 | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 61.0%  | |||||||||||||||||||
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Walz: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Tim Walz defeated the Republican nominee, former state senator Scott Jensen,[1] winning a second term.[2]
Jensen's advantage in rural Greater Minnesota could not overcome Walz's large lead in the Twin Cities metropolitan area, with Walz winning the election by a comfortable 7.7% margin. With his win, Walz gave the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party its fourth consecutive gubernatorial victory, the most in the party's history.[3] Furthermore, the DFL held the State House and flipped the State Senate, gaining a trifecta for the first time since 2012.[4]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz (incumbent) | 416,973 | 96.54% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Ole Savior | 14,950 | 3.46% | |
| Total votes | 431,923 | 100.0% | ||
The caucuses took place on February 1, 2022. A caucus is a local meeting where all who intend to vote for the Republican Party are able to select their precinct leadership, participate in a straw poll for governor, write and pass resolutions, and elect delegates to their local Basic Political Organizational Unit (BPOU). Those who were not elected BPOU delegates could become alternates and fill in for delegates who cannot attend the BPOU convention.[38]
A BPOU has boundaries based on the countyorstate senate district a voter resides in. The majority of these took place in March 2022. Elected delegates of each BPOU attended a convention relating to their district to vote on the resolutions passed at the caucus, complete party business, listen to candidates, and elect delegates to the state convention and their corresponding U.S. House District convention.
The Republican State Convention was held on May 13–14, 2022 in Rochester. 2,200 delegates were elected statewide to decide the Minnesota Republican Party's endorsement in all statewide offices. The endorsed candidate receives the party's backing, including money and resources, ahead of the August 9 primary.[39] Only one Republican, incumbent governor Arne Carlson in 1994, has won the primary without the party's endorsement. (Two Democrats, Mark Dayton and Tim Walz, won the Democratic primary against endorsed candidates.)[40]
At the convention, Scott Jensen won the endorsement with 65% of the vote on the ninth ballot, defeating Kendall Qualls. Mike Murphy, Paul Gazelka, and Neil Shah were eliminated on earlier ballots. All the candidates who contested the endorsement pledged to forego the primary if not endorsed.[40]
Qualls soon honored his pledge by announcing his plans to "return to private life."[41] Rich Stanek, the only major candidate who did not compete for the endorsement, did not file for the primary, leaving Jensen without major opposition.[24] He faced two minor candidates in the August primary.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Scott Jensen | 288,499 | 89.31% | |
| Republican | Joyce Lynne Lacey | 21,308 | 6.60% | |
| Republican | Bob "Again" Carney Jr. | 13,213 | 4.09% | |
| Total votes | 323,020 | 100.0% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grassroots—LC | Steve Patterson | 1,003 | 59.14% | |
| Grassroots—LC | Darrell Paulsen | 693 | 40.86% | |
| Total votes | 1,696 | 100.0% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legal Marijuana Now | James McCaskel | 1,461 | 51.86% | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Chris Wright | 1,356 | 48.14% | |
| Total votes | 2,817 | 100.0% | ||
The election's central issues were the economy, rising crime, Walz's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, education, and abortion access following the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
Walz campaigned on his first-term accomplishments, such as middle-class tax cuts, while making abortion rights a prominent focus of the campaign and attacking Jensen on abortion and his COVID-19 skepticism. Jensen attacked Walz over his COVID-19 policies, crime in the Twin Cities, inflation and gas prices, and education performance.[56]
Jensen was criticized for promoting the hoax that schools provided litter boxes to students who identify as furries.[57][58]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | DFL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Scott Jensen | Tim Walz | |||||
| 1 | August 3, 2022 | Minnesota Farmfest | Blois Olson | [1] | P | P |
| 2 | October 18, 2022 | KTTC/Gray Television | Caitlin Alexander, Jusitn Betti,
Stacy Steinhagen, Dan Wolfe |
[2] | P | P |
| 3 | October 23, 2022 | KSTP/Hubbard Broadcasting | Lindsey Brown, Tom Hauser,
Laura Lee, Peter Callaghan |
[3] | P | A |
| 4 | October 28, 2022 | Minnesota Public Radio[59] | Mike Mulcahy | [4] | P | P |
| 3 | November 4, 2022 | Twin Cities PBS - Almanac | Eric Eskola, Cathy Wurzer | [5] | P | A |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[60] | Likely D | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[61] | Lean D | November 3, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[62] | Likely D | October 12, 2022 |
| Politico[63] | Lean D | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[64] | Tossup | June 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[65] | Lean D | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[66] | Likely D | October 17, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[67] | Likely D | November 7, 2022 |
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Scott Jensen (R) |
Other [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | Oct. 10 – Oct. 30, 2022 | Nov. 1, 2022 | 48.0% | 43.7% | 8.3% | Walz +4.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight | Sep. 24 – Oct. 30, 2022 | Nov. 4, 2022 | 49.7% | 40.9% | 9.4% | Walz +8.8 |
| Average | 48.9% | 42.3% | 8.8% | Walz +6.6 | ||
 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
|
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Scott Jensen (R) |
Hugh McTavish (I-A) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[A] | Oct. 26 – 30, 2022 | 836 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 51% | 43% | – | 2% | 4% |
