatment.[21][22]
The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission released a briefing on its website about early signs of a pneumonia outbreak in the city.[29] The message conveys the impression of alertness, by summarizing 30 December's orders to the city hospitals; emphasizing ongoing scientific and clinical investigations and to seek hospital care when having persistent fever while showing symptoms of pneumonia; as well advising the public to wear face masks and to avoid enclosed public places and crowded areas.
Cases in total: 27
Serious cases: 7
Recovering: 2
As of now: no fatalities, no healthcare-workers infected, no signs of human-to-human transmission, cause of pneumonia infection still under investigation
The message on pneumonia of unknown etiology was picked up by Chinese news agencies, including the state television CCTV,[30] local news agencies (such as Hubei Daily[31]), and social media (such as the Weibo account of CCTV[32]People's Daily) said the exact cause remained unclear, and it would be premature to speculate.[33] Through the Weibo account "YangShiXinWen", CCTV also sent an alert about the unknown virus, adding that a team of experts from the National Health Commission would arrive in Wuhan.[30][32][better source needed]
Some international agencies also picked up on the reports, including Reuters,[34] Deutsche Welle,[35] and the South China Morning Post.[33]
Qu Shiqian, a vendor at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, said government officials had disinfected the premises on 31 December and told stallholders to wear masks. Qu said he had learned of the pneumonia outbreak only from media reports. "Previously I thought they had flu", he said. "It should be not serious. We are fish traders. How can we get infected?"[33]
In response to the announcement from Wuhan, Hong Kong's Center for Health Protection tightened their inbound screening processes. They announced that various "surveillance measures at all boundary control points" have begun—including thermal imaging for checks on body temperature.[36] The center appealed to the public to maintain hygiene, with detailed advice on washing hands and wearing a mask, and further precautions when traveling outside Hong Kong.[36] Hong Kong's Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan announced "[any suspected cases] including the presentation of fever and acute respiratory illness or pneumonia, and travel history to Wuhan within 14 days before onset of symptoms, we will put the patients in isolation."[33]
Tao Lina, a public health expert and former official with the Shanghai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said, "I think we are [now] quite capable of killing it in the beginning phase, given China's disease control system, emergency handling capacity and clinical medicine support." No human-to-human infection had been reported so far and more pathological tests and investigations were underway, an official said.[33]
The World Health Organization office in China picked up the media statement from the website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission on cases of viral pneumonia.[37] The WHO China office then notified the WHO Western Pacific Regional Office about the notice from the Wuhan government.[37]
The US CDC claimed to have "first learned of a 'cluster of 27 cases of pneumonia'" in Wuhan on this day.[38]
The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (CDC) implemented inspection measures for inbound flights from Wuhan.[39] Deputy director Luo Yi-jun raised the alarm with his colleagues after reading about the outbreak on the PTT Bulletin Board System.[40][41] Taiwan would end up having fewer than 500 total COVID-19 cases until September 2020.
^Allam Z (2020). "The First 50 days of COVID-19: A Detailed Chronological Timeline and Extensive Review of Literature Documenting the Pandemic". Surveying the Covid-19 Pandemic and its Implications. pp. 1–7. doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-824313-8.00001-2. ISBN9780128243138. PMC7378494.
^ abcdGao Y, Peng Y, Yang R, Feng Y, Ma D (26 February 2020). 独家|新冠病毒基因测序溯源:警报是何时拉响的 [Exclusive|Tracing the novel coronavirus gene sequencing: when the alarm sounded]. Caixin (in Simplified Chinese). Archived from the original on 27 February 2020. Retrieved 1 March 2020.
^Ren L, Wang J, Jin Q, Xiang Z, Li Y, Wu Z, et al. (4 February 2020), "Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate BetaCoV/Wuhan/IPBCAMS-WH-01/2019, complete genome", Nucleotide, GenBank, National Center for Biotechnology Information, GenBank Accession number: MT019529.1
^ ab张翀 [Chong, Zhang] (8 February 2020). "她最早发现新冠肺炎疫情苗头 立即上报可疑病例" [She first discovered the signs of a new coronary pneumonia epidemic and immediately reported suspicious cases]. 民生 [Society]. 工人日报 [Worker's Daily] (in Chinese). Archived from the original on 16 May 2020.
^ abcMarjorie P. Pollack (Mod.MPP), ed. (30 December 2019). "Undiagnosed pneumonia – China (HU)". ProMed. International Society for Infectious Diseases. RFI – Archive Number: 20191230.6864153 – via promedmail.org.
^ ab许雯 [Xǔ Wén] (31 December 2019). "武汉疾控证实:当地现不明原因肺炎病人,发病数在统计" [Wuhan CDC confirm: pneumonia infections of unknown cause has appeared in the local area, the number of infected people is being calculated]. 国内 [Inland]. 新京报网 [Beijing News Online] (in Chinese). 新京报 [Beijing News]. Archived from the original on 31 December 2019 – via bjnews.com.cn.
^ abChinese Human Rights Defenders (ed.). "关于做好不明原因肺炎救治工作的急通知" [Urgent notice on best practice for the medical treatment of pneumonia of unknown cause] (PDF) (in Chinese). Archived(PDF) from the original on 17 February 2020. Retrieved 14 February 2020 – via nchrd.org.
^杨小刚 [Yáng Xiǎo Gāng], ed. (31 December 2019). "武汉不明原因肺炎已做好隔离 检测结果将第一时间对外公布". 第一财经 [First Finance] (in Chinese). Archived from the original on 31 December 2019 – via yicai.com.
^Wuhan Municipal Health Commission (ed.). "武汉市卫健委关于当前我市肺炎疫情的情况通报" [Wuhan Municipal Health Department's message about our city's present pneumonia situation]. wjw.wuhan.gov.cn (in Chinese). Archived from the original on 9 January 2020.
^ ab"[新闻直播间]湖北武汉发现不明原因肺炎 国家卫健委专家组已抵达武汉" [Hubei Wuhan detect pneumonia of unknown cause, National Health Committee expert team soon to arrive in Wuhan]. CCTV-13 (in Chinese). 央视网(cctv.com). 31 December 2019. Archived from the original on 18 April 2020 – via tv.cctv.com.
^"刚刚,武汉市卫健委通报肺炎疫情:尚未发现人传人现象" [Just now, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission reported a pneumonia outbreak: No sign of human-to-human transmission yet]. News Center – Public Announcements. 湖北日报网 [Hubei Daily Online] (in Simplified Chinese). 31 December 2019. Archived from the original on 28 April 2020. Retrieved 30 April 2020 – via news.cnhubei.com.
^ ab湖北日报网 [Hubei Daily Online], ed. (31 December 2019). "武汉发现不明原因肺炎,国家卫健委专家组已达武汉" [Wuhan detect pneumonia of unknown cause, National Health Committee expert team soon to arrive in Wuhan] (in Chinese). Archived from the original on 4 December 2021. Retrieved 30 April 2020 – via py.cnhubei.com.
^ ab"Timeline of WHO's response to COVID-19". WHO. 9 September 2020. Archived from the original on 2 November 2020. Retrieved 9 November 2020. WHO's Country Office in the People's Republic of China picked up a media statement by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from their website on cases of 'viral pneumonia' in Wuhan, People's Republic of China.