| St. Cloud State University | Oct. 10 – 30, 2022 | 235 (A) | ± 8% | 56% | 40% | – | 4% | – |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Oct. 17 – 19, 2022 | 1,091 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45.8% | 46.3% | 1.4% | 2.5%[c] | 3.9% |
| Embold Research[B] | Oct. 10 – 14, 2022 | 1,585 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 47.0% | 42.4% | 1.3% | 3.3%[d] | 6.0% |
| SurveyUSA | Sep. 30 – Oct. 3, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 40% | – | 4% | 7% |
| Cygnal (R)[C] | Sep. 24 – 26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47.6% | 44.2% | 0.4% | 3.0%[e] | 4.8% |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | Sep. 14, 2022 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47.7% | 45.0% | 0.8% | 1.7%[f] | 4.9% |
| Mason-Dixon | Sep. 12 – 14, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48.0% | 41.0% | – | 0.8% | 10.3% |
| SurveyUSA | Aug. 30 – Sep. 4, 2022 | 562 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 33% | – | 4% | 12% |
| Gravis Marketing (I-A)[D] | Aug. 17 – 19, 2022 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 53% | 36% | 6% | 5% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[C] | Jul. 18 – 19, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49.8% | 45.6% | – | – | 4.7% |
| Change Research[B] | Jun. 3 – 8, 2022 | 1,551 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 41.8% | 39.8% | 2.7% | 6.6%[g] | 9.0% |
| SurveyUSA | May 5 – 10, 2022 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 39% | – | 4% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA | Jan. 25 – 30, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 43% | 40% | – | 4% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA | Dec. 2 – 6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 48% | 36% | – | 5% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Michelle Benson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | January 25–30, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 45% | 37% | 8% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA | December 2–6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 47% | 35% | 4% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Paul Gazelka (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | May 5–10, 2022 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 36% | 7% | 15% |
| SurveyUSA | January 25–30, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 37% | 6% | 15% |
| SurveyUSA | December 2–6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 47% | 34% | 5% | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Mike Marti (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | December 2–6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 47% | 34% | 3% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Mike Murphy (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | May 5–10, 2022 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 35% | 4% | 15% |
| SurveyUSA | January 25–30, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 44% | 35% | 7% | 14% |
| SurveyUSA | December 2–6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 47% | 36% | 5% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Kendall Qualls (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | May 5–10, 2022 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 34% | 4% | 15% |
| SurveyUSA | January 25–30, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 43% | 35% | 6% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Neil Shah (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | May 5–10, 2022 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 34% | 6% | 16% |
| SurveyUSA | January 25–30, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 45% | 34% | 7% | 14% |
| SurveyUSA | December 2–6, 2021 | 506 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 48% | 31% | 5% | 16% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Rich Stanek (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | May 5–10, 2022 | 513 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 37% | 5% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | August 28–31, 2021 | 1,945 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Swing by countyLegend
Trend by countyLegend
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) |
|
1,312,349 | 52.27% | −1.57% | |
| Republican |
|
1,119,941 | 44.61% | +2.18% | |
| Legal Marijuana Now |
|
29,346 | 1.17% | N/A | |
| Grassroots—LC |
|
22,599 | 0.90% | −1.75% | |
| Independence |
|
18,156 | 0.72% | N/A | |
| Socialist Workers |
|
7,241 | 0.29% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,029 | 0.04% | ±0.0% | ||
| Total votes | 2,510,661 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 2,525,873 | 61.01% | |||
| Registered electors | 4,140,218 | ||||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | |||||
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Walz and Jensen each won 4 of 8 congressional districts, all of which voted for the same party in the simultaneous House Elections.[94]
| District | Walz | Jensen | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 45% | 52% | Brad Finstad |
| 2nd | 53% | 45% | Angie Craig |
| 3rd | 59% | 38% | Dean Phillips |
| 4th | 68% | 29% | Betty McCollum |
| 5th | 81% | 16% | Ilhan Omar |
| 6th | 40% | 57% | Tom Emmer |
| 7th | 31% | 65% | Michelle Fischbach |
| 8th | 44% | 52% | Pete Stauber |
All had pledged to honor the party's endorsement and forego the right to run in the Aug. 9 GOP primary, assuming there was no deadlock.
Thank you to everyone who has supported our campaign. While I have enjoyed campaigning across our beautiful state and getting to know so many of the delegates, I feel it is best at this time to suspend my campaign for Governor.
Last week, Jensen invited Thompson to the front of the room during a campaign stop, where he remained for the duration of the event, eliciting criticism from some conservatives. Jensen stands by this decision and has fired shots back at Gazelka for criticizing him.
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